ExxonMobil Expects 6% Global Oil-Equivalent Production Drop in Q1 Due to Middle East Conflict, Qatar LNG Trains Face Prolonged Repair
ExxonMobil anticipates an approximately 6% reduction in global oil-equivalent production for the first quarter of 2026 compared to Q4 2025, primarily due to ongoing Middle East conflict disruptions. The company expects Q1 earnings per share to be higher than Q4 2025, excluding unfavorable timing effects. Production disruptions, particularly impacting two LNG trains in Qatar which accounted for about 3% of 2025 Upstream production, are expected to require a prolonged repair period. Additionally, global Energy Products throughput is projected to decrease by approximately 2% in Q1 due to these disruptions and reduced crude availability in Asia Pacific. This update highlights significant operational risks and potential financial implications for investors.
Key Highlights
- ExxonMobil expects first-quarter earnings per share to be higher than the fourth quarter of 2025, excluding unfavorable timing effects that will reverse over time.
- Global oil-equivalent production is projected to decrease by approximately 6% in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025 due to Middle East disruptions.
- Two LNG trains in Qatar, representing approximately 3% of ExxonMobil's 2025 Upstream production, were impacted by attacks and are expected to require a prolonged repair period.
- Middle East assets account for approximately 20% of ExxonMobil's global oil-equivalent production and about 5% of global refining and chemical capacity.
- Global Energy Products throughput is expected to lower by approximately 2% in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025 due to Middle East disruptions and reduced crude availability at Asia Pacific operations.
- In 2025, ExxonMobil's share from Qatar LNG Joint Ventures was 628 thousand oil-equivalent barrels daily (koebd), and from UAE Upper Zakum was 312 koebd.