Orchid Island Capital, Inc. Q1 FY26 Results

On February 28, 2026, the markets turned sharply when war broke out in the Middle East after Israel and the United States attacked Iran. Up to that point, the Agency RMBS market was performing very well, the catalyst being a pronouncement by President Trump on January 8, 2026 that the GSEs would seek to buy $200 billion of Agency RMBS in an effort to drive mortgage rates down and the affordability of housing higher. Interest rate volatility continued to decline, as it has since April of 2025, supportive of the sector as well.  Away from the mortgage market, there were troubling signs in the economy as private credit concerns mounted, artificial intelligence began to emerge as a significant threat to software developers and many tech firms, previously the leaders of market performance over the last year or so, sold off dramatically.  Interest rates, particularly the 10-year U.S. Treasury, declined in yield over the course of February, falling below 4% and mortgage rates declined towards 6%. Prepayment fears mounted quickly, and in fact speeds did increase dramatically in March. These later developments began to erode the strong performance of the sector triggered by the President’s announcement on January 8, 2026.   “The onset of war dramatically changed things.  The immediate reaction was for interest rates to increase, risk markets – particularly the stock market – sold off, and implied interest rate volatility increased dramatically.  Mortgage sector performance deteriorated quickly as well. Mortgage spreads widened and ended the quarter slightly wider than the end of 2025. Orchid generated a negative 1.3% economic return for the quarter as our book value decline, caused by the widening of mortgages, offset our dividend by $0.10 on a per share basis. Since quarter end, the sector has recovered as implied interest rate volatility has retraced nearly all of the increase triggered by the onset of war and mortgages have tightened, reversing approximately half the war-induced widening as well. A final observation on the impact of the war would be to point out that the market seems equally concerned with the impact of the war on growth, as inflation and longer maturity rates have remained near the levels that existed at the beginning of the war.  Conversely, shorter term rates remain elevated, and market pricing of future policy changes on the part of the Fed are at or near zero, resulting in a flatter rate curve. This leaves us with slightly lower return prospects in the mortgage market going forward, but returns are still quite attractive in a historical context. We feel comfortable with our slightly revised dividend rate and view current market conditions as still quite conducive to the performance of levered Agency RMBS investing.”