27th consecutive growth quarter; rooftop surge offsets auction slowdown

PAT ₹1,400.9 Cr, YoY +11.0%

EBITDA ₹4,249 Cr reported; growth rate unverified

Q1 delivered growth; prior quarters not verified from call

Generation +2%, rooftop +67%, implies manufacturing strong; blended +37% plausible

Odisha MUs +10.4%; collection delays are temporary (gov't, heat wave); Q2 recovery expected

200 MW commissioned, 500 MW ready, rest dependent on transmission (delayed but now commissioning); realistic

Central agency (SECI/NHPC/NTPC) PPAs not securing state tie-ups; demand shifted to state-direct & FDRE/RTC bids. Management now avoids central intermediaries. Impact: FY27 auction volume softer vs FY26 peak.

₹30k Cr cumulative revenue now expected by 2029 (vs 2030 prior). FY25 ₹2,300 Cr → FY26 ₹4,800 Cr; this year trajectory implies ₹8k+ Cr. 60-70% FY27 growth guided.

Third-party EPC work stopped; ₹100 Cr PAT profit foregone. Workforce repurposed to in-house 5.5 GW renewable pipeline execution.

SPPA concluded (prior: pending). Operational under Section 11; state approvals imminent (Aug-Sep). Tariff is cost-reflective (no margin upside), but removes suspension risk. Procurement 100% confirmed.

Module production crossed 1,000 MW in Q1 (first time). Cell catching up post-line change. Record PAT in manufacturing this year. 25-26% margins stable despite industry capacity build.

Odisha & Delhi Q1 softness now attributed to billing lag (summer consumption billed next month). Management clarity that 12-month rollover, not Q1, is the KPI. No structural deterioration.

Odisha: 3 issues. (1) Government payment delays on Panchayati Raj (drinking water, street light). (2) Heat wave: govt ordered no disconnections until June 15, so collections deferred. (3) Summer billing lag (1-month cycle). All recoverable in Q2. Tata Projects: 10% of legacy loss projects remain in final stages. One more quarter of drag, then turnaround expected. Strong pipeline of marquee projects ahead.

~5% curtailment industry-wide; we see same trend. But transmission lines & evacuation in fast progression; we expect settlement in next few quarters. On RE: good progress on land & connectivity. Q1 commissioned 226 MW; already have 500 MW line of sight (final phase, 1-2 weeks). Q2 will see huge ramp-up in commissioning.

Central agencies (SECI, NHPC, NTPC) issued large PPAs but states haven't tied them up yet. States now prefer direct bidding & customized FDRE/RTC bids for their needs, not vanilla. Also, new projects like pump storage require paired capacity. So auction landscape shifting, not demand declining. We're avoiding central agencies, bidding direct to states (except pump hydro).

Context: All TBCB projects under construction. Revenues/PAT are lease accounting, not operational EBITDA sharing. Actual EBITDA comes from MO transmission (regulated return basis) and share of profit from resurgent platform. Each of the 3 buckets different. Commissioning starts Q2; then real operational EBITDA flows.

Mix. 1,000 MW has 3 units of 334 MW each. First tied via bid on annuity base. Other 2 in discussions with Tata Steel & steel/cement C&I customers. Direct to DISCOMs or central agencies partly, bilateral with large C&I partly.

Mix impact. Different places use different modules (450, 580, 630 sqmm). ULA scheme orders use lower-capacity modules. Other places higher capacity. Pricing depends on module spec & scheme. Average is wrong metric. Billing realization premium vs order entry normal.

Coal prices up 5-7%; expect up to 5% more next 9 months. Indonesia export regime: domestic supply-first rule now strict, but KPC already complied. No major impact expected. We not seeing any headwinds.

40-45% renewables, rest other businesses. Q1: ₹5,300 Cr. Q2: likely >₹6,000 Cr, possibly ₹6,500 Cr if all on track. Half of Q2 to renewables (targeting 800-900 MW commission). PSP accelerating. Also 2,000+ km transmission in pipeline.

Rooftop is net new market. Last 2 yrs: ₹2,300 Cr → ₹4,800 Cr. This year trajectory crosses ₹30k Cr cumulative by 2029, not 2030. We'll grow market share 12-13% → 25%. 2 yrs back: 1,000 units/month → now 30,000 units/month. Cash-and-carry business. Nature of market will change in 10 years, but distribution, devices, tech for multi-supply still needed.

Last year: ₹100 Cr PAT from third-party EPC work. This year: wrapping up remaining contracts, so booking losses (punch points, final collections). No new order book. Workforce repurposed to in-house 5.5 GW pipeline execution. Slide 48 is rooftop + EPC combined; EPC separately is now negative.

Very small quantity of third-party cell sales. Happens when orders need imported cell (DCR, ALMM-II, open access). We sell our own manufactured cell to capture market benefit. May continue few more quarters for group captive/open access. After that, not much third-party sales.

Solar, wind, hybrid: central agency demand much less now. We avoiding that and bidding direct to states. Exception: pump hydro (new storage solution) with central agencies still makes sense. Otherwise direct to states or bilateral C&I.

Supplementary PPA: actual cost of coal, all parameters (heat rate) actual. Cost-reflective, cost-reimbursement, no margin from plant. Fixed cost on normative basis: covers opex, no return-on-equity.

Fixed cost keeps changing; difficult to quantify at this stage. But yes, fixed cost is covered on normative basis—you get opex paid, not equity return.

Yes. Summer: you bill end of month, collect next month. June bill collected July. So June collection light despite huge June billing. 12-month rollover, not quarterly, is the right lens. On track annually.

Closed in 2016. Tariff & depreciation issues finalized; provisions made. Not an operating plant.

No separate split disclosed; will follow up offline. Increase in PAT due to higher coal profit share.

Modules up (crossed 1,000 MW Q1 first time). Cell down due to line change. Cost efficiency & product efficiency rising; command premium. Yield & efficiency peaking in Q2. Margins consistent this quarter; one of highest in industry. Plant now stabilized.

50% for renewables (2.5-3 GW adds), balance transmission & distribution. Q1: ₹5,300 Cr; Q2: >₹6,000 Cr (possibly ₹6,500 Cr). Investment-heavy, not revenue-heavy guidance.

30,000 units/month current run-rate. ₹30k Cr cumulative by 2029 (vs 2030 prior). Relies on market scale & channel capacity.

No quantified volume guidance. Landscape shift acknowledged; execution risk on state demand timing & pricing.

Plant stabilized post-line change. One of industry-highest margins. Premium pricing from efficiency offset volume plateau. No new capex expansion signaled.

Current generation PAT +2% CAGR lags revenue growth; new capacity (500 MW ready) should lift. Transmission (high margin) stable.

Tariff locked to cost. Coal price upside captured. Fixed cost recovery normative (no margin). Earnings upside limited to coal trading.

Q1: ₹5,300 Cr executed. Q2: >₹6,000-6,500 Cr. Renewable capex tied to 2.5-3 GW adds. FGD & transmission projects in pipeline.

1,800 MW Shirwata PSP construction start H2 FY27. Dorjilung financial closure expected in 2 months. Long-duration projects; paced capex.

MO transmission ₹10,000 Cr investment over 5 years. Regulated basis; returns stable.

~5% industry-wide curtailment due to transmission delays. 500 MW of Tata Power renewables held pending connectivity (now commissioning). If evacuation lines remain congested, revenue/EBITDA for renewables capped.

Central agency PPAs issued FY25 but states not finalizing tie-ups. States now prefer direct bidding & customized FDRE/RTC bids. Auction landscape shift delays new capacity inflow; pricing power uncertain.

Mundra SPPA tariff covers actual coal cost + normative fixed cost, zero ROE. Plant profitable only via coal margin pass-through (5-7% upside next 9m). Fixed cost recovery prevents losses but caps earnings upside. Tariff locked to costs (no inflation benefit).

Tata Projects discontinued third-party EPC work (was ₹100 Cr PAT profit last year). Now wrapping up legacy contracts; booking losses (punch points, collections). 10% of legacy projects remain; expected 1-2 more quarters of drag before turnaround.

Odisha & Delhi DISCOMs: government payment delays (Panchayati Raj) + heat wave no-disconnect rule (up to June 15) + summer billing lag (1-month cycle) collectively deferred collections Q1. MUs sold strong (+10.4% Odisha), but reported collections/PAT softer. Timing issue, not structural.

Rooftop solar accelerating phenomenally (100% YoY growth, 30k units/month, targeting ₹30k Cr revenue by 2029). Over 10-year horizon, distributed generation could cannibalize distribution utility sales & IPP merchant capacity purchases. Market migration away from centralized supply model.