35% growth masks margin squeeze; diversification delayed
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Hold
confidence 6/10
Grade B
Granite on track vs 10-12% prior guide (beat at ~30%+). Quartz off pace: 150k tons → 120k tons FY27 miss. New ventures: timelines pushed from 3-4 yr to FY29+.
Cautiously Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Optimistic
multi-year
Granite segment delivers robust 35% growth with strong demand, but diesel volatility (13% of cost, INR 85→130/L) compressed margins 190 bps despite electrification efforts. Quartz and new ventures—prior growth pillars—are materially delayed (Sri Lanka 18 months late, Indonesia/rare earths FY29). FY27 guidance (₹840 Cr) appears achievable but slower than prior 2.5x trajectory.
₹191.8 Cr
Revenue · +null% YoY₹31 Cr
Reported PAT · +null% YoYCompressing
Margins · vs guidance: MixedDid the claims hold up?
35% revenue growth YoY, 27% PAT growth
OVERSTATEDYoY marked n/a in results; Q1 only INR 5 Cr from quartz launch, rest from granite segment
EBITDA margin 26-27% maintained FY27
MixedQ1 delivered OPM 25.5%, NPM 15.7%; margin down 190 bps YoY due to diesel spike INR 85→130/L
Quartz 100-120 Cr FY27 revenue target
METOnly 5 Cr in Q1; ramp to 10-12k tons Q2, 15k+ by Q4. Capex ₹125 Cr Phase 2 deferred. Achievable but aggressive from 5 Cr base
Sri Lanka 12-15 months to operations post-license (expected Q3 FY27)
MISSLicense still pending despite policy finalized; ground-breaking October, ops expected FY29 (18-month delay from prior timeline)
Indonesia JV to form Q2 FY27, heavy rare earths operational timeline 12-15 months from JV
OVERSTATEDMOU signed Q1; JV structure still evolving. FY29 revenue expected per latest call. No committed capex yet.
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Quartz FY27 production target
DowngradePrior: 150k tons. Now: 120k tons. Reason: technical glitches resolved this quarter. Revenue impact: FY27 quartz now ₹100-120 Cr (vs prior implicit higher base).
New ventures commercialization timeline
DowngradePrior: Quartz ₹400 Cr, SMS ₹350-400 Cr, Kerala ₹200 Cr in 3-4 years (FY28-FY29). Now: Quartz ₹180-200 Cr FY28 (slower), SMS & rare earths FY29+ (18-month delay on SMS due to policy lag, KMML stalled).
Sri Lanka HMS operational start
DowngradeExpected 12-15 months from license (Q3 FY27). License still pending; ground-breaking October → operations FY29 vs prior FY27-FY28 expectation.
FY27 revenue guidance
MaintainedINR 840 Cr reaffirmed (vs 645 Cr prior year). Quartz contribution only ₹100-120 Cr (not the ₹400 Cr eventual target), rest from granite ₹720 Cr.
The Q&A
Q&A was moderately challenging. Analysts pressed hard on Sri Lanka delays, capex funding, quartz ramp vs prior guidance, and new venture timelines. Management held firm on FY27 numbers but deferred specifics on Indonesia capex/timeline to next call. Tone: cautious but defensive on execution risks.
Quartz production ramp — Arvind, Equiventure Capital
Answered5k tons Q1. Q2 target 10-12k, Q4 exceed 15k. Phase 2 capex ₹125 Cr split FY27-FY28, commission 10-12 months.
Quartz EBITDA breakeven — Archit Agarwal, Steptrade Capital
AnsweredQ3 breakeven at 10k tons/month; profit by year-end FY27. Next year optimum profitability.
Sri Lanka project timeline — Archit Agarwal, Steptrade Capital
Partial6-month delay due to policy. Ground-breaking October, 12-15 months build-out, ops expected next quarter (FY29 implied).
Indonesia MoU capex and returns — Yash Purbhe, Inved Research
PartialCapex higher than Kerala (overseas project, mining vs existing tailings). Specific number in 45-60 days (project report stage). Heavy rare earths 4-5x more margin than light. Payback typical for rare earth projects (not quantified).
FY27 quartz production vs prior guidance — Archit Agarwal, Steptrade Capital
AnsweredNo, technical glitches resolved. Now 120k tons FY27. All guidance numbers based on 120k, not 150k.
FY27 revenue guidance confidence — Alok Deora, Motilal Oswal
AnsweredConservative approach (promise less, over-deliver). Q3 rains will reduce granite production. These are conservative estimates; confident we'll beat if things go as planned.
Granite pricing power and pass-through — Alok Deora, Motilal Oswal
AnsweredAlready taken 3-5% price increase in granite. Volume growth primary lever. If fuel remains high, can take more. FOB freight always to customer.
FY28 blended margin trajectory — Alok Deora, Motilal Oswal
AnsweredPhase 1 quartz EBITDA 30%+. Blended EBITDA FY28 ~29-30% (vs FY27 lower due to quartz ramp absorption).
Sri Lanka policy and license status — Manish Gupta, Equinox Investment
PartialPolicy finalized, ratified this quarter. Formal communication received to reconfirm capacities/timelines/investment. Final project report submission Q1 FY27, license expected this quarter, development next quarter onwards.
Kerala KMML JV status — Manish Gupta, Equinox Investment
AnsweredNo activity this quarter. New government settling in, no MD appointed yet. Bureaucratic delays. Hoping once MD/team in place by Q1 FY27, activity resumes Q2 FY27 onwards.
Capex funding and leverage — Manish Gupta, Equinox Investment
AnsweredKerala is pilot (insignificant cost unless commercial plant). Phase 2 fresh equity raised (not capex). Granite capex met from cash flows. Sri Lanka ₹120-150 Cr from internal accruals. Gearing 0.2x, leverage available.
Indonesia JV structure and capital contribution — Prateek Singh, IIFL Capital
AnsweredTwo JVs planned. First: mine-to-oxide (Midwest Limited), second: oxide-to-magnet (Midwest Energy). NFPTC tech partner only. Capital between PERMINAS & Midwest Limited on first JV.
Granite volume growth by product — Prateek Singh, IIFL Capital
PartialGranite overall 32-33% revenue growth. Black Galaxy volume ~10% (both Absolute Black and Black Galaxy 10% volume).
Export freight cost pass-through (West Asia war) — Prateek Singh, IIFL Capital
AnsweredFOB basis freight always customer responsibility. Some CIF deals exist, freight passed through. Costing doesn't include freight, so impact minimal.
Q1 QoQ decline factors — Deepesh J., Manya Finance
AnsweredYes, seasonal. Q4 peak (30-40% annual revenue) due to Chinese New Year buying. Q1 typically lower. Best to compare YoY Q1 vs Q1 (up 35%).
FY28 SMS/rare earths revenue visibility — Balamurali, Oman Investment
AnsweredSri Lanka in licensing phase. License → build → operations. Estimating FY29 revenue start, not FY28. Conservative, very initial stages.
Sierra Leone subsidiary activity — Gursharan, GMA Advisors
AnsweredFormed company for local work and due diligence. No update Q1. Looked at few concessions with local issues. Minimal/no spend. Logistics only. Update next quarter if progress.
Guidance
FY27 total ₹840 Cr (vs ₹645 Cr FY26, 30% growth)
HighGranite ₹720 Cr (10-12% growth reaffirmed, beaten YoY at 30%+). Quartz ₹100-120 Cr. Q3 rains may reduce granite, but overall achievable.
FY28 target ~₹950 Cr (quartz Phase 1 ₹180-200 Cr, Phase 2 ₹40-50 Cr, granite ₹750 Cr at 10-12% growth)
MediumQuartz ramp assumption 15k tons/month runrate by Q4 FY27; requires execution. Phase 2 commissioning timeline uncertain (10-12 month window). Granite conservative at 10-12% (beat this YoY).
FY29: Sri Lanka SMS and Indonesia rare earths start contributing (no $ amount yet)
LowToo early stage. Sri Lanka license pending (expected Q3 FY27), ops FY29. Indonesia JV structure evolving, capex/timeline TBD by end FY27.
FY27 EBITDA 26-27% blended (granite 27-28%, quartz drag ~2% due to ramp overhead)
MediumQ1 OPM 25.5% (down 190 bps YoY). Management expects Q2 improvement as fuel prices moderate, electrification opex gains materialize, and realization holds.
FY28 blended EBITDA ~29-30% (quartz Phase 1 at 30%+, granite ~27-28%, Phase 2 ramp dilution <0.5%)
MediumAssumes quartz reaches stable margin profile at 15k tons/month. Phase 1 capex depreciation will be full-year impact. Granite needs to hold margin vs diesel risk.
Quartz Phase 2: ₹125 Cr split FY27-FY28 (₹60-70 Cr Q2-Q3 FY27, balance Q4-Q1 FY28)
HighSuppliers finalized, orders placed. Cash spend profile clear. Commission within 10-12 months (by Q4 FY27 likely).
Sri Lanka: ₹120-150 Cr plant capex (if license granted Q3 FY27, build 12-15 months, ops FY29)
MediumLicense still pending. Once obtained, capex from internal accruals. Timeline assumes no further delays.
Indonesia rare earths: Capex amount TBD, expected within 45-60 days of call (end Sept 2026)
LowProject report stage. Ore-to-oxide phase less capex-intensive than oxide-to-magnet. Overseas project capex typically higher. JV equity split and capex proportion unknown.
Risks the call surfaced
Diesel price volatility
HighDiesel 13% of cost. Q1 saw INR 85→130/L spike (52% increase). EBITDA down 190 bps despite 35% revenue growth. Electrification hedges ~50-60% of impact, leaves ₹20-30 Cr annual exposure if sustained.
Quartz production execution
HighQuartz Phase 1 already missed 150k tons FY27 target (now 120k). Q1 only ₹5 Cr; FY27 target ₹100-120 Cr requires 20-24x ramp in 3Q. Technical glitches 'resolved' but unproven at scale. Phase 2 commissioning (10-12 months) adds execution risk.
Sri Lanka HMS licensing delay
HighLicense pending 12+ months. Policy finalized Q1 FY27, but license not yet issued. Ground-breaking expected October, 12-15 months to ops = FY29 start (vs prior expectation FY27-FY28). ₹120-150 Cr capex deferred; revenue contribution pushed 18-24 months later.
Kerala KMML JV stalled
MediumNo activity Q1 FY27. New government settling in, MD not appointed. KMML internal bureaucratic delays. Prior target ₹200 Cr revenue; timeline now vague (pending MD/team appointment). Opportunity cost vs Indonesia/Sri Lanka prioritization.
Indonesia JV structure/capex uncertainty
MediumMoU signed but JV structure evolving (two JVs: mine-to-oxide Midwest, oxide-to-magnet Energy). Capex amount, equity % split with PERMINAS, timeline all TBD (45-60 day project report). FY29 revenue expected but too early for commitment. Rare earths margin profile attractive but execution unproven.
China export concentration & seasonality
MediumBulk of granite exports to China (61-65% engineered stone + solar segments). Chinese New Year drives Q4 peak (30-40% annual revenue). Geopolitical risk (US-China relations, tariffs) and seasonality create Q1 softness. FOB freight insulates from shipping but not commodity/trade policy.
Management
Score 7/10. Articulate and direct. Ram Kollareddy addresses all questions. Acknowledges challenges (quartz miss, Sri Lanka delay, diesel headwinds) transparently. However, some deferred specifics (Indonesia capex TBD). Tone is confident but realistic. Granite on track: 30%+ growth beats 10-12% prior guide. Quartz 150k→120k tons miss; Phase 1 ramp credible from here. New ventures delayed 12-18 months (Sri Lanka license pending, Kerala KMML stalled, Indonesia too early). Track record: good on core, weak on new venture timelines.
1 · Q2 FY27
Quartz run rate 10-12k tons, Phase 2 capex outlay ₹60-70 Cr
2 · Q3 FY27
Quartz breakeven at 10k tons/month; electrification opex benefit
3 · Q3/Q4 FY27
Sri Lanka license expected, ground-breaking October
FY27 guidance (₹840 Cr) appears achievable but slower than prior 2.5x trajectory.
Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.