41% PAT growth, credit beat guidance, but agri risks linger
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Buy
confidence 7/10
Grade A
Beat credit guidance (23% vs 18%); delivered PAT +41% guidance; sustained asset quality improvements; debt waiver recovery on track till 31-Mar-27.
Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Optimistic
multi-year
Q2 delivers strong momentum: PAT +41% YoY, credit growth 23% beats 18% guidance, asset quality improving (GNPA 1.25%, -47 bps), and a robust ₹23K Cr pipeline supports mid-term growth. Chief risk: agri-gold exposure (₹18.6K Cr, up 34% YoY) vulnerable to El Niño impact; management monitoring but no hedges detailed.
₹8606.4 Cr
Revenue · +20.7% YoY₹2310 Cr
Reported PAT · +41.4% YoYExpanding
Margins · vs guidance: CorroboratedDid the claims hold up?
Business grown 25%
OVERSTATEDRevenue grew 20.7% YoY per delivered result
Net profit grown 41% YoY
METDelivered PAT growth 41.4% YoY; ₹2310 Cr vs ₹1634 Cr prior year
Domestic credit growth 23% vs 18% guidance
METDelivered credit growth beat guidance; 23% vs 18% target
Operating profit grown 31% YoY
METImplied by 41% PAT growth and effective tax neutrality; not independently verified
Deposits grown 22% YoY
METBeats prior 13% guidance; sustained healthy growth momentum
GNPA reduced 47 bps to 1.25%
METAsset quality improving; stress metrics show improvement across segments
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Credit growth delivery accelerated
UpgradeQ1 FY27 guided 18% domestic credit; Q2 delivered 23%, beating by 5 pp. Domestic verticals grew 20%+ (Retail +20%, MSME +20%, Agri +34%).
Asset quality trajectory strengthened
UpgradeQ1 called for stress monitoring; Q2 shows GNPA down 47 bps to 1.25%, agri stress down 35 bps to 3.51%, SMA 1&2 improved across segments.
NIM guidance reaffirmed, delivered +12 bps
NeutralNo NIM guidance change; reported 3.97%, up 12 bps; aided by write-off recovery (₹125 Cr, 2–3 bps contribution) and discipline on deposit costs.
Debt waiver recovery tracking well but contingent
NeutralQ1 expected recovery; Q2 shows ₹1.2K Cr collected of ₹2.75K Cr govt receivable by 30-Sep. Deadline extended to 31-Mar-27; ₹1.5K Cr annual target dependent on govt disbursal pace.
The Q&A
Analysts probed cost inflation (deposits QoQ, deposit yields), agri concentration and El Niño risk, debt waiver timing uncertainty, and ECLGS contingency. Management acknowledged deposit cost pressure but cited disciplined re-pricing and alternate funding (infra bonds, FCNR). On agri risk, acknowledged drought but stressed secured gold loans and improving stress trends. Tone was candid on constraints (cost, agri, govt process delays) but confident in execution.
Credit growth sustainability — Ashok Ajmera, Ajcon
AnsweredDomestic guidance is 18% (beat in H1 with 23%). All verticals grew 20%+. IBU window temporary; refocus on domestic domestic. Pipeline ₹23K Cr, estimate ₹10K Cr disbursal by Mar-27. No challenge to maintain guidance.
Agri credit concentration — Ashok Ajmera, Ajcon
PartialAgri-gold ₹18.6K Cr (up from ₹6.5K Cr Sep-25, ₹12K Cr growth YoY). Secured by gold, backed by RBIGG. Stress improved to 3.51%. No anticipated stress from El Niño. Monitoring closely.
Deposit cost inflation QoQ — Parth, 360 ONE Capital
PartialYoY down 4 bps, consciously raised bulk deposit rates; pursuing refinance (FCNR ₹1.51B, infra bonds). FCNR fixed 6.51%, 1-yr CD 7.75%. Focus on core stable retail deposits; high-cost bulk not preferred long-term.
Write-off recovery contribution to NIM — Sameer Bhise, Dymon Asia
AnsweredWrite-off recovery ₹125 Cr, 2–3 bps NIM contribution. Debt waiver ₹260–500 Cr; total recovery contributed ₹30 Cr NIM benefit, 2–3 bps. Focus now on branch-level profitability across segments.
Debt waiver timeline and recovery risk — Jai Prakash Mundhra, ICICI Securities
PartialEligible ₹3.5K Cr; govt receivable ₹2.75K Cr. 50% recovery (~₹1.2K Cr) done. Deadline 31-Mar-27 per SLBC. Rest subject to state govt process. Targeting ₹1.2K–1.5K Cr annually. Expects extra recovery from write-off and debt waiver.
ECLGS and agri-loan classification — Jai Prakash Mundhra, ICICI Securities
AnsweredECLGS done ₹4.5K Cr (agri ₹530 Cr, MSME ₹3.3K Cr, corporate ₹577 Cr). Agri-business loans under processing; classified as agriculture per PSL. Agri-gold not under ECLGS.
Margin pressure and pricing strategy — Jai Prakash Mundhra, ICICI Securities
DodgedGlobal yield lower due to IBU (leverage ₹560M only). Domestic yield 9.02% reflects conscious branch-level pricing. No exact IBU yield shared; will follow up offline. Focus is profitable growth via branch-level profitability framework.
Drought and restructuring risk — Jai Prakash Mundhra, ICICI Securities
PartialAgri loan ₹44K Cr (~₹20K Cr farm credit, ₹24K Cr gold). SLBC restructuring: 33% crop loss triggers 1-yr moratorium, 50% loss = 5-yr repayment (1-yr moratorium). Assumes 10–15% restructure from past. No significant stress visible; closely monitoring.
Corporate growth and Viksit Bharat exposure — Sushil Choksey, Indus Equity Advisors
AnsweredPipeline ₹23K Cr: infra 18%, power 12%, road 10%, renewable 10%, metals 10%. Largest funded infra ₹14K–15K Cr renewable in last 3 quarters. Viksit Bharat aligned with govt emphasis. Capitalize on NaBFID partnership for large projects.
HR capability for growth and IBU expansion — Sushil Choksey, Indus Equity Advisors
AnsweredEmployee count 13K, 2-year target 17.5K. Massive external recruitment. Branch expansion 200 annually (77 done H1). Specialized skill hires for treasury, IBU, IT. Assurance functions strong given regulatory compliance.
Guidance
18% domestic credit growth FY27 (maintained)
HighBeat in H1 with 23%; all segments growing 20%+. Pipeline ₹23K Cr underpins confidence.
NIM healthy, improved 12 bps to 3.97% in Q2 (maintained)
HighWrite-off recovery and branch-level pricing discipline supporting. Cost of deposits down YoY (-4 bps) despite QoQ pressure.
Profitability focus on branch-level metrics (maintained)
MediumNew framework implemented; all metrics (revenue, profitability) tracked at branch level; discipline on mix and pricing.
200 branches annually (77 done in H1 FY27)
HighRetail & MSME expansion in growth centers. Employee base to reach 17.5K in 2 years. Cyber budget ₹985 Cr (FY25–26).
INR 23K Cr proposal pipeline; INR 10K Cr target disbursal by Mar-27
MediumSectors: infra 18%, power 12%, road 10%, renewable 10%, metals 10%. Market-linked, govt-focused projects.
Risks the call surfaced
Agricultural Sector Stress
MediumAgri-gold ₹18.6K Cr (up 34% YoY); agri loans ₹44K Cr. Drought in Maharashtra/Karnataka; El Niño risk. SLBC restructuring scheme cap at 50% crop loss, 5-yr repayment.
Debt-Waiver Recovery Contingency
Medium₹2.75K Cr govt-receivable portion of ₹3.5K Cr eligible accounts. Only ₹1.2K Cr collected by 30-Sep. Deadline 31-Mar-27 per SLBC, but subject to state govt disbursal pace and cleansing process.
Deposit Cost Inflation
LowCost of deposits rose sharply QoQ despite YoY reduction of 4 bps. FCNR deposits fixed at 6.51%, 1-yr CD near 7.75%. Bulk deposits expensive; focus on retail but may limit growth in rate-rising environment.
Large-Credit/IBU Leverage
LowLarge credit ₹36K Cr YoY growth, ₹18K Cr from GIFT City IBU (₹560M leverage). IBU window temporary; reversion to domestic growth could slow headline growth momentum.
Branch Expansion & Talent Retention
LowTarget 200 branches annually (77 done in H1); employee base 13K, targeting 17.5K in 2 years. Rapid expansion may strain cost efficiency if productivity per branch lags or attrition rises.
Management
Score 7/10. Clear on numbers, transparent on constraints (agri, cost, debt waiver timelines). Candid on govt-process delays and credit-mix headwinds (IBU yield drag). Some evasion on IBU yield specifics (promised offline follow-up). Beat credit guidance (23% vs 18%); delivered PAT +41% YoY; improved asset quality (GNPA -47 bps, agri -35 bps); sustained NIM. Debt-waiver recovery on track but dependent on govt pace.
1 · Feb 2027
Debt waiver application deadline for farmers; recovery impact crystallizes
2 · Mar 2027
Debt waiver distribution completion deadline per SLBC; ₹1.5K Cr+ recovery potential
3 · Mar 2027
INR 10K Cr proposal disbursal target from ₹23K Cr pipeline; capex cycle acceleration
Chief risk: agri-gold exposure (₹18.6K Cr, up 34% YoY) vulnerable to El Niño impact; management monitoring but no hedges detailed.
Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.