55% growth fueled by BSNL, but losses widen; profitability timeline under pressure
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Hold
confidence 6/10
Grade B
Q1 FY27 guidance (12–18 mo to positive EBITDA, then PAT) not explicitly reiterated; timeline appears extended. BSNL order is a major win but creates concentration risk.
Cautiously Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Optimistic
multi-year
Revenue growth is genuine (55% YoY on ₹406 Cr), but severe margin compression (-50% NPM) and a BSNL order-dependent recovery create execution risk. BSNL contributes 65% of order book and requires government payment flow; inventory ₹2.3 Cr and net debt ₹384 Cr will deteriorate if execution slips. Management's 'coming quarters' EBITDA target is speculative given current burn.
₹405.7 Cr
Revenue · +54.9% YoY₹-206.9 Cr
Reported PAT · +32.6% YoYCompressing
Margins · vs guidance: MixedDid the claims hold up?
Q2 revenue reached ₹406 Cr, a 55% YoY improvement
METDelivered ₹405.7 Cr vs ₹262 Cr in Q2 FY26 = 54.9% growth
PAT loss of ₹207 Cr improved from ₹307 Cr in Q2 FY26
METPAT loss ₹206.9 Cr vs ₹307 Cr = 32.6% improvement, confirmed
EBITDA negative ₹108 Cr improved from ₹293 Cr negative in Q2 FY26
METStatement aligns with loss reduction trajectory, not independently verified
BSNL order for 18,685 4G sites received LOI and started shipments
METOrder book shows ₹2,315 Cr (up from ₹1,529 Cr), ₹1,500 Cr attributed to BSNL per MD
Expected significant collections and inventory reduction from BSNL in coming quarters
OVERSTATEDInventory ₹2,314 Cr remains high; receivables reduction dependent on BSNL payment flow
Path to positive EBITDA in coming quarters
OVERSTATEDEBITDA still ₹108 Cr negative with ₹207 Cr loss; timeline vague and aggressive given burn rate
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
BSNL order announced and LOI signed
New₹1,500 Cr BSNL 4G expansion order (18,685 sites) received; prior Q1 call mentioned BSNL 4G expected in Q1 FY27, but order book now reflects it.
Order book momentum accelerated
UpgradeOrder book ₹2,315 Cr vs ₹1,529 Cr in Q1 (51% QoQ growth); prior call had no quantified order book target, only 'strong visibility.'
International traction emerging (POCs, new customers)
NewNew pan-African Tier 1 telco customer for optical, 5G RAN POCs in Americas/Asia Pacific; prior call mentioned intent but no named customer wins.
Profitability timeline unquantified, no regression in stated path
NeutralQ1 guidance: 'Path to positive EBITDA in 12–18 months, then PAT.' Q2 call says 'coming quarters' for EBITDA—timeline not explicitly extended but Q2 EBITDA loss -₹108 Cr suggests slippage risk.
The Q&A
Analysts pressed hard on BSNL receivables timing (Tushar Khurana), contract manufacturing costs (Keyurkumar Vadaliya), and international opportunity size (Kumar Sivarajan). Management held up reasonably, confirming BSNL payment by quarter-end and explaining non-recurring costs, but deflected on NEC revenue scale and international market penetration rates. Q&A tone was honest on execution challenges but defensive on aggressive claims.
BSNL receivables and collection timing — Tushar Khurana, Peace Wealth
PartialMilestone deliveries on track; significant collections expected this quarter as we hit payment milestones. ₹1,500 Cr order not fully in order book yet—will come as POs arrive—but most expected by quarter-end.
International strategy and market expansion — Tushar Khurana, Peace Wealth
AnsweredWe target emerging markets in next expansion phase, Tier 1/2 operators with custom requirements. POCs underway in Americas and Asia Pacific. Smaller, more responsive operators are our initial market; larger incumbents move slower.
Technology partnerships and joint solutions — Tushar Khurana, Peace Wealth
PartialWe are radio development partner for many future radios. NEC partnership includes licensing massive MIMO 5G tech and supplying to their customers. Joint solutions approach—we provide radio; they provide core/CU/DU.
Contract manufacturing losses and recurrence risk — Keyurkumar Vadaliya, Niveshah
AnsweredOne-time provisioning in September 2025 for the first 100K BSNL units; not in Q2 current quarter. Gross margins expected to improve as volume ramps.
AI data centers and railway deployment — Keyurkumar Vadaliya, Niveshah
PartialData center interconnect is part of our newer optimized product portfolio. Railway trial in 700 MHz for Kavach (internal comms). Data center market important focus, with several existing customer wins already deployed.
International POCs and vendor qualification — Tushar Khurana, Peace Wealth
PartialMultiple POCs underway with Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators in Americas and Asia Pacific. POCs are for vendor qualification for next expansion phase. We are testing across multiple bands with custom radio requirements.
D2M RFP and system integrator role — Tushar Khurana, Peace Wealth
AnsweredNot as system integrator; we are radio/broadcast head vendor. If the RFP happens, system integrators will participate. We are well-positioned as a vendor; we will not be the system integrator.
NEC collaboration, MIMO radio technology, and revenue scaling — Tushar Khurana, Peace Wealth
PartialWe licensed massive MIMO 5G radio tech from NEC and are supplying to their customers. Also developing new generation radios based on tech with changes we made. Supplying both to existing NEC customers and new ones; cannot comment on revenue numbers.
Guidance
BSNL-driven revenue ramp expected next few quarters
MediumOrder book ₹2,315 Cr provides multi-quarter visibility; BSNL 4G roll-out timing is government-dependent. Non-BSNL orders ~₹800 Cr also visible.
Path to quarterly positive EBITDA in coming quarters
LowCurrent EBITDA -₹108 Cr in Q2. Management cites inventory reduction and cost control post-BSNL ramp, but timeline is vague and execution risk is material.
PAT profitability expected in upcoming years
LowNo quantified path provided. PAT currently -₹207 Cr (NPM -50%). Requires both margin expansion and EBITDA positivity; highly speculative at current burn rate.
Continued capex investments in 5G Advanced, 6G, and AI RAN
HighManagement confirmed strategic focus on next-gen wireless tech and data center interconnect product development. Capex is ongoing but no quantified target disclosed.
Risks the call surfaced
BSNL concentration and government payment risk
HighBSNL represents ₹1,500 Cr of ₹2,315 Cr order book (65% concentration). Payment dependent on government budget releases and BSNL cash flow. Delay cascades to inventory, debt, and receivables.
Inventory overhang and working capital burn
HighInventory ₹2,314 Cr (flat QoQ, 5.7x Q2 revenue annualized) built for BSNL order. If BSNL delays execution or payment, inventory becomes a cash drain and balance sheet deteriorates.
Profitability timeline slippage and cash burn
MediumQ1 FY27 guidance promised 'path to positive EBITDA in 12–18 months.' Q2 shows -₹108 Cr EBITDA loss and -₹207 Cr PAT loss. Management now says 'coming quarters' for EBITDA (vague) and 'upcoming years' for PAT, suggesting timeline extension.
International POC conversion and market traction risk
MediumInternational POCs are in early qualification phase (vendor selection for next expansion). No confirmed orders or timelines. Emerging market telcos (Tier 1/2 in Americas, Asia Pacific) are high-risk credit and may delay capex or pivot vendors.
Technology execution and competitive moat risk
Low5G Advanced, 6G, and AI RAN are long-term bets (6G commercial 2029). Current product portfolio is undifferentiated; margins compressed despite 55% revenue growth. Competitive pressure from Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung.
Management
Score 6/10. Clear on technology and product strategy; weak on financial guidance clarity. MD Arnob Roy communicates strategy confidently but deflects on international revenue scale. CFO AVS Prasad provides detailed financial context (e.g., ₹145 Cr provisioning explanation) but timeline estimates are vague. Met Q2 revenue guidance (₹406 Cr aligned with ₹402 Cr Q1 flat expectation). PAT loss ₹207 Cr improved from ₹307 Cr, confirming EBITDA improvement narrative. However, profitability timeline appears delayed vs Q1 FY27 'path to positive EBITDA in 12–18 months' claim.
1 · Q3 FY27 (Oct–Dec 2026)
BSNL 4G order execution and initial payment milestones
2 · Q4 FY27 (Jan–Mar 2027)
Inventory rundown and receivables collection, path to positive quarterly EBITDA
3 · H2 FY27
International POC conversions (Americas, Asia Pacific telcos) to commercial orders
Management's 'coming quarters' EBITDA target is speculative given current burn.
Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.