Ash growth 76% offsets wind ramp-up losses; execution risk ahead

Standalone continuing ops revenue ₹619 Cr, +76% YoY; EBITDA 17%; PAT ₹73.6 Cr, +123%

Q1 wind execution ₹295 Cr at breakeven/near-zero margin; full profitability deferred to Q3-Q4

Specific numbers verified in call; execution guidance ₹1,700-1,800 Cr wind for FY27

Q1 standalone EBITDA 17%, PAT margin 11.9%; but consolidated margin 7% due to wind drag

Prior: ₹1,500 Cr execution expected. Current: ₹1,860 Cr order book confirmed, ₹1,700-1,800 Cr FY27 execution guidance added. New orders won beyond prior baseline.

Prior: General confidence in growth. Current: Specific milestones—65-70k Q1, ~90k Q4, working in 42 plants at 30-35% penetration. Guidance consistent with maintaining >28% CAGR.

Prior: Implicit in order book confidence. Current: Management states 5-6% net margin by year-end, 85% localization in 12 months, 18-20% EBITDA in FY29. Forward-looking, not yet delivered.

Prior: 15-18% EBITDA / 10-12% net implied. Current: Reaffirmed explicitly for ash & coal; management defensive on question of guidance consistency, suggests 'always maintained this target.'

65-70k tons/day Q1. Q2 slow. Q3-Q4 scale up. Target ~90k by Q4. Maintaining >28% CAGR.

Very small margin currently. Better margin in Q3-Q4 due to deferred phase/billing. Full-year wind target 5-6% margin.

Net margin (PAT). Full-year 5-6% net. Q1-Q2 combined margin tilts to Q3-Q4.

₹4 Cr one-time bank processing charges from Indian Overseas Bank loan takeover.

₹1,860 Cr total, ₹525 Cr executed, ₹1,300 Cr remaining in hand. Few orders in advanced stage, should close in 30-60 days. New orders will spill to next year.

Competition is beneficial—creates market awareness. Refex is only organized player. Others will complement, not compete. Large TAM for multiple players.

Technology is direct transfer, fully paid. Partner owns 23%, Refex 76-77%. Partner manages operations. Details in prior disclosure.

Leased facility, ₹3.5-4 Cr capex. 1 GW capacity = ~₹5,000-6,000 Cr peak revenue. Assembly plant, components from OEMs.

Pre-operating expenses high now, will reduce. Margins will improve in Q3-Q4 as business scales.

Positive only. Expanding into Northeast, complementary to road. Railway discount tariffs help. New avenues for ash utilization.

85% localization in 12 months. Similar to competitor 18-20% EBITDA margin in 2 years when localization + capacity increases.

Mobility demerging, wind very new (Q2 of operations). Standalone is apple-to-apple comparison to prior year when wind didn't exist.

Standalone ash grew 76% YoY. Capacity is available (no constraints noted). 90k target achievable by Q4 if volume execution continues.

Order book confirmed. Execution depends on project milestones and customer site readiness. New orders in pipeline expected to spill to FY28.

No explicit full-year consolidated guidance given. Implied from segment targets. Deferred billing in wind could create lumpy quarterly patterns.

Q1 delivered 17% EBITDA, 11.9% net. Management stated 'always maintained this target.' Guidance reaffirmed for Q2-Q4.

Relies on Q3-Q4 deferred billing materialization and pre-operating expense reduction. Not yet evidenced. Near-term risk if execution delays.

No explicit guidance. Wind losses are temporary drag. Full realization depends on margin inflection delivery.

Asset-light model. Capex focus on repairs/maintenance only. Capacity sufficient via OEM outsourcing.

Ambitious timeline. Requires vendor ramp-up and supply chain coordination. Critical for margin expansion to 18-20% EBITDA in FY29.

Q1 wind at breakeven/near-zero margin vs target 5-6% by year-end. Profitability realization deferred to Q3-Q4 based on deferred billing and pre-operating expense reduction. Timing and magnitude unverified.

Target 90k tons/day by Q4 from 65-70k Q1 (+28% increase). Requires fleet scaling, personnel hiring, and operational expansion. Geopolitical diesel supply constraints and logistics disruptions mentioned in Q1.

Management confident Refex is 'only organized business player,' but acknowledged other competitors could emerge. TAM is large (~30-35% penetration of 120-140 thermal plants), which may attract new entrants. Pricing power and margin sustainability at risk if competition intensifies.

85% component localization target within 12 months is aggressive. Depends on third-party OEM vendor ramp-up, supply chain coordination, and quality certification. Delay could push 18-20% EBITDA margin realization beyond FY29.

Demerger expected by end of Q3 FY27 (Sept 2026). NCLT approval received, but shareholder vote and final regulatory clearance still pending. Delays or unfavorable terms could impact timeline and value unlock. Currently losing ~₹3-5 Cr per quarter (embedded in discontinued operations), dragging consolidated profitability.