Exceptional trading windfall masks volume transition risk

Q1 FY26 was ₹237 Cr, Q1 FY27 ₹726 Cr = 206% verified

Q1 FY26 was 4.71 mmscmd; (7.17–4.71)/4.71 = 52.2%, not 64%

Q1 FY26 was 3.33 mmscmd; (3.76–3.33)/3.33 = 12.9% ≈ 13%

Q1 achieved 5.18 Rs/scm; below guidance. Management reaffirmed but Q1 miss evident

Management stated trajectory 0.4 mmscmd (Apr) → 8 mmscmd (May–Jun); QoQ recovery plausible but post-July fell to ~3 mmscmd

Reaffirmed ₹1,100–1,200 Cr FY27 profit guidance 'on conservative basis' despite Q1 beat. Signals management views Q1 margin (₹6/scm) as peak, expects normalization to 4–5% range.

Maintained 5.5–6.5 Rs/scm but Q1 underdelivered at 5.18 Rs/scm. No adjustment to guidance; attributed miss to Morbi product mix. Suggests either guidance is too optimistic or Morbi will remain margin dilutive.

Shifted from prior '26–'27 start to 2028 start due to geopolitical shocks (Russia-Ukraine, now Middle East Iran tensions). Signals demand confidence may be hedged vs prior rhetoric.

Fell to 3.3 mmscmd (from 5 mmscmd earlier) on high spot prices and power demand absence. Management expects recovery to 4.5–5 mmscmd by 2028–29 (not FY27).

Post-July pricing gap narrowed (GEL ₹78/scm vs propane ₹65/scm) as propane sourced from US, Venezuela. Near-term floor 1.8–2 mmscmd vs Q1 peak 8 mmscmd.

~3 mmscmd gas now vs 5.3–5.4 mmscmd propane; GEL pricing ₹78/scm vs propane ₹65/scm; expect to hold 3 mmscmd minimum this quarter

Yes, 12–13% growth expected; adding 75 new stations, upgrading 70 this year will support next couple of years

Segment-level margins provided in investor presentation; (deflected to presentation rather than stating number)

Shortlisted sites in Gujarat, studies ongoing, details coming shortly; long-term plan to set up own import and storage

High prices and lack of power volumes caused drop; long-term expect 4.5–5 mmscmd by 2028–29 when pricing normalizes

₹1,000 Cr guidance for CGD; no capex on gas trading; ₹127 Cr invested in Q1

Sourced at appropriate time with Brent-linked long-term contracts; no negative numbers expected; stick to ₹1,100 Cr guidance on conservative basis

Sell long-term contracts back-to-back (fixed margin); Henry Hub side also contracted back-to-back; improves profitability and expands business

12.34 mmscmd total: 14% APM, 6% NWG, 2% GAIL pool, 9% long-term contract, 69% short-term/inter-segment

4–5% overall percentage margin target; fertilizer and CGD roughly nominal (~20 Rs/scm fixed); other segments depend on market

No, 3.76 is GEL only; Sabarmati is JV, profit taken line-by-line basis

Currently 2.2 mmscmd; infrastructure build-out in progress (Ahmedabad rural, Thane, Kutch, Dahej); expect 3 mmscmd in 1.5–2 years as prices stabilize

Infrastructure development is main constraint; added 86 new industries Apr–Jun; pipeline network in advanced stages; as we connect units, volumes will increase

Mandatory push is on domestic and commercial only (LPG→PNG switch due to Middle East crisis); industrial is open competition

Not demand issue; signed Total, Uniper, Qatar; 2 more in pipeline; geopolitical shocks (Russia-Ukraine, Iran) shifted timeline from '26–'27 to 2028 start

Today 28% on term contracts (2 MT LNG equivalent); expect 4 MT by 2030

Gas-based plants operating at ~1% PLF (GSEG 6%, Pipavav 1%); only peak demand in summers provides traction; working on strategy, details by Q3; looking at data center deals

Q1 FY26: Trading ₹236 Cr, CGD ₹544 Cr, E&P ₹7 Cr, Renewables ₹14 Cr (Total ₹800 Cr). Q4: Trading ₹409 Cr, CGD ₹465 Cr, E&P ₹14 Cr, Renewables ₹5 Cr (Total ₹893 Cr)

Close to ₹70 Rs/scm for non-Morbi industrial

Fertilizer 1.6, Chemicals 0.24, Steel 0.20, Power 0.20, Other CGD companies 0.50, Other industrial 0.50 mmscmd

Smaller units lack propane infrastructure or space; 1.8–2 mmscmd is reasonable floor estimate based on historical lows

One-month basis contracts; yes, will hold due to lack of propane infrastructure

Early September; coordinating with BSE, NSE, SEBI for exemption from public issue route; likely takes slightly longer

₹7,200 Cr cash; ₹1,000 Cr capex for CGD; rest being evaluated for business strengthening and diversification in energy; concrete plan by Q3

No; propane is in early DRHP stage; detailed project report needed; capex happens in next 2 years (long-term plan)

Look at portfolio level; 5.18 Rs/scm with bigger volume now to divide; Morbi is lower-margin contributor but we manage at portfolio level; maintain 5.5–6.5 Rs/scm guidance

₹900 Cr expected; currently filing revised returns for FY24–25, FY25–26, FY26; will take at least 1 year to receive refunds

Changed; when separate companies, had to follow arm's length concept; now have flexibility to change pricing internally; sourcing and pricing can differ

Entire segment profit; if sourcing entire 12.22 mmscmd, segment is for entire thing; 8.9 mmscmd transferred internally to CGD at markup

Entire trading volume (12.22 mmscmd); not just external 3.32 mmscmd

Management cited Middle East crisis volatility; will provide full-year guidance after Q2 results

Conservative basis; acknowledges Q1 margin (₹6/scm) from Brent timing, not sustainable; 4–5% margin target

Reaffirmed despite Q1 miss; attributed to Morbi product mix dilution; management looking at portfolio-level margin

Focused on CNG expansion (75 new + 70 upgrades), PNG infrastructure; no capex on gas trading

Long-term diversification; capex deferred; concrete plan by Q3 FY27

Morbi cluster (largest customer) supplied 5.67 mmscmd avg Q1 (181% recovery from Q4 crisis base) but post-July fell to 3 mmscmd as propane supply improved. Management expects 1.8–2 mmscmd floor. If competition intensifies or propane pricing equalizes, floor could contract further, materially impacting industrial segment.

Q1 gas trading EBT ₹726 Cr was exceptional due to Brent-linked long-term contracts and favorable timing (aged Brent advantage). Management explicitly stated this is not sustainable and provided conservative FY27 guidance (₹1,100–1,200 Cr vs Q1 ₹726 Cr annualized ₹2,904 Cr), signaling 50%+ earnings cliff. Margin dependent on spot LNG pricing, Brent spreads, and sourcing timing—all volatile.

External gas trading sales (non-CGD) fell to 3.3 mmscmd from prior 5 mmscmd due to high spot LNG prices and absence of power plant demand. This is a 34% volume drop. Management expects recovery to 4.5–5 mmscmd by 2028–29, conditional on LNG price normalization and power demand recovery.

Q1 CGD EBITDA margin was 5.18 Rs/scm vs guidance of 5.5–6.5 Rs/scm, a material miss at the low end. Management attributed this to higher Morbi volumes (lower margin ~₹6/scm selling price) diluting portfolio average. However, reaffirmed guidance without adjustment, raising credibility risk. If Morbi remains elevated or other segments underdeliver, further misses likely.

Management pushed back long-term LNG sourcing start date from earlier guidance of 2026–27 to 2028 due to geopolitical shocks (Russia-Ukraine, Iran tensions). This 1–2 year delay suggests either (a) demand confidence is weaker than prior, (b) pricing expectations shifted, or (c) execution timelines are longer than anticipated. Risk: long-term sourcing becomes more expensive or capacity constraints emerge.

Gas-based power plants (GSEG 51 MW, Pipavav) operating at <7% PLF. Management acknowledged they only run during peak electricity demand in summers; rest of year essentially dormant. Strategy to revive (data center back-of-meter deals, grid stabilization contracts) is vague and in early stages. Risk: ongoing cash drain or write-down if no viable strategy emerges.