Explorer-turned-producer stumbles on ramp; margin miss vs. 75% guidance

59 kg sold generated ₹87 Cr revenue but Deccan books only ₹6.35 Cr associate profit (7.3% stake)

Geomysore PAT ₹25 Cr on ₹87 Cr revenue = 29% margin; MD admits 'significantly on the lower side'

Q1 company revenue ₹0.2 Cr; Jonnagiri still ramping, Kyrgyzstan at pilot stage; full production not until Q2

Merrill-Crowe test successful; gravity + leaching circuits now commissioned; no revenue yet in Q1

Stock confirmed (40 kg gold + 60 kg dore = 80 kg). 1 kg/day strike rate achieved. Q1 only 90 kg total produced in full quarter

Q1 actual 29% vs. prior 75% EBITDA guidance. Management acknowledges miss, attributes to startup phase, asks for 'one or two more quarters' to stabilize. Prior ₹900 Cr FY27 revenue target now abandoned; no formal revision given.

Prior guidance assumed 300 Cr revenue FY2027. Call confirms only pilot dore production; full-scale from Sept Q2. 160 kg FY27 output (vs. prior 300 kg implied) reduces FY2027 contribution.

MD now quantifies capex needs ₹2000+ Cr across 4 projects. Prior guidance on 'raising capital' was vague. Funding through off-take, government schemes, debt now emphasized (unproven).

Maintains 500–600 kg FY2027. MD concedes 1 kilo/day is 'first step' and will increase. Not a raise; vague range suggests low confidence in precision.

Still 500–600 kg this year, 750–800 next. By end Q2 we'll have clear idea whether 600 kg achieved. Price also matters (₹1.5L/10g now vs. lower before).

Initial expenses high; only 59 kg sold. 80 kg stock. By Q2, with more sales, margins will stabilize to 65–70%. Give us time till next quarter.

Critical minerals via off-take (battery makers fund like Elon Musk). Gold projects via equity and debt mix. Will approach market once results improve.

Professional team driving for now. No decision yet on strategic partner. Depends on how we deliver on projects.

Based on Geomysore Board decision. Currently money is going into expansion, land acquisition. Honestly, I doubt we get dividends this year. Maybe next year.

Underground phase in 3–4 years; ₹150–200 Cr capex. Will fund from internal accruals. Shafts in Jonnagiri later phase ~400 Cr, also internal.

Hearings started post-May vacation. Similar cases now have precedent (Gadchiroli iron ore restored rights). We're hopeful. If lease granted, 1 ton gold in 2–3 years. Still waiting.

Hutti is prospecting license only, not mining lease like Ganajur. Ganajur is our focus; feasibility complete, approvals obtained. Hutti still a prospecting license; lower priority.

Jonnagiri ramp ongoing (1 kg/day current). Kyrgyzstan full production from Q2. Both vague ranges; dependent on no major operational issues and gold prices stable.

Q1 actual 29% vs. 75% prior guidance. MD blames startup phase, initial expenses. Assumes production ramp absorbs fixed costs; unproven.

₹400–500 Cr per 1000-TPD gold plant; ₹650–700 Cr for 3000-TPD (Bhalukona); ₹150–200 Cr underground phases. Funding strategy unproven (off-take, equity raises, government loans).

Q1 margin 29% vs. 75% promised. Jonnagiri ramp slow (90 kg Q1, targeting 600 kg FY27). Kyrgyzstan not yet at full production. Startup cost overruns likely.

₹2000+ Cr capex needed for 4 projects (Bhalukona 3000 TPD = ₹650–700 Cr alone). Funding strategy: off-take arrangements (unproven), government loans (speculative), equity raises (dilution). No binding commitments disclosed.

Deccan holds only 7.3% of Geomysore (Jonnagiri). ₹87 Cr operational revenue flows to Geomysore; Deccan books ₹6.35 Cr profit only. No dividend expected FY2027. Cash realization timing misaligned with capex needs.

Ganajur gold project in litigation; mining lease restoration sought. Hearings started post-May 2026; verdict timeline uncertain (could be 2+ years). Hutti prospecting license status also unclear. Upside potential if restored; downside if rejected.

Gold price ₹1.5L/10g now (cited as favorable). If falls below ₹1.2L/10g, margins collapse. Kyrgyzstan operations in Central Asia; Altyn Tor dore bars go to Kyrgyzstan government refinery (LBMA pricing). Political/sanctions risk in region.