Growth masking margin squeeze; recovery unproven
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Hold
confidence 6/10
Grade B
Reaffirmed capex Rs350 Cr, maintained medical/EV timelines. But PAT -3% YoY despite revenue +17% signals execution lag vs. bullish tone.
Cautiously Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Optimistic
multi-year
Solid 17% revenue growth on engineering volume momentum, but consolidated PAT down 3% YoY signals margin recovery lagging. Management confident on steel price passthrough and new business ramps (medical 20%, EV breakeven FY27-28, CDMO FY28) but execution risk remains high: Q1 already showed PBIT flat in engineering despite strong volumes, Shanthi Gears profit crashed 55%, cell constraints expected 2-3 more quarters.
₹6215.3 Cr
Revenue · +17.1% YoY₹294 Cr
Reported PAT · −3% YoYCompressing
Margins · vs guidance: OverstatedDid the claims hold up?
Engineering volume growth 17% with strong momentum
OVERSTATEDVolume 17% confirmed; PBIT Rs153 Cr flat YoY despite volume growth
EV business behind peak losses with highest ever turnover
OVERSTATEDRevenue Rs250 Cr (up 26% YoY) with PBIT Rs9 Cr; segment still loss-making per call
Medical 20% revenue growth with profitability continuation
UnverifiedMedical part of Others segment (Rs256 Cr, +8.5% YoY); specific medical growth unverified at call level
Full recovery of steel inflation losses including Q1 in coming quarters
MISSQ1 OPM 8.8%, consolidated PAT down 3% YoY; recovery timing unproven
Double-digit EBIT margin growth going forward
PartialNo specific margin guidance given; avoided quantifying Q1 underrecovery
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Capex: reaffirmed Rs350 Cr
MaintainedPrior guidance 300-350 Cr; now Rs350 Cr confirmed for FY27. No upgrade, upper band locked.
Medical growth: 20% confirmed
MaintainedPrior: 15-20% YoY medical growth guidance. Current: 20% growth in surgical core business reaffirmed. Others segment (inclusive) grew 8.5%, so specific medical outperformance claimed.
EV loss profile: improving visibility
UpgradeQ1 showed 64% loss reduction vs Q4, PBIT Rs9 Cr positive; one business to breakeven FY27, two in FY28 (vs. prior vague timeline).
Margin recovery: delayed confirmation
NeutralCall claimed full steel recovery + margin neutralization in coming quarters; but delayed quantifying Q1 underrecovery, suggesting lag longer than expected.
Export momentum: double-digit growth
UpgradeConfirmed >10% export growth in Q1; 14% of consolidated revenue; new Nepal EV exports (100+ units shipped).
MFP outlook: weakened
DowngradeMFP PBIT down 24% YoY despite 11.5% revenue growth; Greenfield delay by 6 months; Hyundai drag continuing.
The Q&A
Analysts pressed hard on margin compression (Joseph George, Salil Desai, Anupam Gupta); management held guidance but deflected on quantifying Q1 underrecovery and concrete margin recovery timelines. Joseph George asked for specific recovery amount — Ahuja refused. Salil Desai probed whether recovery includes cumulative Q1 loss — Ahuja confirmed yes for steel only. No evasion, but lack of specificity weakened credibility on near-term recovery.
Margin pressure Q1 — Joseph George, IIFL Capital
PartialSteel price increase lagged by 2-3 quarters; confident full recovery will happen; margin neutralization in coming quarters.
Quantified underrecovery — Joseph George, IIFL Capital
DodgedDeclined to give number; said will grow EBIT margin in double digit post-price recovery.
Cumulative margin recovery — Salil Desai, Marcellus
AnsweredFor steel prices, including Q1, we will recover fully.
Medical 3-5x growth claim — Devesh Kayal, Boring AMC
PartialCore surgical 20% YoY growth with profitability; new Medicura acquisition will take time on margins. Confident double-digit growth continues.
CDMO/3xper timeline — Devesh Kayal, Boring AMC
AnsweredCommissioning done; clean room 30-40 days; inspection FY28; 15 customers working with us at semi-commercial; on track for revised projections.
MFP segment weakness — Salil Desai, Marcellus
AnsweredVolume-led growth; railways still a drag; Hyundai weak; Greenfield delayed 6 months; price recovery yet to come.
EV loss reduction drivers — Salil Desai, Marcellus
AnsweredAll four businesses seeing traction; volumes strong (HCV, SCV highest ever, 3W up 64% from Q4); margins improving despite commodity headwinds; no one-off.
EV peak losses — Prithvi Raj Earle, Unifi
AnsweredDirectionally yes; volumes increasing QoQ so beyond peak losses now.
EV breakeven timeline — Prithvi Raj Earle, Unifi
AnsweredVaries by business. One business breakeven FY27, two in FY28.
Engineering volume growth — Prithvi Raj Earle, Unifi
AnsweredVolume grew about 17%.
EV 3W wholesale vs Vahan lag — Joseph George, IIFL Capital
Answered30-45 day lag between billing and Vahan; over 3-6 months they match; last year billing 6,700 vs Vahan 6,500.
Subsidiary investment plan FY27 — Joseph George, IIFL Capital
AnsweredRs250 Cr already infused Q4; Rs250 Cr more in Q3; total Rs750 Cr guidance over period.
Non-steel inflation recovery — Anupam Gupta, HDFC
PartialFirst time seeing this quantum; taken up with customers; in discussions; hopeful majority recoverable.
Cycles business recovery — Anupam Gupta, HDFC
AnsweredQ1 strong for cycles (schools/colleges opening); improved share; targeting at least 2 basis point margin improvement over year.
Orange Koi business plan — Anupam Gupta, HDFC
AnsweredPart of Others. Small startup acquisition for metal injection molding (additive manufacturing). Will study market for 1-2 quarters before scaling guidance.
Jayem EV losses despite growth — Salil Desai, Marcellus
AnsweredHeadwinds in design/development core business; diversifying into battery manufacturing (high potential); battery assembly line set up FY27; outlook positive for top/bottom line.
Capex excluding CG Power — Salil Desai, Marcellus
AnsweredTI Rs350 Cr, Shanthi Gear Rs100 Cr. Going to engineering, MFP, TI Medical, 3xper CDMO. Group ex-CG Rs600-700 Cr total.
TI Clean Mobility investor conversion — Ketan Sanghvi
AnsweredConversion at IPO only. No fixed IPO timeline. Depends on market conditions, profitability, revenue. Stake decided by valuation at that time.
Export momentum engineering — Prithvi Raj Earle, Unifi
AnsweredNext 1-2 quarters bullish. Exports >10% growth (double digit); 14% of TI revenue; momentum to continue unless geopolitical hurdles.
Nepal EV exports — Harshvardhan Kothari
Answered100+ units shipped/in process; initial feedback very positive; bullish on Nepal market; also exploring Africa (Tanzania/Ethiopia) exploratory stage.
Cell supply bottleneck — Harshvardhan Kothari
PartialGenuine challenge Q1+. Chinese tax exemptions lifting in 2-3 quarters will bring prices down; but BESS demand high, so prices not cooling Q1/Q3. Mitigating: pre-booking, locking prices with suppliers.
Tipper order book HCV — Harshvardhan Kothari
AnsweredIntroduced Q1 (28-ton); market shifting to 35-ton+. 20-25 tippers sold; feedback positive. Market seeding while serving existing order book (4x2 tractor trailer confirmed orders).
Port HCV deployments — Harshvardhan Kothari
AnsweredWelspun Anjar: 22 trucks deployed; Vizag/Chennai single digits; Wonder Cement: 2 ports (Tuna, Dahej). Other ports in discussions.
L3 autos rollout — Harshvardhan Kothari
AnsweredIntroduced Q1 in select UP/Bihar markets (partial seeding/testing). Feedback pending before full rollout decision.
NCR EV policy traction — Harshvardhan Kothari
AnsweredYes, seeing traction. Mandatory phase in couple months will drive huge demand. Ramping dealer appointments, secondary footprints in NCR.
Guidance
Engineering strong momentum next 1-2 quarters
MediumQ1 volume +17%; demand bullish across segments except Hyundai; geopolitical risk flagged
Medical 20% YoY revenue growth with profitability
MediumCore surgical confirmed 20%; Medicura acquisition will weigh on margins initially
EV revenue growth via volume traction
MediumAll 4 businesses seeing volumes; Q1 Rs240 Cr highest-ever; NCR policy mandatory Sep 2026 will drive demand
EBIT margin double-digit improvement post-price recovery
LowNo baseline or target number; steel recovery 2-3 quarters lag; non-steel inflation ongoing discussions
Cycles margin target at least 2bp improvement
MediumAiming for ~5 percentage point margins over FY27; Q1 benefited from school/college openings
EV margin recovery on volume ramp
MediumOne business FY27 breakeven, two in FY28; still loss-making overall despite Q1 improvement
TI standalone Rs350 Cr capex FY27
HighConfirmed; going to engineering, MFP, medical, CDMO; prior range 300-350 Cr
Shanthi Gear Rs100 Cr capex FY27
HighStated explicitly; subsidiary expansion
Group ex-CG Power capex Rs600-700 Cr
MediumTotal inclusive of TI, Shanthi Gear, subsidiaries; includes medical, EV, CDMO ramp
Risks the call surfaced
Margin recovery execution
HighQ1 PBIT flat in engineering (+20% volume) suggests pricing headroom limited. Customers may resist price increases. Non-steel inflation (fuel, freight) also under negotiation with uncertain outcomes.
Subsidiary underperformance
MediumShanthi Gears PBT down 55% YoY (Rs14 Cr vs Rs31 Cr) on same revenue base (slight decline). Drags consolidated ROIC despite strong engineering. CG Power offset by Shanthi weakness.
MFP segment weakness
MediumMFP PBIT Rs28 Cr (-24% YoY) on 11.5% revenue growth. Railways segment dragging; Hyundai (specific customer) not performing; Greenfield expansion delayed 6 months (capacity lag).
EV breakeven uncertainty
MediumEV business still loss-making overall (PBIT Rs9 Cr standalone but larger losses in subsidiaries Jayem, TI Clean Mobility). Breakeven claims (one FY27, two FY28) are directional not quantified. Cell supply constraints expected 2-3 more quarters.
New business gestation (CDMO, Medical)
Medium3xper CDMO inspection FY28 (not FY27); commercial ramp post-inspection uncertain. TI Medical Medicura margins will be depressed 1-2 years. Both capex-heavy with delayed ROIC.
Management
Score 6/10. Candid on challenges (Hyundai, railways, Shanthi Gears, cell constraints) but vague on margin recovery timing/quantum. Deflected on quantifying Q1 underrecovery. Confident tone on long-term but wavering on near-term execution. Mixed: Volume growth 17% delivered; export >10% delivered. But PBIT flat in engineering, Shanthi down 55%, margin recovery lagging 2-3 quarters. PAT -3% despite revenue +17% signals execution shortfall vs. guidance tone.
1 · Q2-Q3 FY27
Steel price passthrough to customers; margin neutralization expected
2 · Q2 FY27
TI Medical IV cannula facility commissioning; revenue from Medicura acquisition
3 · Q3 FY27
Rs250 Cr subsidiary investment second tranche; capex deployment acceleration
Management confident on steel price passthrough and new business ramps (medical 20%, EV breakeven FY27-28, CDMO FY28) but execution risk remains high: Q1 already showed PBIT flat in engineering despite strong volumes, Shanthi Gears profit crashed 55%, cell constraints expected 2-3 more quarters.
Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.