Growth momentum tempered by margin mix and Phase 3 execution risk

₹372.6 Cr actual vs ₹219 Cr prior year = +70.3% YoY

EBITDA ₹126 Cr (+22% actual), PAT ₹77.8 Cr (+15.8% actual)

Cell 259 MW (92%), module 103 MW (81%), both materially higher than prior year

EBITDA margin 34% vs 47% YoY; module growth 106% (50→103 MW). However, QoQ margin also fell despite higher cell mix—price softness + BOM pressure also culpable.

Q1 EBITDA margin compressed to 34%; management now hedged on future margins ('aim to maintain current levels')

Order book up from ₹1,161 Cr; external cell sales 153 MW of 259 MW produced

Andhra Pradesh (Naidupeta) → West Bengal (near Falta), shortlisted land awaiting approval. Cited synergies: manpower, supply chain. No capex or timeline change claimed, but 6-8 month pivot late-announced raises execution risk.

Q4 FY26 said 'healthy margins' and 'no pressure 1-2 years'; Q1 delivered 34% EBITDA margin (vs 47%) and management now defensive: 'aim to maintain levels.' Mix-driven but also price/BOM weak.

Order book ₹1,278 Cr (up from ₹1,161 Cr end-Mar), provides multi-quarter visibility despite sequential revenue decline.

Multiple investors flagged poor IR, trading at 12 PE vs peers 20-28 PE. Management acknowledged, pledged to increase investor engagement. No concrete plan disclosed.

West Bengal offers synergies: 30+ years operating experience at Falta, manpower, supply chain. Land shortlisted, approval expected this month (August). Capex ₹270 Cr unchanged, timeline June 2027 unchanged. No financial loss on AP land.

Mix is part. But price softness in prior quarter plus BOM inflation (silver) also pressured Q4, carried into Q1. Silver paste imported from China; lag between market price and absorption creates cost drag.

Yes, payback 2-3 years expected. Incremental gain from capacity (600→750 MW), watt-peak (7.6→9.5), and higher realization on TOPCon cells.

Cyclical. Monsoon seasonality slows installations/offtake, but production can't stop (demand will rise post-monsoon). Also, modules use own cells; revenue not realized until modules sell. Not alarming.

Management acknowledged limited institutional interest. Pledged more investor engagement. But conceded: we don't control stock price—depends on internal/external factors, industry dynamics.

Land approval expected this month (August). Construction start mid-September. ~9 months build. Machinery lead time 4-6 months; equipment order Dec, delivery Apr-May. 2 months trial, production ramp July onwards.

We supply to DCR (PM-Surya Ghar, PM-KUSUM), not EPC. No demand decline seen. Industry will grow due to AI, BESS, night-time solar needs.

Multiple drivers: capacity +150 MW, watt-peak per cell (7.6→9.5), efficiency gains. TOPCon cells trading higher than Mono PERC. Exact uplift hard to predict.

Capacity utilization 92% cell, 81% module; production expected to ramp toward full-run rate. QoQ decline suggests near-term normalization, not growth.

Prior Q4 said 'no pressure 1-2 years'; Q1 delivered 34%. Blended margin at risk if modules grow faster than cells. TOPCon (75% of cell capacity by Q4 FY27) may improve mix.

TOPCon: 750 MW, payback 2-3 years, expected 25% efficiency. Phase 3 location shifted AP→WB late; land approval pending.

Location pivoted AP→WB this call (6-8 months late). Land approval expected August, construction mid-Sept. June 2027 production timeline is aggressive; any slip derails FY28 capacity ramp.

EBITDA margin compressed 34% (Q1) from 47% (prior year) due to module mix growth (103 MW, +106%). Cell margins also pressured by prior-Q price softness (₹0.125/Wp, now ₹0.13/Wp). BOM inflation (silver) a headwind.

Inventory up 7% Q4→Q1 despite ₹1,278 Cr order book. Monsoon season (Jun-Sep) slows installations, curbs demand. If off-take doesn't recover post-monsoon or new capacity increases supply glut, inventory locks capital.

Stock trades at 12 PE, down 60% in 4 months, then spiked 140% in 1 month (no explanation). Limited institutional interest. If Phase 3 funding requires equity raise, poor valuation will be dilutive.

TOPCon upgrade targets 25% cell efficiency (current 23.3%). New tech, first full-scale deployment. If efficiency lags target or ramp is slow, payback extends beyond 3 years.