Guidance met; opex rising as growth accelerates
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks â the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Buy
confidence 7/10
Grade B
Met 25% AUM guidance. Credit costs on track. Opex above guided range; co-lending ramp slower than expected.
Optimistic
next 1â2 quarters
Optimistic
multi-year
Home First delivered on 25% AUM growth guidance with strong PAT expansion (+34.5% YoY) and stable asset quality. Core franchise intact, but opex is rising faster than guided (2.8% vs 2.6â2.7%) and spreads running 5â10 bps above long-term target; both reflect growth-stage hiring and market rate headwinds. CFO transition effective Aug 31 adds near-term execution risk. Maintain conviction on 25% AUM trajectory and disciplined underwriting, but near-term margin pressure warrants caution.
âš538 Cr
Revenue ¡ +18.6% YoYâš159.9 Cr
Reported PAT ¡ +34.5% YoYExpanding
Margins ¡ vs guidance: CorroboratedDid the claims hold up?
AUM 25% YoY growth FY27 (prior guidance)
METQ1 delivered 25.7% YoY AUM growth to âš16,938 Cr
Spreads maintained 5â5.25% range
OVERSTATEDIncremental spread 5.3%, book spread 5.30%, above guided range but targeting long-term convergence
Credit costs 30â40 bps guidance
METQ1 credit cost 40 bps, at upper end but within range
Strong disbursement growth, largely home loans
METDisbursement +31% YoY, +3.6% QoQ; home loans driving, LAP secondary
Asset quality stable
MET1+ DPD 4.7%, 30+ DPD 3.2%, Gross Stage 3 1.8%, all flat QoQ
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
25% AUM growth guidance reaffirmed
NeutralQ1 delivered 25.7% YoY (âš16,938 Cr), beating 25% guide by 70 bps. Maintains FY27 trajectory.
Opex to AUM above guidance
DowngradeGuidance 2.6â2.7%, Q1 at 2.8%; up 70 bps QoQ. Mgmt cites hiring, increments; expects range-bound full-year but near-term pressure evident.
Spread above long-term target
NeutralBook 5.30%, incremental 5.3% vs 5â5.25% long-term guided. Mgmt reaffirms convergence over time; fully floating rate means rate-pass-through.
BT out better than expected
UpgradeQ1 BT out 4.5%, lowest in many quarters, vs 5â6% control range. Mgmt uncertain on sustainability; says 5% is baseline expectation.
Co-lending ramp delayed
DowngradeProcess/policy changes caused Q1 hiccups. âš46 Cr disb this Q. Expects stabilization; no revised growth target yet.
The Q&A
Moderate. Analysts pressed hard on opex trajectory, spread sustainability, NPA reduction feasibility, and tech ROI metrics. Mgmt held line on 5â5.25% spread target (reaffirmed multiple times), but deflected on whether current 5.3% is sustainable without explicitly withdrawing the guidance. Candid on delinquency structural limits (won't drop dramatically without customer/underwriting shift). Q&A credibility high on core metrics, weaker on forward opex guidance and tech differentiation.
Home loan vs LAP mix â Kunal Shah, Citigroup
AnsweredYes, home loan origination higher, LAP secondary. Ticket sizes up in home loans only; LAP stable. LAP not a focus area.
Employee scaling â Kunal Shah, Citigroup
AnsweredNot entirely. Employee per branch ratio rose 1 per branch per quarter. 4 new branches = ~200 staff; remainder scaling existing operations.
Spread trajectory â Renish, ICICI Bank
PartialNo one-off. Cost of borrowing down, but floating rate book. Will pass through to customers. Committed to 5â5.25% spreads. Book will converge.
PLR/rate outlook â Renish, ICICI Bank
AnsweredUnlikely due to West Asia crisis uncertainty. No cut expected.
BT out sustainability â Renish, ICICI Bank
AnsweredInternal processes controlling BT out â branch manager engagement, top-up pitching, waterfall protocols. Whether 4.5% sustains unclear; target 5% range. Processes ongoing 5â6 quarters.
Opex guidance FY27 â Nidhesh Jain, Investec
AnsweredShould expect 5â10 bps YoY reduction. Full year guidance 2.6â2.7%.
Co-lending weakness â Nidhesh Jain, Investec
PartialQ1 process/policy changes caused hiccups. Partner banks aligning. Should stabilize going forward.
Volume vs value growth â Rajiv Mehta, Yes Securities
AnsweredRoughly 50â50. 50% from unit growth, 50% from ticket size. Productivity improving marginally.
Yield stability â Rajiv Mehta, Yes Securities
AnsweredCustomers face same challenges (can't access larger lenders). Willing to pay premium. Longer-term marginal compression offset by opex improvement.
Collections data-driven â Rajiv Mehta, Yes Securities
AnsweredBounce rates marginally improved. Q1 usually tough; this year stable/improved. Data-driven collections, AI interventions, automation easing RM load.
NIM/spread compression â Varun Dubey, Share India
AnsweredFully floating rate book. Pass through cost moves. Committed to 5â5.25% spreads on rate movement.
CIBIL score migration â Shreepal Doshi, Equirus
AnsweredNew-to-credit declining market-wide (more credit access). Philosophy: improve customer profile without sacrificing spreads/yields. Maintain 5â5.25%.
RM KRA metrics â Shreepal Doshi, Equirus
AnsweredBoth factors in KRA. Fairly stable, ~âš3.5 Cr per employee, ~âš5â5.5 Cr per sales employee annually.
Higher ticket size moat â Divyansh Gupta, Latent PMS
AnsweredThreshold has moved up. âš25â50 Lakh range lacks bank access due to documentation gaps, employment mix issues. Same as âš15 Lakh segment 10 years ago. Won't face immediate BT out.
CIBIL timing â Divyansh Gupta, Latent PMS
AnsweredAt origination time.
NPA by product â Divyansh Gupta, Latent PMS
AnsweredBroadly same range. LAP ~13â14% of portfolio, not materially different.
Borrowing rate linkage â Divyansh Gupta, Latent PMS
AnsweredExcept NHB 7-year fixed scheme, rest all floating.
LTV increase â Aayush Sharma, Adler Capital
AnsweredApartment segment traction in Bombay, Pune, larger cities Gujarat/Maharashtra. LTV higher at origination.
DPD reduction strategy â Ravi Naredi, Naredi Investments
PartialStructural â based on customer segment, underwriting, collection process. Can't reduce dramatically without changing segment/underwriting. Margin would compress.
Tariff stress resolution â Shubhankar Gupta, Equitree
AnsweredTariff-related stress addressed. Post-war, no stress buildup seen. No war impact on collections. Tirupur improving.
FY27 DPD guidance â Shubhankar Gupta, Equitree
PartialQ1 key barometer. Generally uptick in Q1, few quarters to bring back to March. Q1 excellent, should keep stable across quarters.
BT out range â Shubhankar Gupta, Equitree
PartialIf things go well, yes. Won't commit unless 2â3 quarters sustained. Currently hoping 5%.
Internal process timing â Shubhankar Gupta, Equitree
AnsweredSeveral quarters back, ~5â6 quarters ago.
Origination volume growth â Vijay Sharma, Laxmi Capital
AnsweredOriginations ~10â15% growth. Login to sanction ~40% secular trend. 50% of 31% growth from volume, 50% from value.
Tamil Nadu vs Madhya Pradesh â Vijay Sharma, Laxmi Capital
AnsweredTN: tariff stress, team issues now resolved, should see growth momentum. MP: successful team building contributed. Year-on-year fluctuation.
District exit TN â Divyansh Gupta, Latent PMS
AnsweredOne district has ~100-200 accounts. Sometimes closer to another branch, service from there. No origination, servicing continues.
Ticket size and RM targets â Divyansh Gupta, Latent PMS
PartialKRAs include both volume and value. Expectation is productivity rises. Mix dependent (new vs old RMs). Gradual process.
Tech leadership metrics â Shubhankar Gupta, Equitree
PartialDeployment improves turnaround, cost, delinquencies. Track opex, delinquencies, NPS. Disbursal per branch, AUM per employee/branch. Too early to attribute AI gains quantitatively.
NPS customer experience â Shubhankar Gupta, Equitree
AnsweredYes, NPS is quantifiable metric. Overall experience more anecdotal (branch/customer visits).
Peer NPS benchmarking â Shubhankar Gupta, Equitree
PartialCustomer experience not very quantifiable. More anecdotal on turnaround, experience vs market. Nothing quantified.
Repayment rate trend â Vijay Sharma, Laxmi Capital
PartialHard to predict. Assume 16â17% in calcs. This Q exceptional on BT out. Otherwise normal.
Prepayment behavior change â Vijay Sharma, Laxmi Capital
AnsweredNo behavioral change.
State expansion strategy â Vijay Sharma, Laxmi Capital
AnsweredUP largest potential (long-term 1â3 years). Rajasthan already well-penetrated. Southern states TN, Andhra, Telangana for growth.
Guidance
AUM growth ~25% FY27 (reaffirmed)
HighQ1 delivered 25.7% YoY. Branch network, disbursement momentum, market demand support target. Affordable housing opportunity compelling.
Portfolio spread 5â5.25% (maintained long-term)
MediumQ1 book 5.30%, incremental 5.3%, running above. Mgmt says market-driven, NHB drawdown timing; floating rate pass-through. Convergence expected over time.
NIM 6.0% Q1 (no forward guidance given)
MediumUp from 5.9% prior Q. Fully floating rate book allows pass-through. No FY27 NIM target stated.
30â40 new branches FY27
LowQ1: 4 branches added. Pacing implies ~16/year annualized if continued, well below guidance. Expansion states: UP (medium-term 1â3 years), southern (TN, AP, Telangana).
Risks the call surfaced
Cost inflation
MediumCost to income 32.7% (+70 bps QoQ). Opex to AUM 2.8% vs guided 2.6â2.7%. Increments, hiring for growth, admin expenses offset. Mgmt expects full-year "broadly range-bound" but near-term pressure evident.
Spread/NIM sustainability
MediumBook spread 5.30% vs long-term 5â5.25% target. Incremental spread 5.3%. Running 5â10 bps above guidance. Mgmt attributes to cost of borrowing dynamics and pending NHB drawdown. Fully floating rate book mitigates, but competitive intensity or rate environment shift could compress margins.
Credit quality
MediumGross Stage 3 1.8%, 1+ DPD 4.7%, 30+ DPD 3.2% flat. Credit cost 40 bps at upper end of 30â40 bps guidance. Portfolio composition shifting to higher ticket sizes (âš25+ Lakh now 18% vs 14% year ago). Geopolitical risk (West Asia), tariff tail risk. Mgmt constrained on improving DPD ratios without changing customer segment.
Co-lending channel
LowQ1 co-lending disbursements âš46 Cr vs âš617 Cr book. Process/policy changes caused Q1 hiccups. Important for capital-efficient AUM growth and customer reach. Ramp uncertain if partner bank integration delays persist.
Management transition
MediumCFO Nutan Patwari stepping down Aug 31, 2026 (announced on call). Successor appointment pending. 8-year tenure, integral to financial architecture, governance, capital strategy. Near-term execution and investor relations continuity risk.
Management
Score 7/10. Data-driven, process-oriented. MD articulate on strategy (AUM growth, AI adoption, customer segment evolution). CFO clear on financial metrics. Candid on challenges (opex, co-lending, delinquency structural limits). Declined to quantify tech ROI prematurely (honest). Met 25% AUM guidance (25.7%). PAT +34.5% YoY strong. Cost-to-income up 70 bps QoQ (miss on opex guidance 2.6â2.7%, at 2.8%). Co-lending ramp slow (process issues). BT out beat (4.5% vs 5% expected, but sustainability uncertain). Branch pacing slow (4 in Q1, implied 16/year vs 30â40 target).
1 ¡ Q2 FY27
NHB drawdown (âš354 Cr planned), co-lending stabilization post-process fix
2 ¡ Sep 2026
CFO appointment conclusion; Nutan Patwari exits Aug 31
3 ¡ Q2âQ4 FY27
AI/tech pilots move to production (underwriting, collections automation), expense leverage
Maintain conviction on 25% AUM trajectory and disciplined underwriting, but near-term margin pressure warrants caution.
Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.