Guidance on track, but prepayments surge & growth lags peers

Confirmed: Karnataka 18%, Telangana higher, all zones grew YoY

Q1 at 10.8%, need 14% full-year; gap ₹100 Cr higher rundown vs plan

Q1 delivered 3.81%, beat by 6 bps; spread also beat at 2.83% vs 2.81%

Tracking to 10 bps; NPA increase restricted to ₹17-18 Cr vs ₹41-45 Cr prior years

IT sector exposure only 6%, Karnataka NPA lower YoY, no recent losses

Q1 rundown ₹1,857 Cr, ₹127 Cr higher than plan; main driver is part-prepayments up ₹96 Cr

Projected ₹1,750 Cr/quarter rundown; Q1 delivered ₹1,857 Cr due to part-prepayment surge (+₹96 Cr). Need to push higher disbursements (₹3,000+ target) to offset.

FY27 14% target still stated but Q1 at 10.8%; management now hints may push to ₹13.2-13.4 Cr disbursement (vs ₹13 Cr guide) to bridge gap. This is aspiration, not guidance.

3.75% guide confirmed at 3.81% delivery; management cited opportunities in product/segment mix to sustain. No new uplift, but higher conviction.

5 branches live, all processes working (sanctions, disburse, closures, NACH); 12 days in, back to normal business volumes. Removes major FY27 headwind.

First explicit mention of rate gap widening to 1%+ vs banks; Bajaj housing at 25-30% growth flagged as pressure point. Prior call was more guarded.

No slowdown seen across geographies. Added 60 APF projects; tightened customer selection: CIBIL >700 now 82% (vs 75%), added EWS signals, OTMS monitoring. No underwriting norm changes announced.

5 branches implemented 8th July, all processes live. Will roll to 245 branches by month-end basis (July, Aug, Sep data). Target: complete before next earnings. No business disruption expected; 5 branches nearly back to normal business.

Yes, confident on ₹3,000 Cr. May even push to ₹13.2-13.4 Cr full-year if IT progresses. 5 branches show no material downtime. May need 50-100 branches per month handholding, but system is solid.

Blended 9.8%; salaried >₹25L CIBIL >725 gets 8.4%, goes up to 11% by customer rating. Non-salaried non-housing S3 highest at ~12.5%. Complex 2x2/3x3 matrix.

IT exposure only 6%, no impact yet. Karnataka NPA lower YoY. HL ₹1,650 Cr (+28%), NHL ₹958 Cr (+32%). APF still small, 15% contribution 'a while away'.

Main competitors are LIC and Bajaj (not banks). BT out stable at ₹408 Cr. Bajaj has tech edge; we catching up post-IT transformation. Will target 20%+ growth to narrow gap.

IT sector 6% of book; top IT company employees nearly absent. NACH bounce ratios down 6 quarters. No elevated delinquency in IT segment observed yet.

Conservative customer selection + tight credit policies. Trade-off: sometimes lost growth opportunities. Fraud provisions separate (₹60+ Cr if written off). Culture of discipline over growth.

FY27: 19.5% expected. IT AMCs/depreciation stabilise, but as book grows ratio comes down. 3-year target: 18%. Long-term average.

Breakup: ₹408 Cr BT out, ₹377 Cr closures, ₹1,072 Cr part-prepayments (main issue). Customers prepaying due to tenure crash on rate reset. Working on deposit conversion & credit bureau alerts to retain. Rate differential (now 1% vs banks) is headwind; if repo rises may ease.

Bajaj has tech first-mover edge, higher TAT. We catching up. On products: IT transformation opens opportunity for 11-13% yield products, but Board hasn't deliberated yet.

Q1: 2.39% ROA, 18%+ ROE. Opex impact already started, so trajectory manageable. NIM & spreads on track, credit cost benign. No reason to believe targets unachievable.

SENP 0.5% yield higher, documented income segment. SENP GNPA 1.45% vs salaried 0.6-0.63%. After credit cost factoring, 0.5% ROI accretive.

5 branches show faster speed. 6 months to stabilize. Staffing benefits expected this year; additional sales from existing team size only. TAT, quality improvements immediate.

Q1 beat by ₹109 Cr; Q2 targeting ₹3,000 Cr (vs ₹3,000 Cr plan); on track. May push to ₹13.2-13.4 Cr if IT progresses.

Confident to maintain at 3.81%+ due to bank funding opportunities, no uplift in borrowing costs on existing loans (T-bill/repo linked), product mix opportunities.

Already started kicking in Q1; some capitalized (depreciation from Sep onward), some expensed. Impact front-loaded, then stabilizes.

Part-prepayments jumped ₹96 Cr to ₹1,072 Cr (Q1) due to tenure crash post-quarterly reset + rate cut pass-through. Customers now paying down principal faster at same EMI; this will hurt AUM growth and net yield.

CFH best rate 8.4% vs bank 7.15-7.25% = 1%+ gap (was 55 bps before repo cuts). Makes it hard to convince customers to stay; 1% EMI impact on ₹25L loan is material.

Revenue growth 7.4% YoY; Bajaj HFC at 25-30% growth. AUM growth 10.8% vs FY27 14% target. If can't accelerate, will lose competitive positioning in a consolidating HFC market.

5 branches live (12 days), all processes working (sanctions, disburse, NACH, closures). Plan to roll 245 branches by month-end basis (Aug, Sep). Aggressive timeline; Aug/Sep will test scaling and branch stability.

SENP (self-employed) growing 44% YoY, now 37% of mix. GNPA 1.45-1.5% vs salaried 0.6-0.63%. If SENP growth continues unchecked, portfolio credit quality could deteriorate.