Margin mirage: +22% revenue, -24.5% volumes; exceptional profits are unsustainable

Revenue ₹1,693 Cr (+22% YoY), EBITDA 19.53% delivered; margins expanded but volumes declined 24.5%

GPPS delta USD 200→300+ (50%+ rise), HIPS USD 275→400+ (45%+ rise); fully explains 188% EBITDA growth

Volumes 70,842 MT vs 93,853 MT prior year; non-OEM evaporated; exports minimal due to freight, supply constraints

Management explicitly stated deltas are unsustainable; current GPPS 250-275 and HIPS 350 will revert; implies margin compression inevitable

Q1 showed -24.5% volumes; management declined to reaffirm guidance, said Q1 not a benchmark; guidance effectively withdrawn

Prior FY27 8-10% conditional growth guidance abandoned post -24.5% Q1 decline; mgmt declined to reaffirm or replace

19.5% EBITDA margin explicitly labeled 'aberration'; deltas will normalize; implies compression from current +300 bps to historical +150-200 bps

Exports down 90% in Q1; mgmt shifted focus to domestic OEM; export recovery conditional on Red Sea/shipping normalization (timing uncertain)

EPS Phase 2 complete, new PS line approved Dec 2028; ₹450 Cr from internal accruals; unchanged from prior call

Non-OEM demand down ~50% due to high prices and gas supply constraints. OEM stable. Exports 90% down. Import duty exemption drove ~20k tons imports (vs normal ~87k). Situation unprecedented, not comparable to past cycles.

Margins entirely from global delta widening. Volumes down 25%. Deltas (GPPS USD 200→300+, HIPS USD 275→400+) are aberrations that will normalize. Margins dependent on global trends, not operational leverage.

Giving guidance when situation fluid is very difficult. Non-OEMs stabilizing now. Uncertainty on exports, styrene availability, shipping, freight. Will take quarter by quarter. Q1 not benchmark for year.

EPS done. Focusing on ABS line 2, XPS, compounds. PS line 5 approved last quarter. All capacities on board by March 2029. ₹900 Cr total capex from internal accruals. Asset turns 2x on full capacity.

Current CIF USD 1,300. Q1 range USD 1,350-1,400, peaked USD 1,500+. Current deltas GPPS USD 250-275, HIPS USD 350. Deltas peaked at 300+/400+, came down briefly in June peace accord, rebounded. Will normalize over time.

Yes, at par with industry. EPS fragmented (many small players), we de-grew less. Polystyrene, industry de-grew same rate. Capex for long-term (2-2.5 yrs out), not temporary events. India export growth, cold chains, efficient buildings tailwinds. Board approved keeping these factors in view.

No ready numbers on ABS market size. Whatever capacity we build, demand exists to sell. Next 3-4 years should fully sell out new capacity. ABS did very well even in this weak quarter.

Non-OEMs had price resistance, demand down. OEMs stable, demand same or better. Now non-OEMs have reconciled to price increases as global phenomenon. Demand from non-OEMs back into market.

Management declined to project revenue citing fluid geopolitical situation; non-OEM recovery trajectory anecdotal

Global GPPS delta USD 250-275 (down from 300+), HIPS USD 350 (down from 400+); management explicitly said margins are aberration; historical deltas 150-200 bps imply revert to 12-15% EBITDA range

Board-approved; funded entirely from internal accruals; timelines firm; targeting 2x asset turns on full capacity across all segments

All three styrene plants in Middle East (major supplier) suspended operations. Strait of Hormuz disruptions cut cargo shipments. Company forced to source from distant suppliers at 20-30% freight premium. Red Sea shipping crisis ongoing.

Non-OEM demand evaporated ~50% in Q1 due to price resistance and downstream gas supply constraints. Temporary import duty exemption (3.5 months) drove ~20k tons imports (~11% market share) vs normal ~87k tons annually, eroding domestic producer margins and share. Price resistance from non-OEM segment confirmed.

Q1 19.5% EBITDA margin entirely driven by exceptional global styrene-to-polystyrene spreads (GPPS +300 bps, HIPS +350 bps vs historical). Management explicitly warned this is an 'aberration' and deltas will 'normalize' as West Asia supply constraints ease. Historical deltas imply EBITDA margin revert to 12-15% range (400-500 bps compression).

₹450 Cr capex (EPS June 2027, PS line 5 Dec 2028) assumes demand recovery over 2-2.5 year horizon. Industry and Supreme both de-grew 24.5% in Q1; capex predicated on structural India export growth and appliance manufacturing expansion (PLI scheme). Risk: demand recovery slower than expected, or macro deterioration, could leave new capacity underutilized.