Missed 20% guidance; 18% AUM growth explained by accounting change, asset quality holds

AUM ₹31,364 Cr (18% YoY vs FY26 ₹26,563 Cr). Prior guidance 20% AUM target for FY27.

PAT ₹282.4 Cr (19% YoY vs ₹237 Cr in Q1 FY26). Misses 20% by 100 bps, close.

Portfolio yield 13.5%, cost of funds 7.7% = 5.8% spread. Prior guidance allowed 8-10 bps annual contraction.

GNPA 1.31% vs 1.34% prior year (3 bps improvement), Stage 2 3.3% vs 3.7% (40 bps improvement). Collector efficiency 99%.

Handover: ₹2,359 Cr (19% YoY). Clearance: ₹2,036 Cr (reported). Accounting change moved recognition 5-7 days later; Q2 expected catch-up.

628 total branches as of June. Q1 opening 2, Q4 opening 5. Management says Q1 deliberate restraint, will open 45-50 in Q2-Q4.

Recognition now at cheque clearance (5-7 day lag) vs handover. ₹2,036 Cr Q1 clearance vs ₹2,359 Cr handover. Industry-standard move for RBI compliance. Q2+ unaffected.

Prior guidance: 8-10 bps annual spread contraction. Actual: held flat despite Feb 2026 RPLR cut. Urban-emerging strategy and emerging-branch mix paying off.

Missed guidance by 200 bps in Q1. Q1 particulars: AUM ₹31,364 Cr (prior ₹26,563 Cr). Management attributes to business timing, expects catch-up Q2-Q4.

Lowest in 8-10 quarters. Central retention team (20 members), data analytics segmentation, delegation on yields by MOB/bounce rate. Multi-year effort.

Urban-emerging strategy: emerging at 14-14.8% yield vs urban 11.5-12%. 450 of 628 branches in emerging locations. No single state >15% contribution. Delhi contribution up (low-yield) yet spreads held, confirming strategy working.

Minimal 2-3 day impact on interest recognition. Not material. Portfolio yield (13.5%) flat confirms no major headwind.

Q4 has contests/competition expense (Q4-specific). Q1 has annual increments (~10-12%). Q1 FY27 includes fresh ESOP charge of ₹14-15 Cr (first quarter of new ESOP). Excluding ESOP, employee cost growth ~14-15% YoY, roughly in line with 11% increments.

Yes, seasonal. Historically Q1 credit cost 40-45 bps, ends year at 23-24 bps. Last year: 1.34% Q1 NPA, ended 1.08-1.1%. Confident holding 1.1% by FY27 end. Bounce rate stable; collection efficiency 99%.

Liquidity 11.8% of borrowings; target 7-8% (quarter-end build). Cost of funds 7.7% vs 8% prior year. 75% assets repriced; won't see rate impact for 1-2 quarters minimum. Interest rates not hiking yet as of July. Risk managed via RPLR model.

No demand issues. Urban actually growing faster than expected last 2 quarters. Emerging needs to accelerate to balance mix. No specific slowdown observed.

FY25: moved from disbursement to cheque handover recognition. FY27: moved from handover to cheque clearance/realization (5-7 day gap eliminated). Now interest recognized only at cheque realization. Forward-looking governance improvement. Most peers already moved.

Expect 6-7 bps OpEx/AUM reduction per year. Cost-to-income dropping 30-40 bps annually. Over last 2 years, dropped 150 bps cost-to-income. Excluding ESOP (₹15 Cr/quarter), CIR would be 33-34%. AI projects will compound benefits further.

1+ DPD: 7%. BT out: 5% (20 bps improvement vs Q1 FY26 at 5.2%).

Overall NHB blended 6.9%; includes AHF ₹140 Cr at 4.3%. Remaining ₹500-600 Cr NHB at higher rate. Excluding NHB entirely, CoF 7.4-7.5%.

Incremental yields flat, no reason they should drop. Emerging mix (14-14.8% yield) being calibrated vs urban (11.5-12%). If 50-50 urban-emerging reached in medium term, incremental yields controlled and spreads maintained ≥5.5%.

Conscious reduction in last 2 quarters due to West Asia crisis (non-homes riskier than homes). Deliberate decision. Will normalize back to historical 70-30 (home-nonhome) split from current 76-24 once crisis stabilizes. Expect Q2-Q3 improvement.

Don't have detailed state-level data readily. But don't see an issue; if there was a major one, it would have flagged. Some states have internal restrictions (export-oriented markets); those may show slight declines at branch level but not material.

Yes. Reiterate FY27 guidance: 20% AUM, 20% PAT, 17-18% disbursement growth. Next 3 quarters: incremental disbursement >20%. Q2 will catch up on Q1 accounting impact.

Q4 we avoid openings (disruption). Q1 we restricted to 2 (could have done 5-7). Couple proposals moved to July. Completely on track for 45-50 per year. Q2-Q3 will see acceleration.

No; you need to add ₹350 Cr to AUM growth as well. When both adjusted, overall repayment rate is 16.5%, not 21%. Routine, no prepayment spike.

Most companies have already moved or are in process of moving to cheque realization. It's true spirit of RBI circular. We took longer due to systemic changes required. Industry practice, not pioneering.

No current plan. Need capital for growth (IPO raised ₹1,000 Cr for 3-4 year runway). Risk weight of balance sheet 45%; holds 6-7% capital for operational risk per ICAAP. Similar levels to peer affordable lenders. No appetite to reduce below current.

Spreads 5.5% over 2-3 years (floor). ROA 4.3-4.4% steady state. Targeting ~17% ROE in couple of years with this mix.

Combination of factors: customer service teams at critical branches + central retention team (20 members) + data analytics segmentation (red-amber-green) + delegation on yields by MOB/bounce rate. Multi-year initiative started ~2 years ago. Took concerted effort.

Q1 at 18% (2% below). Management expects Q2-Q4 catch-up from accounting change carryforward. No cut to guidance despite Q1 miss.

Q1 impacted by cheque recognition shift. July already at ~₹900 Cr, pace suggests >20% recovery in Q2-Q3.

Currently 5.8%. Urban-emerging strategy with 450 branches in emerging locations yielding 14-14.8% vs urban 12% provides cushion.

Over last 2 years dropped 150 bps. AI initiatives (6-layer architecture, 5 proprietary platforms) expected to compound benefits.

Only 2 opened Q1 (deliberate). Q2-Q3 will see acceleration. New branches reach productivity in 9-15 months.

New entrants targeting affordable housing; pricing aggression could force Aadhar into lower-yield segments or margin compression. Currently held at 5.5%+ via emerging strategy, but sustainability of 50-50 urban-emerging mix not guaranteed.

West Asia crisis impacting NRI loans, fuel-dependent trade, travel segments. Monsoon impact on rural/semi-urban cash flows. Acknowledged as broader industry risk; Aadhar exposure said minimal but not fully hedged.

Q1 AUM 18% vs 20% guidance; PAT 19% vs 20%. Disbursement impact from accounting change carryforward unquantified (said Q2-Q4 will catch up). Branch expansion only 2 in Q1 vs 45-50 annual target; needs sharp acceleration. If execution falters, guidance at risk.

Cost of funds stable Q1 (7.7%) but market expects rate hikes H2. Though 75% of assets repriced via RPLR model, lag risk exists if rates rise sharply. Floating borrowing/asset base (78%/73%) provides cushion but not full protection.

Stage 2 at 3.3% (Q1 seasonal high, 40 bps provision cost). If macro environment deteriorates or monsoon underperforms, Stage 2/NPA could not normalize as historically expected. Bounce rate stable so far.