Print anchor steady, but newsprint/forex headwinds cap upside

Print ad revenue grew 15% YoY; majority driven by yield/pricing, not volume

English circulation grew 14% (₹13 Cr vs ₹12 Cr prior year); mostly pricing, minimal copy growth

PAT 399.7% YoY but from trough; NPM 21% is healthy, but base FY26 Q1 was deeply unprofitable

Newsprint 25-40% of bill-of-material; at $650-700/MT, highest post-COVID; dollar at lifetime high doubles impact

Digital revenue down 28% YoY; operating EBITDA negative ₹3 Cr (margin -12%)

Prior FY26 guidance stated OTTplay would be evaluated. Now exited, removing ₹10s Cr annual losses. Evident in Q1 improved profitability.

Radio now operating at EBITDA -₹3 Cr (breakeven at best). Prior calls expected stabilization; instead, rationalization underway.

Consolidated employee cost down to ₹99 Cr from ₹111 Cr YoY. Right-sizing cited; consistent cost discipline.

Now explicitly flagged as peak, no hedge available, double whammy with weak rupee. Prior calls were more sanguine; now cautious.

HT Media + DCL debt-laden; HMVL cash surplus not available for both. Preferential faster, certain vs rights. SEBI formula applied; 30-50% debt retirement accretive to EPS.

Newsprint peaked at $650-700/MT, should plateau. If stable, margins defensible. Q2 has higher newsprint; exact margins depend on ad mix and pricing achieved.

No forward market for newsprint, so no hedging possible. Cover price hikes difficult; Hindi papers already repriced. Volume actions preferred to maintain reach.

Majority pricing via yield improvement program. Commercial revenues held on volume. Government rates up 7 years (Nov 2025), cycling benefit in next 2 quarters.

Mostly pricing (₹1.5 Cr absolute change despite 14%). Mix shift between subscription/line copies, discounting. Steady-state copy levels maintained.

Treasury gains on mutual funds (NAV-based, not MTM). Yield curve movement end-quarter helped. Volatile; cannot predict. Also realized profit on asset sales.

Debt in HT Media for 3-4 years post-COVID in English Print/Radio. HMVL is cash-positive. Consolidated net cash ₹922 Cr masks this split. Debt in HTMedia needs retirement.

Both companies publish separate financials. Prefer one con-call for efficiency. Shareholders can ask on either company.

Mgmt expressed 'very hopeful' but stated 'no forward guidance.' Depends on macro, newsprint commodity, pricing power.

Can model on 13% assumption. But imponderables: if dollar hits 100 and newsprint ₹700, margin dilution evident.

Mgmt 'best estimate' given no forward market. Commodity call subject to error. Dollar also at lifetime high.

Newsprint 25-40% of COGS at $650-700/MT (peak). Dollar at lifetime high. No forward market for newsprint; cannot hedge. Full pass-through to margins if prices don't reverse.

Digital segment -28% revenue, -₹3 Cr EBITDA (margin -12%). Portfolio being reset for 'sustainable, profitable offerings.' No turnaround timeline or specific milestones provided.

Board approved preferential issue at ₹24/share vs ₹70 book value (66% discount). Shareholders (Ranga Prasad, Mehul Pathak) voted against, citing dilution and ethical concerns. Mgmt defended SEBI formula pricing but credibility dented.

Print ad revenue +15% driven 'substantially' by yield/pricing. Government rates increased Nov 2025 after 7 years; commercial pricing via yield improvement. Risk: if macro slows or competitive pressure rises, pricing power erodes and volumes may compress.

Analyst (Mehul Pathak) calculated: if ₹6 EPS sustained × 4 quarters + book value ₹70 = ROE <10%. This is below cost of capital in India (~12%). Capital trapped in low-return business.