Private Markets rescued earnings; capital markets recovery ahead but uncertain

Recovered ₹1,200 Cr (group share), generating 16-18% IRR on new book post-COVID

Q1 delivered 28% AUM growth, 87% disbursement growth YoY — beat guidance

Bespoke book at 5-quarter high (₹3,000 Cr), targeting 15-20% for year — on track but unproven

Pipeline large but Q1 slow (revenue ₹115 Cr vs ₹182 Cr prior year, -37%); July recovery noted but unconfirmed

Recurring AUM up but overall wealth PAT down 10% YoY to ₹19 Cr; transactional revenue weak; 100+ RM hiring ongoing

Profitability down 10% YoY (₹19 Cr PAT) vs ₹21 Cr prior. Management holding 2-3 year buildout, but revenue flat (₹185 Cr vs ₹211 Cr YoY) and margin compression real. Raised hiring (100+ RMs) but productivity unproven.

Bespoke book at 5-quarter high (₹3k Cr), half of 15-20% annual target achieved Q1. On track but syndication ramp critical—only ₹20 Cr syndication income in Q1.

Q1 was weak (-37% YoY revenue), but July claimed better than June. Prior call expected 6-month recovery; delivered Q1 soft but management says early signs in place. Unconfirmed.

AUM flat overall; non-liquid funds +16% QoQ but SIP book -30%. Small/mid-cap concentration loss. Recovery dependent on market conditions; not execution-led.

28% AUM growth (Q1) beat prior 25%+ guidance. Disbursement growth 87% YoY. Business 'on solid footing'; separate listing 2-3 years possible.

Bespoke book at 5-quarter high (₹3,000 Cr), targeting 15-20% YoY (half achieved Q1). ARC is lumpy but strong (16-18% IRR, retail 15-18%, wholesale 18-22%). Wealth: 2-3 year buildout, RM teams in place, focus now on productivity; recurring AUM growing.

Resolutions from new book (post-COVID underwriting). IRRs 18%+ on all transactions. Distressed credit portfolio ₹3,114 Cr (capital deployed), SRs ₹12,000 Cr (syndication). New book ~50% of total, expecting 16-18% IRR. Will be debt-free by year-end.

Transactional revenue down (market-dependent, widespread). Hired 100+ RMs in last 18 months; all have 2.5-3 year gestation to profitability. Major hiring phase complete; judiciously hiring now. Profitability accretion expected in next 12 months.

Non-liquid schemes +16% QoQ. SIP decline due to small/mid-cap concentration; performance improving now. Engaged with distributors, added marketing channels. Performance recovery in last 3 months should arrest decline.

Last year 11.5%, this year similar or better. CACM 15% ROE despite weak markets (naturally 35-40% ROE business). Wealth/AMC losses bringing down overall. Private markets teens ROE long-term (not higher). Wealth+AMC profitability + AMC leverage in 2+ years → stronger ROE kicker.

Regulatory constraints: can't distribute >50% of PAT, so capital reinvested. Debt:equity at 0.8x (lowest), will climb back to 2x in 3 years as syndication ramps. With syndication, ROA rich enough without 4-5x leverage. ARC debt-free by year-end, resolutions + recovery income flowing.

Net inflows Q1 ₹2,000 Cr; targeting ₹6,000+ Cr annually. Industry growing early to mid-teens; targeting above that. RM cohort productivity the focus; will be profitable within next year or so.

CACM revenue ₹592 Cr (FY24) → ₹946 Cr (FY26), nearly doubled. Wealth revenue ₹1,022 Cr (FY24) → ₹1,400 Cr (FY26), +40%. Wealth/AMC still small vs Capital Markets; need to scale first. Will evaluate demerger/listing when profitable. Tax considerations important.

SR portfolio ₹3,114 Cr targeting 16-18% return (revenues). Lumpy recognition: profit books when resolution happens. Recovered ₹1,200 Cr (cash banked), redeployed ₹600 Cr; net SR ₹3,114 Cr. Book growth less lumpy than profit. Continuing to deploy.

July revenue exceeded June. Positive surprise. FDI flows reversed from net sellers to net buyers. Early signs of recovery. If trend continues, execute majority of ₹220k Cr pipeline rest of year.

July revenues exceeded June; FDI flows reversed; early signs of recovery. Unconfirmed but management citing momentum.

Half of target achieved Q1 (₹3,000 Cr now vs ₹2,700 Cr prior). Syndication income to accelerate growth; ₹20 Cr syndication Q1.

Q1 delivered 28% AUM growth, 87% disbursement growth YoY. Separate listing pathway 2-3 years.

RM cohort 2.5-3 year gestation; major hiring complete; focus on RM productivity (net new money per RM). Wealth PAT -10% YoY now, guided to improve.

Distressed IRR already being delivered (18%+ in Q1). Bespoke book at 5-quarter high; real estate still de-growing.

Q1 ROE 11% annualized. Long-term hinges on wealth/AMC profitability and debt:equity climbing back to 2x.

Targeting ₹25,000 Cr AUM in 5 years; value creation ₹2,000+ Cr on ₹300 Cr cumulative invested (7-8x multiple by exit).

CACM revenue -37% YoY (₹115 Cr vs ₹182 Cr) due to lack of IPO issuances and primary market activity. Pipeline ₹220k Cr large but execution dependent on market window reopening.

Wealth PAT ₹19 Cr (Q1), down 10% YoY, despite AUM growth. 100+ RMs hired over 18 months. Average gestation to profitability 2.5-3 years. If cohort productivity lags or market deteriorates, ROE accretion could be delayed.

AMC equity AUM ₹10,900 Cr (+16% QoQ) but SIP book -30% YoY. Concentrated in small/mid-cap funds; corrected earlier in year. Performance recovery in progress but concentration risk remains.

60-65% of capital employed in private markets, earning teens ROE, dragging overall group ROE to 11%. Debt:equity at 0.8x (near lowest); re-leveraging to 2x within 3 years carries market/credit risk.

Private Markets net revenue doubled (₹462 Cr) from large ARC distressed credit resolution (₹1,200 Cr inflows). Management models 16-18% IRR on new book as sustainable, but lumpy profit recognition could mask underlying volatility.