Record growth, margin pressure on RM inflation; FY28 EBITDA target intact

Revenue ₹3,668 Cr (+74.7% YoY), PAT ₹168.7 Cr (+59.9% YoY); Q2 revenue grows but margin compresses QoQ

Delivered revenue ₹3,668.4 Cr, growth 74.7% YoY; claimed ₹3,887 Cr is 5.6% higher than delivered

OPM 11.2% implies EBITDA ~₹411 Cr (close to ₹418 claim). YoY growth claim plausible but not separately validated

No numerical FY27 EBITDA guidance was prior stated; FY28 target maintained. Guidance held despite favorable macro tailwinds

Officially commissioned Sept 7, 2026. PEDA and Calcium Chloride plants operational, ramping in volumes. Expected material EBITDA contribution FY28.

10-year structured agreement with global major. Capex-backed, USD 25M facility investment targeted FY29. Margin protection via pass-through, first time domestic specialty focus.

Superform partnership facility ready. Trial run in progress, order book gaining traction. ₹300–400 Cr revenue projection FY28; additive to prior ₹1,800 Cr EBITDA target.

Board approved ₹1,000 Cr capital raise authorization (Oct 1, 2026) for FY28/FY29 initiatives. Shift from ₹700–800 Cr/year to debottleneck/derisking capex; lower intensity on percent of EBITDA.

Energy revenue almost doubled from ₹1,000 Cr to ₹1,900 Cr (Q2). Fuel Additives strong on domestic pickup, Calcium Chloride benefiting from pricing uplift. Concentration risk but structural tailwind.

No upside despite RM/energy tailwinds; management explicitly resisted raising target despite analyst prompts. Cost/margin levers = offset to higher volumes.

Guidance maintained; operating on pass-through basis, so absolute margin stable but percentage can compress in inflation. Cost levers + operating leverage expected FY28 will drive the INR1,800 Cr.

Acid/Dyes hard to pass-through; Pharma/Energy pricing and volume both strong. Energy: ~2x revenue jump from Calcium Chloride volume+price, Fuel Additives domestic domestic pickup. Per-kg spreads held 2/3 of portfolio; percentage margin impacted by mix.

Inventory is a risk we manage. Forward-booking contracts protects cost at customer level. Absolute inventory optimized to 55–60 days working capital. Material reversal risk exists; one of top priorities for management.

Capex wave over; focus now on debottlenecking, not greenfield. Limited incremental capex post-Zone IV; efficiency and utilization drive next phase. Much of capacity expansion done by end-FY28.

Minimum conversion margins secured; broader partnership expected to extend beyond contractual period. First full-year manufacturing target FY29; technology transfer underway, not first time in India.

VAT subsidy removal in China key diff for NCB. PDA margin compression if oversupply continues; evaluating mix shift, but market large enough. Competitive intensity is combination of players + subsidy behavior.

Q2 run-rate ₹3,668 Cr × 4 = ₹14,672 Cr; H2 expected similar or slightly higher given Zone IV ramp and seasonal strength

Management emphasizes absolute EBITDA ₹1,800 Cr FY28 over percentage; pass-through model implies % margin stability, absolute rupee EBITDA growth

Capex wave ending post-Zone IV Phase 1 commissioning. FY28/FY29 capex expected lower in % of EBITDA; focus on debottlenecking, derisking

Inventory doubled to absorb RM cost swings. Material reversal risk if crude/sulfur/aniline prices fall sharply; margin markdown could be 1-2% on gross EBITDA.

PDA overcapacity from Chinese players; domestic price pressure if overcapacity persists. Pharma segment exposed; margins under pressure despite volume growth.

Zone IV Phase 1 operational but ramp to full utilization dependent on customer commercial production pace, yield stabilization, and market adoption. Material EBITDA contribution (₹200–250 Cr) delayed if ramp slips.

New ₹1,500 Cr 10-year contract with global specialty chemical major. First-time Aarti manufacturing of this product in India; technology transfer and yield/quality ramp critical to margin realization.

Energy (Fuel Additives + Calcium Chloride) now ~50% of portfolio, up sharply from prior. Tied to crude, naptha, gasoline-naphtha cracks. Margin sensitive to commodity cycle.

Middle East geopolitical tensions driving crude volatility, supply chain strain on freight, working capital. Impact on input costs, shipping timelines, inventory carrying costs.