Record growth, margin recovery awaited amid commodity normalization
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Buy
confidence 7/10
Grade A
FY26 mid-teens guidance for FY27 met and upgraded to high-teens; Q1 delivered outsized growth; transparent on challenges
Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Very Optimistic
multi-year
Strong Q1 delivery (+52% revenue, +29% PAT, 11 consecutive quarters of robust performance) outperforms two-wheeler industry (+22.8%). Guidance upgraded to high-teens growth backed by confirmed new orders (alloy wheels ₹250 Cr FY28, Ford ₹60 Cr FY28, sunroof cables ramping). ₹700 Cr capex credibly deployed. Key risk: margin compression (6.3% NPM) from aluminum volatility and execution risk on new South plant.
₹1358.1 Cr
Revenue · +52.4% YoY₹85.1 Cr
Reported PAT · +28.8% YoYCompressing
Margins · vs guidance: CorroboratedDid the claims hold up?
Consolidated revenue growth 52.1% with highest-ever quarterly revenue
METDelivered ₹1358.1 Cr revenue, +52.4% YoY, confirmed as highest ever
PAT ₹85 Cr with 28.8% YoY growth, EPS ₹4.32 vs ₹3.35
METDelivered PAT ₹85.1 Cr (+28.8% YoY), EPS growth math precise
EBITDA ₹164 Cr with 32.7% YoY growth at 12% margin despite alloy pass-through
METOPM 11.8% (₹160 Cr) aligns; 100% customer pass-through confirmed, margin compression temporary
Alloy price impact 33% of revenue, actual net growth 25.3% excluding alloy & wheel assembly
METCalculation: 52.1% - 33.4% alloy - 6.6% wheel assembly ≈ 12.1% organic, closer to organic organic growth ~25% credible
Guidance met mid-teens expectation; now revising to high-teens for FY27
METPrior guidance was mid-teens for FY27; Q1 delivery of 52% growth and revised high-teens guidance are upgrade
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Revenue guidance upgraded
UpgradeMid-teens → high-teens for FY27. Driven by new orders received (alloy ₹70-90 Cr FY27, Ford ₹40-45 Cr FY27, sunroof cables), not base assumption change.
Capex guidance revised up
Upgrade₹450-500 Cr → ₹700 Cr for FY27. Due to urgent new South plant setup for unnamed customer orders (war footing, pre-March operationalization).
Alloy wheel order book confirmed
New₹70-90 Cr FY27, ₹250 Cr FY28 from Kyushu Japan collaboration (1st high-pressure die-cast alloy wheel supply already started).
Margin recovery timeline
UpgradeManagement now expects 13.5-14% EBITDA margins achievable (vs prior 'sustain current' guidance). Recovery dependent on aluminum normalization and geopolitical clarity.
Workforce expansion
Upgrade7000 → 9000+ employees (2000 added at Karoli & Bangalore); Karoli alone recruited 1500+. Will exceed 10,000 by next year per guidance.
The Q&A
Analysts probed 300 bps gross margin contraction (Joseph George), pass-through lag risk (Ronak Mehta), and capex funding (Vinit Agarwal). Management held firm on absolute EBITDA growth, clarified 100% pass-through fully received with no pending lag, and explained commodity volatility creates percentage dilution only. No heated debate; questions were collaborative and technical, not adversarial.
Alloy impact segmentation — Raghunandhan, Nuvama Research
AnsweredIf ABS up 48%, then alloy impact approximately 28%. Not calculated separately, will provide separately.
New order pipeline & guidance — Raghunandhan, Nuvama Research
AnsweredAlloy wheels ₹70-90 Cr FY27, ₹250 Cr FY28. Ford ₹40-45 Cr FY27, ₹60 Cr FY28. Unnamed new customer requires South plant setup urgently.
Capacity utilization & capex — Raghunandhan, Nuvama Research
AnsweredBangalore near-optimum. Karoli at 75% (up from 60-65%), expect 80% Q4. Capex revised to ₹700 Cr from ₹450-500 Cr due to new orders and South plant war footing.
JV profitability & ramp — Ronak Mehta, ICICI Securities
PartialAISIN ramping up, expecting profitability by year-end but not significant (mainly trading). Detailed FY28 guidance at Q4 call.
Commodity pass-through lag — Ronak Mehta, ICICI Securities
AnsweredNo lag pending. Everything received. Esteemed customers have passed it on completely.
Margin math validation — Joseph George, IIFL
AnsweredMath is right but opening inventory may be in revenue. 15% not sustainable in industry; margins 13.5-14% range normal.
Capex funding mechanism — Vinit Agarwal, Bajaj Alternates
AnsweredInternal accruals sufficient for high mid-teen growth, but for cash management will take external financing (term loans for machines).
New orders EV vs ICE split — Mrunmayee Jogalekar, Asit C Mehta
AnsweredBroad-based ICE and EV. EV substantial, especially in ALPS segment where 75% growth achieved.
Taiwanese alloy wheel partner — Mrunmayee Jogalekar, Asit C Mehta
AnsweredUnder final testing. Confident will pass. One collaboration (Kyushu) fructified one quarter early vs H2 guidance.
Sunroof cables business — Mrunmayee Jogalekar, Asit C Mehta
AnsweredGoing as per plan. Received very good orders. Initial supplies H2, substantial growth FY28.
Solar energy cost savings — Vaibhav Mehta, Axis Mutual Fund
PartialCannot quantify exactly. Payback on investment estimated at 5-5.5 years (5 years if more sun, 6 if cloudy).
FY27 H2 growth expectation — Naveen Kumar Dubey, Narnolia
AnsweredHigh-teens growth expected. Revised forecast; industry still growing at 6.7% GDP backdrop; GST 2.0, rate cuts, monsoon recovery support demand.
Gross margin recovery timeline — Naveen Kumar Dubey, Narnolia
AnsweredYes, will come. Aluminum down from ₹365 by 10%+ already. Depends on geopolitical situation (Hormuz clarity critical).
Workforce expansion details — Naveen Kumar Dubey, Narnolia
Answered2000 added at Karoli & Bangalore last 2 plants. Karoli alone over 1500 recruited. ₹750 Cr invested in 23-acre Karoli plant. 500 more to be recruited soon. Will exceed 10,000 next year.
Capex and debt implications — Naveen Kumar Dubey, Narnolia
AnsweredYes, will increase. Working capital impact from commodity price increase (aluminum ₹100 price rise impacts WC). Philosophy: plow back all internal accruals. Debt-equity to remain <0.5. Detailed in Q2 results.
Honda customer strategic position — Yash Agarwal, Nirmal Bang
AnsweredMost prestigious, largest customer. Content per vehicle highest, will continue in new models.
Export outlook FY27 — Yash Agarwal, Nirmal Bang
AnsweredGuidance of 20% export growth increase. Missed target last year but confident will achieve this time.
Ford execution and new export wins — Yash Agarwal, Nirmal Bang
DodgedNegotiations with 2-3 players ongoing. Will announce when big export order materializes, not before.
Revenue guidance post alloy ramp — Yash Agarwal, Nirmal Bang
AnsweredRevenue guidance given today will remain same as stated today (no change).
ABS mandate regulatory status — Yash Agarwal, Nirmal Bang
DodgedNothing finalized so far. Only remains a draft. Won't discuss draft things. Will discuss when final comes.
EV vs ICE growth disparity — Yash Agarwal, Nirmal Bang
AnsweredGrowing with all top customers in EV. But one major EV customer not performing last some time, distorting percentage.
Guidance
FY27 high-teens growth (revised from mid-teens)
HighQ1 delivered 52% growth; confirmed order book (alloy ₹70-90 Cr, Ford ₹40-45 Cr, new customer South); 11 consecutive quarters delivered
EBITDA margin 13.5-14% expected (currently 12%)
MediumDependent on aluminum price normalization from ₹365 peak; already down 10%; 100% pass-through ensures upside
FY27 capex ₹700 Cr (revised from ₹450-500 Cr)
HighNew South plant urgent setup pre-March; term loans for machines; internal accruals support; debt-equity <0.5 target
Risks the call surfaced
Commodity Price Volatility
HighAluminum prices peaked at ₹365, creating 33% revenue pass-through but 300 bps margin compression. Normalization critical for margin recovery to 13.5-14%.
Capex Execution Risk
Medium₹700 Cr capex (revised from ₹450-500 Cr) to set up new South/Bangalore plant before March 2027 on war footing. Execution delays could derail H2/FY28 capacity additions.
Customer Concentration & Underperformance
MediumHonda is largest, most prestigious customer with highest content per vehicle. One major EV customer underperforming, distorting segment growth %. AISIN JV (not named) still unprofitable.
Margin Pressure from Wage Inflation
MediumRising wages (8th Pay Commission expected to increase costs) and labor formalization pressuring margins. Managing through customer pass-through, but absolute cost inflation real.
Geopolitical & Macro Uncertainty
MediumHormuz strait disruption could elevate energy/commodity costs. Monsoon/rural income sensitivity, base effect high in H2. Regulatory uncertainty on ABS mandate.
Management
Score 8/10. Clear on metrics, segment performance, and forward guidance. Transparent on challenges (alloy pass-through, margin compression, JV losses). Admitted data gaps (specific ABS alloy impact calculation). Some deflection on confidential new orders and draft regulatory matters. Direct answers to most questions; calculates guidance impact on the fly. 11 consecutive quarters of robust performance delivered. Karoli monthly revenue jumped 83% (₹60 Cr → ₹110 Cr). Solar plants tracking (one operational, second Q2). Multiple product launches (Kyushu alloy wheel 1st supply started, sunroof cables Q2 start). Some execution risk on ₹700 Cr capex and new South plant (war footing)
1 · Q2 FY27
Bikaner solar plant (11.55 MW) commissioned; sunroof cables initial supplies start
2 · H2 FY27
Aluminum prices expected to normalize post ₹365 peak; alloy wheel ramp-up accelerating
3 · Mar 2027
New South (Bangalore) plant operationalized before March for unnamed customer orders
Key risk: margin compression (6.3% NPM) from aluminum volatility and execution risk on new South plant.
Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.