Record growth masks margin compression; new segments untested

Delivered revenue ₹14.4 Cr; call cited ₹16.8 Cr (gap of ₹2.4 Cr)

Implied EBITDA ₹8.45 Cr on ₹14.4 Cr revenue = 58.7% OPM, below 60% prior guidance

Fleet 155-158 machines at full deployment; signed contracts till year-end corroborate

Conservative estimate vs Q1 run-rate; achievable given signed contracts

Announced entry into 900-ton wind crane rental (5–7x market growth until 2030). ₹25–30 Cr per machine; 4-month lead time. No current clients; strategic positioning only.

Announced UAE and Saudi Arabia operations (subject to approvals). Quoted 4% monthly yield vs 2.5% in India; expect 50–52% EBITDA vs 58.7% in India due to higher OpEx. Partnerships with L&T, KEC, Afcon driving demand.

Borrowing cost avg 8.5–8.75% (down from 9.75%). Older high-cost debt being repaid; LTV improved to 50–60%. Debt payoff acceleration expected 2027–28.

First EV machines arriving Q2 FY27 for two clients. 5% cost premium to diesel; zero OpEx (fuel) post-warranty. Diversification for utilization.

Guided ₹100 Cr CapEx FY26, delivered ₹210 Cr (2.1x). Now guided ₹130–140 Cr remaining in FY27 (of ₹400 Cr total) for wind/tower cranes/UAE. Demand exceeds supply; scaling quickly.

155–158 machines currently. Wind segment: 900-ton machines (first mover advantage, units arriving October). Yields similar to current fleet; advantage is higher ticket size (₹25–30 Cr per machine). ₹400 Cr CapEx includes wind; 4–5 machines would complete remaining ₹130 Cr allocation.

FY27 CapEx remains at ₹400 Cr total (₹270 done, ₹130 remaining). UAE/KSA detail roadmap delayed to December call pending customer feedback. Remaining ₹130 Cr will be deployed in India.

₹270 Cr in gross block; 1.5-month lag for new machines to generate revenue (CWIP ₹27–28 Cr). Higher utilization due to new fleet (2024–27 vintage); OEMs cover maintenance 3 years, no OpEx drag. Eventually margins compress to 58–62% after warranty ends. Peer comparison: competitors run 12–15-year-old machines.

Market is huge for all players. Trishakti focuses on specific clients (L&T, KEC, Afcon) with deep commitments (multiple machines per project). No pricing war—supply shortage is the constraint. Even large peers can't meet demand. Entry now is good timing post-war impact (2-year delay in projects).

100% machine financing from HDFC/Axis/ICICI (LTV 50–60%). No upfront cost; only transportation/insurance. Debt started at 9.75%, now 8.5–8.75% avg. Borrowing repaid monthly since 2024. Operating cash flow positive by 2027–28 frees up cash for further expansion.

Core business under 60 days; bulk above 60–90 days is legacy/project-specific. Expects normalization to 60–70 days in FY27 (100% confident). Small chunk from current topline carries the lag.

Q3–Q4 FY27 (5-month lead time from now). Differentiation: market is huge, 900-ton machines just arrived, only 2 global OEMs make them (~4–5 units/month capacity). Entry barrier is scale and OEM capacity, not competition. First-mover advantage strong.

Order book ₹70–72 Cr at 60% EBITDA, 25–30% PAT (conservative). Machines ordered already (70% of ₹130 Cr CapEx placed). Five-month lag to revenue. December call will have full FY28 roadmap (wind, tower crane, data center, UAE).

Q1 run-rate ₹57.6 Cr (annualized); below guidance by ~8%. On track if Q2–Q4 hold current order book (₹70–72 Cr ARR claimed). Achievable but tight.

No update in Q1 call; deferred to December. Implies ~52% growth FY27–FY28; requires wind energy, tower cranes, UAE to ramp (unproven). Very ambitious.

Q1 delivered OPM 58.7% (230 bps miss). On current ₹70–72 Cr ARR, guidance states 60–65% EBITDA, 25–30% PAT (slightly higher than Q1 actual). Achievable if supply ramp doesn't compress pricing.

70% of remaining CapEx already ordered (wind, tower cranes). 5-month delivery timeline means Q3–Q4 FY27 ramp. On track to complete ₹400 Cr by FY27 end.

Wind machines arrive Oct 2026 with 5-month lag; no confirmed clients yet. UAE/KSA paperwork pending; no signed contracts. FY27 revenue assumption depends on rapid ramp.

DPO at 200 days is very high and unsustainable. Management claims normalization to 60–70 days in FY27 (100% confident), but unproven. Risk of slower cash conversion if project delays persist.

Q1 OPM 58.7% missed 60% guidance. After 3-year OEM warranty (2024–27 vintage fleet), OpEx rises to 4–5% of revenue (maintenance CapEx, parts, labor). Margins expected to settle at 58–62%.

Demand driven by government CapEx and EPC company project cycles. Monsoon delays (May–Aug) reduce CapEx activity. Interest rate hikes slow project financing. Reliance/Dholera projects cited; timing assumptions critical.

Currently protected by long OEM lead times (4–5 months) and global capacity constraints (only 4–5 machines/month from 2 OEMs). If capacity increases or new suppliers emerge, Trishakti's first-mover advantage in wind/tower cranes erodes. Peers (Sanghvi) already operate in UAE.