Record India margins, Novelis recovery on track; tariff headwind ahead

Consolidated revenue ₹84,825 Cr, EBITDA ₹13,481 Cr; India upstream EBITDA ₹7,390 Cr, 55% margins delivered

Delivered PAT ₹7,013 Cr, which matches claim exactly; YoY growth of 75.1% confirmed

$516M EBITDA reported, with $47M insurance proceeds and $18M net positive Oswego impact included

Acknowledged as import-driven, expected to persist for several quarters; no specific normalization date given

Explicitly stated on call; no lower guidance given despite $563/ton this quarter

$70M Q1 impact vs $24M last quarter; expected to persist for 2+ quarters. Supply chain reconfiguration ongoing; Oswego restart does not immediately eliminate tariff dependency.

Clarified $250 sustainable for rest of FY27 (vs $300 multi-quarter high), citing elevated MJP. Long-term guidance over $300 maintained, dependent on mix and premiums normalizing.

Described as 'somewhat subdued' in Q1 due to inventory optimization and West India conflict uncertainties. Expect recovery in Q2, but macro headwinds persist.

Contractor-led projects deferred due to price volatility; volume recovery expected Q2 as market normalizes.

Below 4x by end of fiscal (from 4.5x+ trajectory) via both insurance recoveries and working capital release. Consolidated 1.95x healthy, below 2x target.

Royalty capped ₹225 Cr/year for Hindalco and Novelis (12 months). Transition from family stewardship to structured governance; below materiality threshold for Hindalco. BGH (Birla Group Holdings) historically did not charge; now charging both entities.

Included in reported EBITDA. Jump due to increased import dependence (Oswego reconfiguration post-fire); using own network now vs 3rd party. Tariff impact will persist several quarters; Oswego restart does not immediately eliminate it. Not like tariff goes to zero until supply chains fully normalized.

Will be below 4x by fiscal end. Both factors: net debt coming down (insurance recovery $300M so far, expecting $600M total; WC release $300-400M next few quarters) and EBITDA ramping. Not one factor; both moving in right direction.

Targeting USD250 sustainable for rest of year (elevated MJP has helped). Long-term guidance over USD300 remains, as FRP ramps and mix improves. Metal premiums currently high due to Middle East supply gap; will normalize when smelters return.

Don't compare announcements to actual execution. Our capex reflects ground reality (inflation, metal prices, actual orders placed). Others' announcements are not reality yet. Our capex calculated conservatively and we are confident in it.

Block evaluation ongoing (preliminary samples good). Extent and volumes will take more than another year to determine fully. Security of supply for concentrate not an issue; 85% of requirements already blocked in at current LME prices. No urgency for equity in mine.

Cumulative cash impact $1.4B net of recoveries. Final net loss to bear ~$600M. Insurance recovery timing hard to predict (process-driven). Expect steady recoveries; couple hundred million may extend into FY28, but good recovery within FY27.

Expect it to be there for a while at these levels. No clarity on review term today; will check and revert.

Implied from quarterly run rate; no formal FY guidance given. India aluminum demand ~1.5 Mt (+3% YoY). Electrical segment expected to recover Q2. Copper demand softness likely near-term.

Upstream hedging 29% at USD3,004/ton; strong operational leverage. Downstream guidance flagged as metal premium-dependent; FRP ramp to support. Novelis long-term $600/ton unchanged.

Q1 delivered $563/ton with tariff drag; no near-term guidance but long-term $600 reaffirmed via cost reduction ($225M run rate) and Bay Minette ramp-up.

Aditya refinery/smelter 95% orders placed, Dec 2027 commissioning. Chakla coal ~1 Mt FY28, Bandha 0.5 Mt mid-year. Consolidated capex intensity disciplined (vs peer announcements).

USD70 million tariff impact Q1 vs USD24M prior quarter due to import dependence (Oswego fire post-reconfiguration). Management expects to persist for 'next couple of quarters'; exact timeline uncertain. Could impact leverage trajectory if not resolved as expected.

Refined copper demand 'somewhat subdued' in Q1 (359 Kt vs 396 Kt YoY, -9%). West India conflict and inventory optimization cited. TC/RC at historic lows (-26 to -30 cents/lb). Global smelting capacity growing faster than mine supply. China not closing excess capacity.

Downstream aluminum EBITDA per ton at USD303 (record) benefited from elevated MJP (metal premium) due to Middle East smelter outages. Management targets USD250 sustainable near-term (rest of FY27), over USD300 long-term. Risk of margin compression if MJP normalizes faster or Middle East recovery accelerates.

Novelis targeting sub-4x leverage by fiscal end. Dependent on insurance recovery timing ($300M received YTD, $600M total expected) and working capital release ($300-400M next few quarters). India is high capex year, limiting consolidated deleveraging. Any delay in insurance proceeds or demand weakness could stretch timeline.

RBI projects FY27 GDP growth at 6.7% vs 7.7% FY26. Global growth moderating to 3% (IMF). Inflation expected to rise to 5% from 2.1%. Geopolitical risks (Middle East, trade fragmentation) persist. China slowdown to 4.6% from 5%. Electrical segment already saw deferral of contractor projects due to price volatility.