Record order book, margin recovery roadmap credible but Q1 soft

Confirmed; order book composition well-diversified (40% India, 36% US, 24% exports)

Delivered ₹7,931.8 Cr; exact match to guidance

Delivered OPM 18.1% (marginally lower); EBITDA growth rate not separately verifiable but plausible

Confirmed; targeting ₹9,000-10,000 Cr FY27 implies ₹2,250-2,500 Cr average Q2-Q4

But production fell from 4.2 GW last quarter to 3.6 GW this quarter (–14% QoQ). YoY growth narrative masks QoQ decline

Q1 EBITDA ₹1,440 Cr implies ₹5,560-6,260 Cr needed Q2-Q4 (avg ₹1,853-2,087 Cr/Q). Cell production 800 MW→1.5 GW trajectory credible but ambitious

FY27 EBITDA target ₹7,000-7,700 Cr held vs prior call; no numeric upgrade despite record order book. Q1 EBITDA only ₹1,440 Cr suggests H2 needs acceleration.

Retail revenue ₹2,289 Cr this Q, +130% YoY (vs ₹995 Cr prior year). Management now confident on ₹9,000-10,000 Cr FY27 target, unlocking consumer channel.

Export revenue softer; clearance delays cited. Varun noted 6-month market lull due to tariff confusion. Recovery assumed Q2 onwards but not certain.

₹31,500 Cr total capex approved; ₹9,450 Cr deployed (30% of FY27 budget). Cell, inverter, T&D, BESS all live or near-live; but execution risk on timing & ROE remains.

10 GW cell capacity fully equipped, ALMM-II applied. Cell-to-module ratio to jump from 20% to 65%, directly supporting margin recovery thesis from Q3 onwards.

Cell equipment on-site, expected live Q3 FY27. FY28 will see 10 GW cell at full run, module 16-18 GW, EBITDA significantly higher. Exact FY28 numbers not guided.

Four levers: (1) DCR cell production rising (800 MW→1.5 GW); (2) U.S. local production + IRA ($0.07/Wp); (3) exports restarting Aug; (4) non-DCR offtake window opening. By Dec, 10 GW cell goes live, completing India integration.

6-month market lull ended; new supply chains tapped; U.S. local 1.6 GW capacity ramping. U.S. order book 25% of total, will ship from local facility, not export.

Export ≈$0.04-0.05/Wp EBITDA. U.S. local ≈$0.07-0.08/Wp (includes IRA $0.07, less $0.01-0.02 conversion cost as capacity scales). Retail margin not detailed.

Import $0.04-0.045/Wp. Local mfg cost $0.07-0.08/Wp. DCR market price $0.12-0.13/Wp. Clear margin opportunity.

5.15 GWh container live. 3.5 GWh cell + 5.15 GWh pack ramping. Already have 1,500 MWh EPC order. FEOC-compliant cells premium 25-30% vs China. Markets: India utility, retail, U.S./Europe FEOC, Australia NZ.

Board approval for ₹10,000 Cr. Current cash ₹7,000 Cr. Own EBITDA guidance sufficient for capex, but QIP will strengthen balance sheet. Waiting for right market window.

Historical utilization 70-75%; expect same with more cell integration. With cell capacity coming up Q3-Q4, offtake expected to rise to 80-85% utilization.

Two options: file tax return for refund, or sell incentive. Already in discussion with large U.S. players. Can assume cash starting Q3-Q4 on quarterly accrual basis.

Varun: 10-year track record shows 20% CAGR pre-policy. India cost gap only $0.025-0.03/Wp vs China. Policies (ALMM, PLI) are structural (like defence, electronics), not temporary. FY29 onwards entire India DCR; wafer policy June '28. India becomes self-reliant.

Module-only suppliers ≈20-25% margin. Module+cell integrated ≈35-41% margin. No segment-specific guide, but range is clear.

Board approved greenfield. Open to various channels for supply security. Glass is 2nd-largest element in module value. Update expected next quarter on capex + supply chain.

3.5 GWh cell + 5.15 GWh pack+container 95% ready. 1,500 MWh EPC order alone covers full year production. FEOC-compliant cells 25-30% premium. Two markets: India solution + retail; global FEOC cell (Make in India for export).

Q1 retail at run-rate ₹2,289 Cr annualizes to ₹9.2 Cr; franchise network deepening, e-commerce scaling, government rooftop schemes (PM Surya Ghar) tailwinds.

Q1 EBITDA ₹1,440 Cr implies ₹5,560-6,260 Cr Q2-Q4; avg ₹1,853-2,087 Cr/Q needed. Cell ramp (800 MW→1.5 GW), margin lever (+35-41% cell-integrated vs 20-25% module-only) and capacity utilization (50%→75%+) cited as recovery mechanisms; ambitious but achievable if execution flawless.

₹9,450 Cr deployed by Jun 2026. FY27 focus: 2.6 GW module (Waaree Americas), 10 GW cell (India), 20 GVA transformer, 4 GW inverter, 1 GW electrolyzer. Milestone-gated, ROCE-accretive, backed by order visibility.

U.S. export revenue fell sharply Q1; management blamed 6-month tariff-induced lull. Recovery assumed Q2+ but not guaranteed. 25% of order book is U.S. exports; if tariffs widen, margin on $0.04-0.05/Wp exports erodes faster than domestic DCR.

10 GW cell capacity expected online by Dec 2026 (Q3 FY27). This is critical to margin recovery thesis (cell at 35-41% margin vs 20-25% module-only). Any delay pushes inflection into FY28, prolonging margin pressure.

Q1 inventory built ahead of expected H2 dispatch. Non-DCR offtake deferred in Q1 due to ALMM-II facility late-coming (Jun 1). If H2 offtake misses, inventory pile-up and margin compression extend into FY28.

Waaree's FY27 guidance and margin recovery hinge on DCR demand (highest realization tier), ALMM quota compliance, and PLI subsidies (₹1,920 Cr approved). If any withdrawn or significantly watered, revenue visibility and margin erode.

Top 5 customers 27.1% (improved from 33% FY26). Top 10 customers 37.1% (improved from 47%). While improving, significant concentration remains. One large customer offtake deferral (e.g., non-DCR segment in Q1) can ripple.