Record profit, execution solid; silver target tightens
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Buy
confidence 8/10
Grade A
Beat cost guidance by $124-149/ton. Delivered on refined metal production (260 KT, on track for 1.1 MT). Only gap: renewable energy at 22% vs 30-35% target.
Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Optimistic
multi-year
Record quarter with cost beat, strong FCF generation (₹5,253 Cr), and proven execution across debottlenecking and new capacity projects. Multi-year growth pathway secured (250 KT Debari, 35 KT tailings, 600+ KT conceptual). Key risk: silver production only 149 tons (22% of 680-ton FY27 target) requires ~175 tons/quarter average for Q2-Q4, tight in commodity downturn.
₹13747 Cr
Revenue · +76.9% YoY₹5469 Cr
Reported PAT · +144.8% YoYExpanding
Margins · vs guidance: CorroboratedDid the claims hold up?
Highest-ever quarterly revenue ₹13,747 Cr, up 77% YoY
METDelivered ₹13,747 Cr, YoY growth 76.9%
Record net profit ₹5,469 Cr, up 145% YoY
METDelivered ₹5,469 Cr, YoY growth 144.8%
Lowest-ever zinc cost $851/ton excluding royalty since underground transition
METDelivered cost beat guidance of $975-1,000/ton by $124-149/ton due to better grades, higher output, renewable power, by-product realization
Refined metal production 260 KT, up 4% YoY; on track for 1.1 MT FY27
METAchieved 260 KT. Straight-line to 1,040 KT; need only 60 KT additional for 1.1 MT target
Silver production 149 tons in line with lead production
METDelivered 149 tons; only 22% of 680-ton FY27 target. Requires ~175 tons/qtr average for Q2-Q4 to hit target
Renewable energy consumption at 22%; targeting 30-35%
OVERSTATEDAchieved 22%, materially below 30-35% target; gap of 8-13 percentage points
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Refined metal guidance
NeutralMaintained 1.1 MT. Q1 at 260 KT (23.6% of target) on track; management confident Q2-Q4 higher as typical.
Silver production guidance
NeutralMaintained 680 tons. Q1 149 tons (22% of target). Tight: requires ~175 tons/qtr average Q2-Q4 vs historical ~100-150 range. Management cites better grades ahead.
Cost of production
UpgradeGuidance $975-1,000/ton; Q1 delivered $851/ton ($124-149 beat). Drivers: better grades, higher output, renewable power +2pp, by-product realization.
Renewable energy
DowngradeTarget 30-35%; Q1 at 22% (8-13pp gap). Sequential progress but still below goal; no remedial actions outlined.
The Q&A
Analysts pressed on: power cost increase QoQ despite lower output (linkage coal materialization 36% vs 54% prior year; imported coal premium), silver ramp feasibility, fertilizer plant delay to Q1 FY28, REE block timeline (2031-32 is 5+ years). Management held up; direct answers on most, transparent on project delays & commodity sensitivities.
Power & fuel costs — Pallav Agarwal, Antique Stock Broking
AnsweredLinkage coal materialization fell to 36% (from 54% prior year, 64% Q4) due to mine conditions. Imported coal at premium offset RE gains.
Lead concentrate sales — Pallav Agarwal, Antique Stock Broking
AnsweredOne-time sale of old inferior-grade inventory from 1 MT mill stabilization. Won't repeat unless smelter starved. Realized 9 tons silver value + 6 KT metal.
Production guidance — Suman Kumar, PhillipCapital
AnsweredNo revision. 260 KT Q1 extrapolates to 1,040 KT on straight-line. Guidance 1.1 MT only. Q2-Q4 historically higher, Q4 near 280-290 KT.
Silver production — Manav Gogia, Yes Securities
PartialBetter silver grades this quarter. Q1 data: 10-15 tons locked in WIP; plus 9 tons from concentrate = 158-167 tons value extracted. Q2-Q4 higher PPM ore planned; Q4 maximized.
Hedging — Manav Gogia, Yes Securities
Answered48 KT zinc at $3,162/ton; 34 tons silver at $63/oz (carried from prior year, not Q1). No new hedges Q1 due to volatility. Will opportunistically hedge later.
Fertilizer plant timeline — Manav Gogia, Yes Securities
PartialOnly phosphoric acid in Q2 (environmental clearance pending for full plant). Full fertilizer by Q1 FY28. Some sulfuric acid to be converted to phosphoric acid for better realization.
REE/Yttrium block — Anirudh Nagpal, JM Financial
AnsweredJust got G2 level approval. Exploration 2-3 years, mining & metalization 5-6 years. First production expected 2031-32. Yttrium used in red LEDs, medical applications.
Tailings reprocessing plant — Sumangal Nevatia, Kotak Securities
AnsweredConstruction started; 24 months to complete. Expect 30-35 KT zinc output. Ramp-up 6-8 months (only one other like this in Australia).
Capex & hedge losses — Tejas Pradhan, Citigroup
AnsweredHedge losses ₹200 Cr (48 KT zinc at $3,162 vs $3,466 LME avg). Capex guidance $500-600M (growth projects). Q1 spent ₹800 Cr.
Royalty as % revenue — Pinakin, HSBC
AnsweredCorrect. Sulfuric acid (by-product) has no royalty per law (not a mineral). Mineral royalty is % of LME-set price, not revenue in absolute terms.
Guidance
FY27 revenue growth tracked by metal volume & commodity prices
High1.1 MT refined metal target; zinc avg ~$3,400-3,600 range assumed. Q1 ₹13,747 Cr; if maintained/modest growth = ~₹54-56K Cr FY27 possible.
Cost of production $975-1,000/ton zinc (excluding royalty)
HighQ1 achieved $851/ton — $124-149 beat. Benefits: better grades, higher output, +2pp renewable power, by-product realization. Guidance reaffirmed; current trajectory suggests sustained beat if inputs/commodity mix holds.
EBITDA margin 58-60% (estimate based on Q1 59%)
MediumQ1 59% driven by cost beat and commodity tailwinds. FY27 likely 55-60% range dependent on Zn/Ag prices and cost sustainability.
Growth capex FY27: USD500-600 million (₹4,100-4,900 Cr at ₹82/$)
MediumQ1 spent ₹800 Cr (~$97 million). Key projects: Debari 250 KT smelter, tailings 35 KT plant, fertilizer (partial). Board approval for 600+ KT project expected Q3 (further $24-25K Cr capex, 36-month timeline).
Risks the call surfaced
Silver production ramp
HighQ1 149 tons is only 22% of 680-ton FY27 target. Requires ~175 tons/qtr for Q2-Q4 (historically 100-150 range). If grades miss or prices soften, ramp may slip.
Commodity price volatility
HighQ1 benefited from high Zn ($3,466 avg), Ag ($73/oz), and especially sulfuric acid (+200% YoY). Near-term outlook flagged as sensitive to geopolitical uncertainties. Margin compression if prices weaken.
Renewable energy shortfall
MediumQ1 achieved 22% vs 30-35% FY27 target. 8-13pp gap widening. No remedial plan disclosed; may signal infrastructure/grid constraint or lower priority allocation.
Large capex execution (600+ KT project)
High600+ KT integrated zinc & lead smelter still in conceptualization. Board approval expected Q3 FY27. Estimated ₹24-25K Cr capex over 36 months. Execution risk high; tender process ongoing; cost/timeline inflation possible.
Government stake sale speculation
MediumMedia reports on potential government divestment of Hindustan Zinc stake. Management declined to comment. Uncertainty on timing, terms, and post-sale governance/strategy.
Management
Score 8/10. Direct, mostly candid. Addressed SEBI observations on related-party transactions transparently. Hedged on REE timeline (2031-32) and fertilizer delays. One audio clarity issue but re-answered. Lacks granular cost breakdowns on some items. Strong track record: met/beat FY26 guidance, debottlenecking projects delivered, new roaster commissioned, output hit records five consecutive Q1s. Cost beat guidance $975-1,000/ton vs delivered $851/ton. Only minor gap: renewable energy 22% vs 30-35%.
1 · Q2 FY27
Hot acid leaching (Dariba) & phosphoric acid (Chanderiya) expected commissioning
2 · Q3 FY27
Board approval for 600+ KT integrated zinc smelter & lead smelter project (~₹24-25K Cr capex)
3 · Q1 FY28
Full DAP fertilizer plant (Chanderiya) commissioning; phosphoric acid phase by Q2 FY27
Key risk: silver production only 149 tons (22% of 680-ton FY27 target) requires ~175 tons/quarter average for Q2-Q4, tight in commodity downturn.
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