Record revenue, margin collapse—execution risk on recovery claims

₹755.1 Cr revenue is 39% YoY growth, but ₹100–115 Cr from commodity price tailwind

Q1 EBITDA margin 4.6%; backed-out temp costs (~₹23 Cr) imply ~7.7% normalized

Q1 at 4.6%, H2 recovery unproven; customers on 75% monthly settlement, 25% lag remains

Management confirms Q2 will still have air freight, only Q3+ returns to normal sea freight

Aluminum ₹222 to ₹349/kg confirmed; 75% customers on real-time settlement, 25% still lagging

₹3,000 Cr (prior) → ₹3,200–3,250 Cr (new FY27). Based on 54-program ramp and July performance (₹300 Cr).

Claimed 10.25%+ and 12% margin targets; Q1 delivered 4.6% EBITDA. No explicit cut, but credibility hit.

Air freight ₹13 Cr, RM settlement lag ₹10 Cr, total OpEx +₹24 Cr. Management claims temporary but extends into Q2.

75% of customers (by value) now on monthly RM settlement; 25% still lagging. Lag impact dropped from ₹12 Cr (Q4) to ₹3.3 Cr (Q1 standalone).

New program launches with single-source mandate (Toyota, BMW) required supply continuity. Quality correlation issues also required air shipment. One customer agreed to pay ~50% of freight; others under negotiation.

War escalated shipping from 5–7 weeks to 9 weeks post-early-June call. Situation emerged later in June; priority was stabilize supply before announcing impact.

Air freight + sorting ₹12.8 Cr (2.2% of profit). Aluminum +57% YoY (₹222→₹349/kg). Pass-through lag impacts RM % of sales even if price increases are passed on.

₹100–115 Cr (~15% of growth) from commodity tailwind. Organic ~₹200 Cr growth on new program ramp.

Mix of ICE, EV, hybrid. 28 launched, ramping now. Hosur (Sept 2026) for hybrid/EV. Toyota, Ford, BMW—7–8 year program life, high profitability. Approvals in place.

Focused on high-tonnage die-casting (1,000–2,700 ton machines), long-term OEM programs. Improved equipment productivity, redeploy CNC machines. Target ₹4,000 Cr without major new capex; ₹7,500 Cr by 2030 with capacity utilization.

Air freight peaks Q2, ceases Q3. RM settlement lags resolve with monthly settlements. Target Q3 back to 10%+ margins. Confident but no detailed P&L walkthrough provided.

₹32,000/kg (≈USD320/kg or USD3,200/ton). Metal tailwind ₹200–250 Cr impact on FY27 revenue.

Plan to sell 100 machines this year (₹35–40 Cr revenue). Better margins than auto components. Not included in ₹3,250 Cr guidance; upside.

No formal hedging. Customers decide/announce aluminum prices. Focus on eliminating settlement lag; 75% now on monthly settlement. Real-time pricing reduces lag risk.

Q1 ₹755 Cr; Q2 ₹840 Cr; Q3 ₹850 Cr; Q4 ₹900 Cr = ₹3,245 Cr. Based on 54-program ramp, July ₹300 Cr run rate, Hosur Sept start.

Q1 at 4.6%; management claims 10%+ by Q3 if freight normalizes, RM settlements land, labor/gas claims paid. No explicit cut announced.

54 projects under ramp; after completion, stabilize assets. Die investments claimed upfront from customers where possible.

9-week sea transit (vs. 5 weeks normal) forced ₹13 Cr air freight in Q1. Normalization assumed in Q3 but not guaranteed. War escalation or corridor closure prolongs impact.

Aluminum +57% YoY (₹222→₹349/kg). Only 75% of customers (by value) on monthly settlement; 25% still lagging RM increases. ₹10 Cr Q1 impact; ongoing risk if prices spike further.

55 programs in launch phase, 28 launched. Quality correlation issues already surfaced on BMW/Toyota exports (rust due to 9-week sea transit, packing changes required). Single-source commitment means no fallback if ramp stalls.

Promised 10.25%+ EBITDA margin improvements from FY26 (10.25%); Q1 delivered 4.6%. Even net of ₹23 Cr temp costs, normalized margin is 7.7%, not 10%+. Recovery to 12% by FY-end requires sequential margin expansion of ~500 bps, dependent on uncontrolled factors (shipping, customer agreements).

Toyota, Ford, BMW are single-source suppliers for new 54-program pipeline. Loss of one customer or program delay could materially impact FY27–28 revenue/margin trajectory.