Record volume, margin pressure—capex at leverage edge

Net revenue ₹16,678.5 Cr (delivered result) vs ₹16,704 Cr per CFO

Delivered result shows net revenue +42.7% YoY (42.7% ≈ 43%)

Gross EBITDA ₹2,504 Cr reported; validated vs Q2 FY26 baseline

Delivered PAT ₹770.6 Cr; QoQ decline -8.7% confirmed

Q2 sales volume 2.38M tons; H1 production 4.79M tons → H2 target 6M+ achievable

Prior FY27 guidance was $20–25/ton; Q2 actual $12–15/ton beat prior guidance

Commissioned, first batch dispatched, 20,000 tons/day targeting from day one

Delivered leverage 1.51x vs prior 1.71x; barely meets <1.5x target

Q2 beat prior $20–25/ton guidance at $12–15; Q3 forecast $20–25 due to Russia-Iran-US geopolitical spillover into coal supplies.

Flat products now 65–35% (vs 60–40% prior); higher ASP realization on plates & HRC; TMT reduced to 10% from 20% of output.

Full plan ₹47K Cr reaffirmed; FY27 guidance ₹7,500–10,000 Cr on track with ₹3,200 Cr H1 spend; DRI/CGP/gasifier timeline June 2027.

Achieved 1.51x vs prior 1.71x; <1.5x target just met; no leverage hike but debt-to-EBITDA constrained to <1.5x through cycle.

EU 28M-ton steel deficit opening; India supply ramping to Europe; 100K tons/month exports starting; new markets (Africa, Russia post-sanctions shift).

Iron ore internal sourcing 50–55% → targeting 65–70% via Roida, Kasia ramp-up; Kasia 30K tons/day by Q3 subject to govt approval.

Very confident; 4.79M tons H1 achieved on track. 3M/qtr is 960K tons/month. 70-35 mix (65% flats, 35% longs) now standard; margin-accretive vs prior TMT-heavy sales.

No additional cost; water sourcing and pumping station in place. ₹700/ton savings on freight immediate from Q2. Cost is for grinding and pumping; benefit is direct P&L.

Iron ore: 50–55% internal (Kasia, Gare Palma, Utkal). Aiming 65–70%. Coal: 15M ton capacity in Raigarh/Angul; meeting 50–55% of needs; balance from Coal India & Mahanadi, targeting 65–70% internal by end FY27.

Current consumption 31 MLD (sufficient). Brahmani is our lifeline; recycling is 85% at Angul. No shortage. Government is managing dam levels. We help other users via the canal system.

Yes, coking coal $12–14 in Q2 was a gain. Q3 expected $20–25 due to West Asia conflict impact on coal routes. We are hedging via coal gasification (coal syngas subsitutes propane). Availability is not a problem.

20,000 tons/day → ₹700/ton benefit is direct impact. So daily benefit = ₹14 Cr. This is a non-profit, all cost recovery—500 trucks off the road daily, lower fuel consumption, pollution reduction.

Permanent. TMT retail market was low-margin (20% of prior output). We shifted to flats & HRC which command 50–60 bps higher margin. TMT only for major projects now; 120K tons/month for project business.

Q1 HRC ₹54–53K, now ₹60K. TMT Q1 ₹56K, now ₹60K. Spot prices today; consolidated balance sheet makes per-ton disclosure difficult per policy.

New pellet plant by June 2027. Trials in March, commercial ops June. Currently making ~33K tons/day from Barbil + Angul. No shortage of metallics; all consumed in-house. New plant will ease constraints.

Almost ₹1 Lakh Cr revenue component. Surplus power is a miniscule amount relative to total. CFO will follow up on specifics; spot market, so difficult to quantify on a public platform.

DRI plant commissioning June 2027. Equipment imported; some delays due to shipping issues. June is the firm timeline. Next question was on Utkal B2 coal mine—procedure ongoing; I cannot commit a date due to govt clearances. Should come in FY27 ideally.

CGP & DRI getting benefits from govt. Coal gasification is 95% indigenous components. No direct subsidy but govt supports infra projects. Benefits via coal linkage priority; DRI, CGP, gasifiers commissioned by June.

Iron ore: captive gives ₹70/kg advantage due to lower freight (no trucks, direct rail). Coal advantage from mining supply security and better costing (2% SMS cost benefit, per earlier call). Backward integration is key.

Capex ₹47K Cr total; ₹7.5–10K Cr FY27 guidance maintained. ₹3.2K Cr spent H1. Balance ₹8–9K Cr remains for FY27 completion. Leverage at 1.51x; we will manage within <1.5x through prudent allocation and internal accruals.

4.79M tons H1 on track; 6M+ in H2 (targeting 3M/qtr) to achieve ~11M FY27. No change from prior FY27 call guidance.

Plates/HRC command 50-60 bps margin premium over TMT; shift already underway; locked into product strategy.

EU 28M-ton deficit, Africa interest, post-Russia sanctions realignment. First shipments starting now; upside to domestic volume.

Coking coal jump to $20-25/ton (Q3 vs Q2's $12-15) will compress Q3 EBITDA/ton; offset by slurry savings ₹700/ton & flat mix ASP gain.

Not explicitly given; implied from capex narrative. DRI reduces scrap cost, coal gas saves ₹70/kg vs LPG, slurry saves ₹700/ton.

Ashish Kejriwal question dodged; CFO to follow up. Surplus power on spot market; not a material driver per management.

₹3,200 Cr spent H1; ₹8–9K Cr remaining for FY27 completion. On track for annual guidance.

Breakdown: DRI/CGP/gasifier ₹37.5K Cr, other (support infra, utilities) ₹9.5K Cr. Execution risk on timelines (June 2027 target).

H1 OCF ₹3.2K Cr annualizes ~₹6.4K Cr; gap of ₹1–4K Cr to be funded via debt within leverage envelope.

Q2 coking coal $12–15/ton; Q3 forecast $20–25/ton due to geopolitics. Freight (ocean + road) also spiked. No explicit hedging disclosed; exposure is direct.

₹47K Cr capex plan hinges on June 2027 commissioning of DRI, CGP, 3 gasifiers. Equipment delays due to shipping already noted; Utkal B2 coal mine approval pending.

Leverage just meets <1.5x target at 1.51x. ₹47K Cr capex plan and debt refinancing at higher rates (if macro worsens) could breach target; limits M&A or response to market downturns.

Angul mill requires 31 MLD; Brahmani dam (primary source) at 12.5% below normal. Record Q3 volume (3M tons, 6M+ H2) will spike water demand. Drought scenario (failed monsoon) could curtail production.

Kasia iron ore (22K → 30K tons/day ramp) and Roida awaiting govt approvals. Utkal B2 coal mine procedure ongoing; indefinite timeline. Delays will force external sourcing at higher costs, reducing captive advantage.

100K tons/month export ramp (EU + Africa) is unproven. EU deficit may attract competitive bids from Russia, Australia; Africa demand cyclical. Domestic slowdown would redirect to exports, creating pricing pressure.