Revenue beat on prices, volume growth stalls; BESS FY27 target withdrawn

Revenue ₹989.5 Cr (+28.6% YoY); ₹300+ Cr export revenue largely MENA, price-driven not volume-driven (export volumes up single digit %)

EBITDA ~₹99-100 Cr (10% margin on ₹989.5 Cr revenue); growth achieved via price realization up 30%, not volume; management flags ₹2.5-3/ton war premium unsustainable

PAT ₹63.8 Cr, +22.3% YoY; net margin 6.4%, solid; but dependent on export pricing uplift not durable

Q1 volume ₹52,163 MT, only 1% growth YoY; company confident of 231k MT target (60k MT/quarter) but new Bhiwadi facility only 20-25% utilized; structural execution risk evident

BESS business delayed by couple of quarters due to West→East relocation; no FY27 target now; capex ₹200 Cr committed (internal accruals only)

Prior guidance ₹200-250 Cr revenue in FY27; now delayed by couple of quarters due to West→East relocation for better warehousing and government incentives. No revised FY27 BESS number provided.

Prior call implied 13% revenue growth; this call separates: 15% volume growth + price normalization. Q1 actual 1% volume growth shows weakness, but management reaffirms 231k MT FY27 target achievable from H2 ramp.

Prior 11% EBITDA margin guidance for core business; Q1 at 10% due to new capacity dilution. Management clarifies 10-12% range is target; current ₹19.6/ton includes non-repeatable ₹2.5-3/ton war premium; normalized ₹15-17/ton.

Long-term ₹5k Cr ambition with BESS ₹2-2.5k Cr contribution held firm. Management confident despite Q1 volume miss, anchoring on infrastructure cycle and market share gains.

~₹1k tons volume spilled from Q4 to Q1 due to vessel availability & war; value changed due to freight/commodity moves. Export ₹300+ Cr is spot order-driven; unsustainable at current levels once uncertainties ease.

Average 50%+ utilization expected FY27 (currently 20-25%), ramping slowly over period of time.

Very difficult to predict. Conservative target ₹16-17/ton or 10-12% margin. ₹19.6 achieved this quarter may not be sustainable every quarter but could sustain for few more months. Prices have shifted; uncertainty on freight & availability.

Initially supply+mix of EPC (6-8% margins); BOO/BOOT not immediate. EPC adds 2-5%; system integrator adds more. Long-term target 11-15% achievable with better utilization & backward integration. Business shifting West→East, delayed couple of quarters.

Q1 disrupted by uncertainty & price spike in domestic market + export logistics issues. New Bhiwadi capacity will ramp H2; product already approved, no new customer approvals needed. Confident of 231k MT with 60k MT/quarter from Q2 onwards.

Existing customers only; they are expanding (e.g., KEI adding plants). No major new customer wins needed. Product already approved. Key customer base is growing, we grow with them.

Different segments affected differently with time lag. If crude elevated, project costs rise but we don't see demand slowdown yet. Supply-demand and regional balances drive pricing more than crude. India has capacity; we can export to markets with logistics stress.

Our cable customers growing 12-13% in their segments (LV/MV cables). We service those 3 categories; our 15% is 12-13% baseline + 2-3% market share gains. Beyond 220 kV and wires/HVDC/EPC we don't serve yet. Over time will expand.

Reliability, credibility, and PSU vendor status in power industry are hedges. Expertise over time will build moat as we understand customer problems. Backward integration opportunities. Objective to solve customer problems, not just supply.

No antidumping investigation on these products currently. BIS implemented on some raw materials (polymers/PVC resin) but not on compounds yet.

EU FTA direct benefit — we already export to European customers; duty reduction will increase competitiveness. UK indirect benefit — Indian cable companies are targeting UK; if they succeed, we supply them compounds. Direct UK export still nascent.

Prior guidance; reaffirmed. Q1 already at 28.6% due to price uplift; management expects to surpass 13% if prices remain elevated but warns not to count on that. Volume-based guidance is 15% (see below).

Q1 at 10% (first time ₹100 Cr crossed). Management targets ₹16-17/ton or 10-12% range. Current ₹19.6/ton includes ₹2.5-3 war premium deemed temporary; normalized would be lower.

Escalates to 2-5% with EPC, then system integrator adds more; long-term 11-15% target. But FY27 BESS timeline now delayed by couple of quarters; no near-term margin assumption warranted.

Q1 incurred ₹77 Cr already. Includes Bhiwadi completion, HFFR capacity expansion to 20k MT, new Vapi site, and BESS ₹200 Cr (phase 1, internal accruals).

EBITDA per ton at ₹19.6 includes ₹2.5-3/ton unsustainable war premium. When geopolitical stress eases and freight normalizes, margin will compress to ₹15-17/ton. Company explicitly warned this is not repeatable every quarter.

Q1 volume growth only 1% (+52,163 MT) vs 15% FY27 guidance. New Bhiwadi facility (48k MT) operational but only 20-25% utilized. Must reach 50% utilization and add meaningful revenue. If ramp-up stalls or demand is weaker than expected, FY27 guidance will be missed.

Prior FY27 guidance ₹200-250 Cr BESS revenue now explicitly withdrawn and delayed by couple of quarters due to West→East relocation for better warehousing and Bengal government incentives. No revised FY27 number. If Bengal policy doesn't materialize or East infrastructure lags, further delays could occur.

Middle East tensions, Hormuz shipping risk, Iran political uncertainty, and crude/resin price swings are driving current export demand and pricing. If these ease, demand and pricing revert to normal, eliminating Q1 uplift. Management has only 10-20 days of order visibility.

Q1 cash conversion cycle spiked to 55-60 days vs normal range due to March inventory build (higher prices) and elevated receivables. While management expects normalization, raw material price volatility or export demand shifts could re-elongate cycle.