Revenue halted, net loss widens — recovery delayed to H2

Solar/BESS/transmission exec delayed; Q1 revenue -26% YoY, net loss ₹45 Cr

Only ₹8,000 Cr (55%) executable; ₹6,000+ Cr blocked by land, approvals, delays

Q1 standalone EBITDA margin 8.49%; employee cost spiked 5.4%→10.3% of revenue

Q1 showed severe execution breakdown; Q2 revenue only ~₹1,000 Cr expected (vs ₹1,100+ in Q1)

Downgraded to ₹6,000–6,500 Cr; implies -3% to +5% growth, a miss vs prior target

FY27 from ₹7,000 Cr (10–12% growth on FY26 ~₹6,200 Cr) to ₹6,000–6,500 Cr. A miss of ₹500–1,000 Cr.

Q1 received only ₹5,500 Cr of ₹11,000–12,000 Cr annual target (50% of pacing); dependency on Pune-Shirur (₹3,931 Cr) now clear.

Full-year EBITDA margin now 13.5%–14% (vs prior ~14%); Q1 standalone 8.5% vs normal 12–13%.

End-FY27 gross debt now ₹900 Cr (vs ₹1,834 Cr start), but dependent on ₹850 Cr monetization + ₹300+ Cr solar SPV debt release. Both at risk.

Management admits ₹6,000+ Cr (41%) of ₹14,502 Cr unexecutable; land, approvals, and utility shifts pending.

Solar projects hit by transmission RoW delays, cost overruns. Margins expected 15%+ in H2 due to new project ramp and cost normalization. Q2 also weak due to monsoon.

Q2 ~₹1,000 Cr (monsoon impact). Q3–Q4: Pune-Shirur ₹700 Cr, Odisha ₹150 Cr, BESS/transmission ₹600+ Cr, rail ₹2,000+ Cr. Total ₹3,600 Cr H2.

~₹8,000 Cr executable. ₹6,000+ Cr blocked: Pune-Shirur ₹1.5k Cr (AD pending Oct), Odisha, Mirzapur (land issues), transmission. All to start Q3 onwards.

~₹300 Cr from operations. Monetization ₹850 Cr. Both needed to hit ₹900 Cr end-FY27 debt. Dependent on solar debt release and receivables.

Project delays (4+ years) built financial income that is now discounted on monetization exit. AP1 impairment ₹20–25 Cr due to agreed monetization discount.

Q1 temporary. Revenue base too low; costs are fixed. Q3–Q4 with ₹2,000+ Cr revenue, margins will improve to 15%+. Ganga project dragged costs.

Down from prior ₹7,000 Cr target (10–12% growth). Heavily dependent on Q3–Q4 large project ramps (Pune-Shirur, Odisha) with AD pending Oct 2026.

Assumes ₹11,000–12,000 Cr order inflow FY27, large transmission projects, and no further delays. Ambitious given Q1 execution.

Q1 standalone 8.5%; Q2 expected similar. H2 margins 15%+ required, dependent on new project ramp and cost absorption of large contracts.

Management targets 13–15% EPC margin on transmission. BESS and solar expected ~50% pure EBITDA (minimal operating cost) once commissioned.

Infusions tied to project progress milestones. Monetization proceeds (₹850 Cr) expected to fund bulk of commitments.

Q1 saw severe delays across Ganga (96%→100%), Ganga completion, solar RoW, rail block permissions. Management admitted 'unprecedented and largely unexpected' factors. Pattern suggests systemic execution challenges, not one-off.

₹6,000+ Cr (41%) of ₹14,502 Cr order book not executable: Pune-Shirur ₹1,500 Cr (AD pending), Odisha ₹1,500+ Cr (land/approvals), Mirzapur railway ₹440 Cr (land not acquired), transmission projects. Revenue recognition could slip 2+ quarters if ADs delayed further.

Q1 standalone EBITDA margin only 8.5% (vs normal 12–13%) due to low revenue base (₹907 Cr) with fixed costs. Employee cost ratio jumped 5.4% → 10.3% of revenue. Management blamed Ganga, HAM projects dragged at low execution. Full-year margin guidance 13.5–14% requires H2 margin ~15%, a 600+ bp improvement. Unrealistic unless revenue ramps aggressively AND employee costs are absorbed.

Current assets (receivables) overstated; ~₹300 Cr unbilled due to pending COD approvals and unresolved variation claims. Solar SPV debt release (~₹300 Cr) dependent on plant commissioning. Working capital target of 50 days by year-end is optimistic given backlog.

Gross debt ₹1,834 Cr targeted to reduce to ₹900 Cr by year-end. Plan relies on ₹850 Cr monetization + ₹300 Cr solar debt release + ₹300 Cr operational collections. If any pillar delays, debt remains elevated. DLF project at only 3% completion with land constraint; Thane Metro facing challenges. Debt-to-EBITDA still ~4–5x depending on achievement.

FY27 order inflow target ₹11,000–12,000 Cr; only ₹5,500 Cr received in Q1 (50% pacing). NHAI pipeline of 54 projects (₹1.85 lakh Cr) is visible but competitive. Management facing pressure to win large deals. If NHAI/Ministry awards slow, inflow target will be missed.