Soft start masks execution risks; new mining capex to constrain margins

Q1 delivery ₹588 Cr is -4% YoY; FY27 guidance ₹2,200–2,300 Cr implies 10–15% vs FY26's ₹2,000 Cr

Q1 reported 16.4%, but ex-one-off ₹46 Cr gain is only 5.5%; management now guiding 8–9% full year

Outstanding ₹1,450 Cr; government promised 5–6 installments, but MD said 'you have to push' monthly

ED acknowledged monsoon delays; appointed date 'expected' first week of September, not confirmed

Won ₹3,361 Cr mining + 2 HAM projects; pipeline undefined; target maintained but no visibility

Prior 10–11% FY27 guide; now 8–9% full year. Q3–Q4 targeting 11–12%, but Q1–Q2 will be well below prior expectation.

Kusmunda (₹3.36k Cr, 75% KNR share) + earlier Banhardih project; represents strategic diversification away from pure roads, but introduces capex intensity and margin uncertainty.

Mysore–Kushalnagara: 2-month land delay (recently resolved). Kusmunda: monsoon delay (Sept start, not confirmed). Banhardih: 8–10 months still to land clearance.

₹1.45k Cr outstanding (45% of order book). Prior call implied automatic payment; now ED admits need for 'full rounds' and monthly follow-up; only ₹400–600 Cr expected FY27.

₹8,000–10,000 Cr target maintained; won ₹3.36k Cr mining + 2 HAM projects. Pipeline visibility limited; no material new NHAI awards yet in Q1.

FY27 targeting ₹2,200–2,300 Cr (10–15% growth). Margins Q1–Q2 same, Q3–Q4 11–12% EBITDA. FY28 >₹3,000 Cr, 12–13% EBITDA average.

We expect ₹400–600 Cr from installments (5–6 planned); also ₹700 Cr revised estimate pending government approval. First installment signal will determine momentum.

We have to make 'full rounds' and keep pushing. Unless they write the cheque, I won't come back. Government situation is different now from past.

Kusmunda ₹400–450 Cr FY27, ₹500–600 Cr for both mines total capex. Depreciation model uncertain; buyback plans under review due to capex burden.

Estimated 6%-plus PAT at bidding. Equipment model (buyback vs depreciation) will determine actual EBITDA; detailed calculation pending.

₹90 Cr upstream cash surplus from Indus Infra deal in Q1. Excluding that, EBITDA 5.5%.

Land acquisition blocked by local resistance to service roads; NHAI negotiated state acquisition. Recently (2 months) full land released; targeting COD by Dec for 30–40% available land.

Initial bids went bad. Now preparing cautiously. Not confident of winning due to external risks (USD exposure, complexity). No revenue guidance.

Assumes new mining (₹150 Cr), new HAM ramp (Q3 start), Mysore completion (Apr–May), Telangana collection ₹400–600 Cr. Multiple execution risks (monsoon delay, government payment friction, project timelines slipped 2 months).

Mining scaling to ₹400 Cr (Kusmunda full run + Banhardih start), full-year HAM contribution, Telangana recovery. Depends on mining ramp execution and irrigation collection realization.

Prior guide 10–11%. Q1 ex-one-off 5.5%. H1 expected 6–7%, H2 recovery to 11–12% from project ramps. Mining margin profile vague (6%+ PAT, EBITDA dependent on depreciation model not disclosed).

Assumes mining at full run, HAM mature, margin improvement. But mining capex impact and customer concentration risks (Telangana 45% of order) unresolved.

Kusmunda capex phased based on land availability (46 hectares initially, Risdi village acquisition pending). FY27 execution ₹400 Cr assumed; FY28 ₹500–600 Cr. Buyback decision deferred due to capex load.

₹1.45k Cr Telangana irrigation receivables (45% of order book); ₹825 Cr unbilled. Government promised ₹650 Cr in installments, but MD said requires 'full rounds' and monthly follow-up. Only ₹400–600 Cr expected FY27.

Kusmunda appointed date pending (monsoon delays); equipment delivery Nov end; ramp-up slower than ₹150 Cr FY27 guidance. Banhardih (₹3.3k Cr order) still 8–10 months from land clearance. Mining margin profile vague (6%+ PAT, EBITDA 'uncertain due to capex depreciation models').

Q1 ex-one-off EBITDA 5.5% vs prior 10–11% guidance. FY27 full year targeting 8–9% (vs 10–11% prior). Mining capex-heavy; depreciation model uncertain. Management cites H1 soft, H2 strong recovery, but visibility limited.

Mysore–Kushalnagara: 2-month land delay recently resolved; only 30–40% land available, targeting PCOD Dec for partial completion. Full completion April–May 2027 (slipped from earlier timeline). Water pipeline initially had challenges.

WC days jumped from 78 (Mar 26) to 133 (Jun 26); driven by ₹1.45k Cr Telangana irrigation receivables buildup. Impacts cash generation despite maintained revenue guidance.