Strong 35% growth masks margin compression; stabilization expected Q3+
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Hold
confidence 7/10
Grade B
Hit revenue growth guidance (34.6% delivered vs 35% stated). Cable normalization claim unproven; Lloyd turnaround timeline vague.
Cautiously Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Optimistic
multi-year
Havells delivered robust 35% YoY revenue growth at ₹6432 Cr, but OPM compression to 8.9% reflects cable segment margin pressure from aluminium deflation. Management credibly outlined a path to stabilization via pricing (5-7% hikes in Q3+) and expects normalization, but near-term profitability at risk. Capex of ₹14B FY27 targets growth, but Lloyd segment remains unprofitable and competitive wires threats emerging.
₹6432 Cr
Revenue · +34.6% YoY₹349.2 Cr
Reported PAT · +9.7% YoYCompressing
Margins · vs guidance: CorroboratedDid the claims hold up?
Revenue growing 35% year-on-year in strong performance
METDelivered ₹6432 Cr, up 34.6% YoY (₹4775 Cr prior year)
EBITDA growth approximately 30% for the quarter
UnverifiedOPM 8.9%, NPM 5.4%; full EBITDA figure not stated in delivered result
Cable contribution margins ~15% for H1, normalized level
METOverall OPM 8.9% Q2; cable segment margins clearly below long-term due to aluminium price deflation
Lloyd delivering healthy growth supported by volume and value
METLloyd segment grew 28.5% (stated in call); but margin underperformance acknowledged
Switchgear volume growth close to double digits with healthy pricing
METSwitchgear contribution margin normalization to 38-40% range being pursued post Q1 dislocation
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Cable margins outlook: stabilization vs expansion
DowngradeQ1 FY27 call expected margins to stabilize. Q2 delivered further 380-bps compression. Management now targets return to 15% normalized level only in Q3+, pushing full-year margin expansion hopes to FY28.
Lloyd profitability timeline: extended
DowngradeLloyd 28.5% growth held but no profitability timeline given. Management shifted from prior 'build distribution' tone to 'medium-term guidance we'd like to avoid'—implicit admission of near-term margin headwinds persisting.
Capex commitment: reaffirmed at ₹14B FY27
NeutralPrior guidance on capacity expansion for cables, wires, renewables confirmed. Majority on medium/high-voltage cables; expansion on track per management.
Renewables scale-up: margin profile improving
UpgradeManagement emphasized scale-up proceeding 'healthily' with margin visibility. Treating as long-term brand/distribution business, not commodity. Peak revenue target ₹300 Cr quarterly mentioned but early-stage de-risking.
The Q&A
Analysts pressed hard on cable margin recovery timeline, Lloyd profitability, and new wire competition. Management held ground with data (15% normalized cable margins, 38-40% switchgear norms, aluminium price timing). On Lloyd, admitted under-absorption but deferred detailed turnaround timeline ('medium term'), signaling near-term caution.
Switchgear growth & pricing — Natasha Jain, PhillipCapital
AnsweredGrowth healthy, spillover from Q1 present. Switchgear mainly B2C residential (not order-based). Volume growth ~double-digit, pricing actions helping. Margins normalizing from depressed Q1 to 38-40% long-term range.
Lloyd segment performance — Natasha Jain, PhillipCapital
AnsweredVolume growth more substantial than pricing. Under-absorption due to off-season manufacturing overhead not passed on; expects Q3+ margin recovery with pricing hikes 5-7% across portfolio.
Renewables long-term potential — Natasha Jain, PhillipCapital
PartialToo early to quantify peak volumes/margins. Treating as brand & distribution business, not commodity. ₹300 Cr quarterly target mentioned but focusing on margin building, not scale-at-any-cost.
Wires competition response — Sameer Gupta, IIFL Capital
AnsweredNew entrants using brand-channel strategy, not technology/factory. Market consolidation from unorganized sector. Established players with deeper distribution and influencer management can protect. Industry-leading growth early in wires cycle.
Cable margin recovery roadmap — Pavan Kumar, Global Consilient Research
AnsweredAluminium price decline root cause. Normal contribution 15%, h1 achieved that level. Pricing actions in Q2 and Q3+ to offset inflation. Margin recovery tied to commodity stabilization and channel absorption.
Lloyd turnaround and capex returns — Pavan Kumar, Global Consilient Research
PartialBuilding brand and distribution (ongoing 6-9 month reset). Medium-term focus on annual profitability. ROCE 23% currently; expects improvement as capex matures. Won't give specific timeline to avoid overcommitment.
Cable segment capex allocation — Sonali, Jefferies India
Answered₹14B FY27 capex reaffirmed, mostly cables & wires C&W and R&D. Medium/high voltage and underground cable expansion on track. Most capex on MV and HV; LV capacity adequate.
Lloyd refrigerator factory ramp — Umang Mehta, Kotak Securities
AnsweredFactory not yet fully on steam. RAC ~75% of business, targeting non-RAC to 60% long-term. Growth decent from new capacity; season will help. Expect pickup as factory scales next year.
ROCE and incremental returns — Rahul Agarwal, Ikigai Asset
PartialCurrently ~23%, comfortable with this given expansion underway. Incremental business achieving decent ROCE from existing categories. New categories take time. Returns will improve as leverage increases and margins improve.
Guidance
No specific FY27 revenue target; maintain resilient growth momentum throughout year (Q1 call)
LowManagement avoiding specific guidance. 35% Q2 growth suggests strength but acknowledge macro uncertainties and commodity volatility
Margins to stabilize in coming quarters after Q2 compression; normalization expected Q3 onwards
MediumCable margins target return to 15% normalized via pricing (5-7% hikes), commodity stabilization. Lloyd under-absorption to ease post distribution reset.
Switchgear margins normalizing to 38-40% range; moving away from depressed Q1 levels
MediumAluminium volatility moderating; pricing actions gaining market acceptance
FY27 capex ₹14 billion for cables, wires C&W and R&D; on track
HighMost capex directed to MV/HV cables and underground cables. R&D centres in Delhi, Bangalore operational. Expansion phased through FY27-28+
Risks the call surfaced
Commodity input inflation (cables)
HighCable segment (major contributor) saw 380-bps contribution margin decline YoY due to aluminium deflation lag. If inflation resumes or deflation stalls, pricing actions may not stick.
Lloyd segment profitability
HighLloyd grew 28.5% in revenue but profitability lags due to under-absorption (off-season manufacturing overhead). Management gave vague 'medium-term' turnaround guidance without specific milestones or ROI visibility.
New competition in wires segment
MediumCrompton and Ultravolt recently entered wires segment using brand-channel strategy. While management sees them as traders (not technology/factory players), they could disrupt established channel economics and pricing discipline.
Macro headwinds and commodity volatility
MediumManagement cited 'macroeconomic uncertainties persist and commodity prices remain elevated' in opening. Q2 seasonal dip also noted. Pricing hikes in Q3+ may face consumer resistance if demand cools.
Distribution model transition risk
MediumManagement is transitioning Lloyd and Havells from push-led (product into channel) to pull-led (consumer-driven demand). This 6-9 month reset could cause temporary inventory pressure and margin headwinds if execution falters.
Management
Score 7/10. Clear and data-backed. Anil Rai Gupta provided specific numbers (cable margins 15%, switchgear 38-40%, Lloyd 28.5% growth) and honest attribution of challenges (aluminium deflation, under-absorption). Avoided vague deflection; acknowledged long timelines openly. Mixed track record. Hit 35% revenue growth target (34.6% delivered). Cable margin stabilization claim pending (still compressed 8.9% OPM). Lloyd profitability delayed beyond prior expectations. Capex on track. Overall, execution on growth but lagging on profitability normalization.
1 · Q3 FY27 (Oct-Dec 2026)
Festive season demand; pricing actions (5-7% hikes) to gain traction; cable margin normalization expected
2 · Q4 FY27 (Jan-Mar 2027)
Lloyd refrigerator factory fully ramped (commissioned March, not yet steam); non-RAC product ramp targeting 60% mix
3 · FY28 onwards
₹14B capex (cable, wires, R&D) completion and capacity utilization driving ROCE expansion toward 25%+
Capex of ₹14B FY27 targets growth, but Lloyd segment remains unprofitable and competitive wires threats emerging.
Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.