Strong copper ramp, but lead supply headwinds cap near-term

Delivered revenue ₹934.9 Cr (+55.1% YoY)

Delivered PAT ₹35.9 Cr (+42.6% YoY)

Q1 copper ~4,000 MT; FY guidance 12,000 MT at 75% utilization

At 85% value-added mix; guided sustainable ₹18-20K/MT

Q1 contribution not separately quantified; trajectory on track

Prior guidance ₹35,000-₹40,000 → now >₹40,000 per MT. Driven by efficiency gains from 6K MT recent ramp-up and operational leverage. Modest but material 1-2% upside.

Deliberately deprioritized lead volume to maximize value-added margin. Q1 FY26 volume ~33K MT → Q1 FY27 ~25K MT. Management framed as strategic, but 25% decline vs competitor -10% shows vulnerability.

₹25 Cr spent Q1, remaining ₹175 Cr capex guidance reaffirmed. Phase 1 trial Dec 2026 (not Sep as analyst thought). No cost overrun flagged. Blended EBITDA/MT ₹60-65K assumed.

Target 2030 (20%+ CAGR, 8%+ EBITDA margins, 60%+ value-added) not revised up despite strong Q1 delivery and copper momentum. Management stayed disciplined, no over-commitment.

Supply chain issues constrained Q1; we remain confident to close numbers committed last quarter. Will depend on how supply chain pans out over next 1-2 months.

Locational advantage. Copper importing from multiple geographies; lead already at high volumes so differential less visible. Copper just started, showing multifold growth.

Mainly fuel prices and additives price spikes in last 3 months. Logistics is small part of increase.

At 85% mix, range ₹19-21K/MT. As volumes increase, sustained level will be ₹18-20K/MT. That is our sustainable target.

₹25 Cr spent; trial production Dec 2026, not Sep. Machine installations start Sep-end; trial production Dec. On track.

With 6K MT capacity addition, got efficiencies and better selling pricing. Should do above ₹40,000 per MT going forward, driven by efficiencies and operational scale.

We requested customers take basic pure lead from elsewhere; value-added products are supplier-specific. Pure lead volume dropped; we prioritized value-added. Volume held, mix shifted.

Most copper sourcing on imports but diversified. Also looking at 25-30% domestic sourcing going forward. Sourcing model must be dynamic, quickly switch between domestic and imports.

Already working on SE Asia and domestic sourcing. Specific shipping routes will be avoided; sailing time longer, maybe small pricing impact. Will find balance in due course; won't be perennial.

No. Payment cycle at ~1 week before material arrival at port. No impact to working capital cycle. Currently at 46 days vs 53 days earlier.

Blended guidance on cathode ₹60-65K/MT. 80% recycled material (~8-9K MT) used captive in cathode; 20% sold external >₹40K/MT. Balance sourced externally. Blended = ₹60-65K cathode, >₹40K recycling sold.

April good & consistent on higher side. May-June lower due to shipping issues increasing. Will provide exact monthly numbers follow-up.

Won't comment specifically on competitor. Our reasons for lower volumes already given (supply chain).

No. In absolute quantum, margin much higher. Per ton copper cathode ₹65K vs lead ₹20-21K. Percentage might be slightly lower but absolute ₹ much higher.

Blended 8% by 2030 is our target, but confident we'll achieve much before that.

Still monitoring. LFP chemistry available in India; recovery only 1.5-2%, phosphate not valuable. Evaluating with technical partners. Will announce when convinced on strategy.

Majority imports this Q, so EPR cost minimal. If domestic procurement improves, Q2 could see EPR benefit. Margins compensated through prices.

Q1 ~25K MT at 75% utilization; remaining 3 quarters must avg 1.1L tons to hit target. Supply chain recovery critical.

Q1 4K MT at 75% utilization; assumes H2 ramp without major supply disruption or demand shock.

Based on volume ramp and per-ton realization; cathode not live until Dec 2026 trial (Q4).

Concrete cathode capex plan supports, but near-term lead headwinds and scrap tightening are execution risks.

Q1 achieved ₹21.6K at peak 85% mix; normalized 65-70% mix implies ₹18-20K range.

Raised from prior ₹35-40K range; efficiency gains from 6K MT ramp-up supporting.

Assumes 70-80% captive recycled material used; balance imported scrap. Ramp-up risk if sourcing delays occur.

Currently 6% OPM in mix; cathode production with 65K/MT EBITDA/MT will drive blended margin upward substantially.

₹20-25 Cr maintenance; ₹140-150 Cr for cathode plant. Fully self-funded via internal accruals.

₹25 Cr spent Q1; machinery orders finalized; on track for trial runs Q4 FY27.

Full 36K MT capacity by FY28; ~75% utilization expected in FY28.

Hormuz routing delays cited as primary constraint in Q1 (lead volumes -25%). Middle East procurement <5% but shipping via Hormuz affects broader supply. Global scrap supply tightening as countries restrict exports.

Lead sales volumes ~25K MT in Q1 vs ~33K MT in Q1 FY26 (-25% YoY). Management attributes to supply chain, but decline faster than competitor (-10% benchmark), raising demand softness risk. Q1 weak; May-June further weakened.

36K MT copper cathode plant (₹200 Cr) at new site in Tamil Nadu. Phase 1 (18K MT) trial Dec 2026; Phase 2 Q3 FY28. Blended EBITDA/MT guidance ₹60-65K assumes efficiency gains. Any delay in commissioning, scrap sourcing, or ramp will pressure FY27-28 profitability.

Q1 achieved all-time high ₹21.6K EBITDA/MT in lead due to 85% value-added product mix (vs 63% prior year). Management guided sustainable ₹18-20K/MT at normalized 65-70% mix. Implies ₹1.6-3.6K/MT compression ahead. If overall lead volumes remain depressed, this headwind is material.

72K MT TKD lead facility commissioned in prior years running <50% utilization because management prioritized value-added production (which is less volume-intensive). 6K MT copper recycling capacity added Q4 FY26 at 75% utilization. If either facility doesn't ramp further, fixed cost absorption suffers.

Analyst raised concern: global copper scrap supply tightening, countries keeping more scrap domestically. POCL heavily import-dependent (97% lead, bulk of copper). Tightening could force sourcing from alternative suppliers at higher cost or domestic sourcing at uncompetitive pricing.

Vessel delays observed in Q1 (April payment delayed due to May shipment delay). If shipping delays persist or intensify, payment cycles could stretch beyond current 1-week-before-arrival model.