Strong execution, margin pressure, tariff sustainability risk

Revenues ₹832 Cr (107% YoY growth), EBITDA margins up to 84% (power sales) and 11% (services)

PAT ₹55.2 Cr, but NPM only 6.3%; large leakage (₹439 Cr) between ₹494 Cr EBITDA and PAT due to interest/depreciation

400 MW power sales + 100 MW services = 500 MW confirmed; on 1.74 GW trailing 12-month pace

Power sales EBITDA margin now 84%, approaching mid-point of range; on track if operating leverage continues

70% curtailment on Bikaner CTU, 13% of ₹1,870 Cr run-rate = ~₹170 Cr annual loss; impact understated

Prior FY26 call guidance intact; 500 MW in Q1 puts 1 GW needed in 9 months. Execution risk high but organizational capacity (1.74 GW TTM) supports feasibility.

No prior FY28 target. Implies 2.3–2.4x growth from ₹1,290 Cr FY26 EBITDA. Contingent on 1.5 GW completion, ₹4/unit tariff hold, curtailment resolution.

Bikaner CTU 70% curtailment = 13% of run-rate EBITDA (₹170 Cr loss if sustained). Prior call did not disclose. No timeline to resolution.

Operational at ₹3.93, new pipeline at ₹4, suggesting tariff floor holding. Prior FY26 calls noted pricing pressure; stabilization is positive for margin assumptions.

Signed 3 MOUs, 2-hour storage, ₹3–3.5/unit BESS-as-Service tariff assumed. Early-stage venture, <5% capex impact FY27, but signals margin expansion vector.

₹60 lakh/MW capex savings on projects commissioning by 31 Dec 2026. Will accelerate brownfield projects in Maharashtra, Karnataka. Precise MW upside unquantified.

First bay has spare capacity and fungibility across BESS; even if bay 2 slips, 1.5 GW target achievable. Evacuation capacity sufficient.

Signed MOUs with 3 clients; 2 hours storage; ₹3–3.5/unit BESS service tariff; three use cases (solar-only states, peak arbitrage, customer tenders). Not material FY27 capex.

Data center market expanding 5–10 GW in 5 years (30–60 GW RE needed). C&I penetration only 7%, room to grow. 35% hyperscaler share defensible. Market large enough for everyone.

Bikaner CTU is 13% of ₹1,870 Cr run-rate EBITDA (~₹240 Cr), 70% curtailment = ~₹170 Cr annual loss. Impact 8–9% of total EBITDA.

No; TTM basis used historically due to seasonality. If Q1 PLFs stable or improved, we've done well. No quarterly breakout given.

Tariff to us is identical regardless of merchant market; we get assured INR 3.7+ per unit. Customer optionality exists but data center plans drive long-term intent.

15-year focused track record, 600 existing customers (75–80% repeat), 10-state footprint, wind+solar mix. Market is fragmented (85% split among others). Room for all players.

Mix of one-time EPC margin and recurring O&M annuity. Order-book driven (147 MW contracted). 12-month execution cycle. FY28 EBITDA guidance includes both segments.

Steady-state net debt ₹16,000 Cr at ₹3,000 Cr EBITDA (5.3x). Interim debt higher if projects still under construction; will de-lever post-stabilization.

Allocating revenue and cost per accounting standards (KPMG audit). Some expenses difficult to allocate by MW; treated as unallocated per GAAP.

Timeline uncertain; keeps changing. Conservative to assume curtailment continues through FY27. Power Grid and government are engaged.

STU average 13 MW, but data center deals larger (150+ MW seen). CTU hyperscaler deals average 200–250 MW. Currently at VPPA; intent to convert to direct supply post-DC ramp.

Demonstrated 1.75 GW TTM. Upgraded from 500 MW/year 2 years ago. Org machinery proven, but board discussed 5–6 improvement areas; NRC oversight ongoing.

3x contracted capacity growth achieved (1.85 to 6 GW); 4 GW fresh MW added. Could add 4+ GW next 2–3 years. Cannot triple (would be 12 GW, unsignable/unexecutable).

500 MW in Q1; need 1 GW in 9 months. Trailing 12-month pace 1.74 GW supports feasibility, but execution risk (land, supply chain, approvals) remains.

Operational tariff ₹3.93, new pipeline ₹4. Assumes no competitive tariff de-escalation. Sample size 2.5 GW pipeline; small vs. industry. SG&A/revenue compression driving margin accretion.

Current net debt ₹11,809 Cr; will increase further in FY27 as projects under construction. Assumes ₹16 Cr debt post-FY28 asset stabilization and operational EBITDA generation.

Q1 added 500 MW; need 1 GW in 9 months. Land acquisition, supply chain constraints, state-level approvals (Tamil Nadu had 1–2 month flux per call) could slip timeline.

Bikaner CTU (13% of run-rate EBITDA) faces 70% curtailment; represents ₹170 Cr annual EBITDA loss. Timeline to grid reinforcement (PGCIL transmission) unknown. Management conservative: assume curtailment continues full fiscal.

Adani, Reliance, NTPC announced C&I expansion plans. Management claims market is fragmented (14% share even as #1), but tariff competition could compress new contract pricing below ₹4/unit.

Net debt ₹11,809 Cr vs. quarterly EBITDA ₹494 Cr (24x). Path to 5.3x (₹16,000 Cr debt at ₹3,000 Cr EBITDA FY28) assumes flawless execution, asset stabilization, and continued market access for refinancing.

35% of hyperscaler deals (Meta, Apple, Google, Amazon) represent growing but concentrated revenue stream. Currently VPPA (energy attribute purchase); conversion to direct supply depends on hyperscaler data center ramp, which is uncertain.

PAT ₹55 Cr is only 6.3% of ₹832 Cr revenue, despite EBITDA ₹494 Cr (59%). ₹439 Cr leakage between EBITDA and PAT driven by ~₹600–700 Cr annual interest + ₹300+ Cr depreciation. Margin pressure persists until debt deleveraged post-FY28.