Strong growth masks sequential decline; NGC contract now Q2-expected

Delivered ₹1,814.6 Cr revenue, ₹172.8 Cr PAT; 38.5% / 43.8% YoY growth

Order book fell from ₹15,000 Cr; reflects 1,404 Cr draw-down; execution pace accelerating

Q1 shows 38.5% YoY but -14.4% QoQ revenue; -43% QoQ PAT decline contradicts 'upward trend' framing

Prior guidance expected Q1; call now says 'this quarter' (Q2); timing slipped one quarter

Depends on delivering 4 ASSWC + P-17 Alpha + other ships; feasible but not guaranteed without NGC cash flow

Prior guidance expected 'imminent signing in current quarter' (Q1 FY27); now 'this quarter' (Q2 FY27); one quarter slip not explicitly disclosed

Non-defence orders now 25% (₹3.4k Cr) vs historical 2%; commercial diversification progressing (ferries, dredger, MPVs, research vessels)

Navratna status enables ₹4.2k Cr capex (₹200 Cr Kolkata Port Trust revamp, ₹2.2k Cr Raichak greenfield, ₹2k Cr Gujarat PPP); will raise concurrent capacity 28 → 43 platforms

MD explicitly noted Navratna status enables 'expansion autonomy to the hilt'; greenfield/brownfield projects can now proceed with flexibility

Contract delayed, expected Q2 not Q1; revenue starts FY28 via design phase (5-10% of cost), then physical construction 20-25%, steep ramp in systems integration phase.

Yes, technologically competent; prototypes built for unmanned surface vessel (approved) and autonomous underwater platform (tested Tengansu Lake). Participating in Navy NAIC projects, shortlisted for underwater unmanned platform.

₹200 Cr Kolkata Port facilities (18 mo); ₹2.2k Cr Raichak greenfield (3-5 yr); ₹2k Cr Gujarat PPP. Raichak overcomes riverine constraints; Gujarat handles large Aframax/VLGC. Net capacity 28 → 43 platforms.

MR tanker & VLGC via sister shipyard partnerships. VLGC partner includes foreign OEM with proven VLGC capacity (2 of 8 vessels overseas-built precedent). Container ships via partnership with Indian yard having dock/berth infrastructure.

In execution phase; delivered 8 ships last year, naturally revenue/profit increased. Current order book ₹13,596 Cr; P-17 Alpha ₹4.5k Cr left, ASSWC ₹1.8k Cr left (major projects on anvil). Q1 performance will replicate in coming quarters.

Hull (float): 100%. Fight (weapons/systems): ~60%. Move (propulsion engines): 0% (diesel alternators 100%, but marine gas turbines/diesel engines not indigenized; govt initiated programs). Survival (firefighting): 70%. Net 80-85%; 5-10 yr to 100%.

L&T, Adani, Mahindra, Kalyani active in defence. ~17k MSMEs, 1k startups, 675 innovators in defence. GRSE launched GAIT (GRSE Accelerator Innovation Engineering Team); 101 startups participated. HAL, ECIL, Kelton also contributing. Ecosystem striving toward indigenization.

Total ₹13,596 Cr. Shipbuilding 95% (₹12,980 Cr): P-17 Alpha ₹4.5k, ASSWC ₹1.8k, NGOPV ₹3.1k, research vessels ₹1.4k, other ₹1.4k. Non-shipbuilding: repair ₹96 Cr, gun ₹219 Cr, bailey bridge ₹158 Cr, deck machinery ₹58 Cr, diesel engines ₹82 Cr. 74% naval, 25% non-defence.

Q4 FY26 had 3 ship commissions incurring high outfitting/commissioning costs. Q1 had no such occasions, hence lower expense. Normal project cycle variation.

Non-defence exports need no govt approval to friendly nations. Defence exports via G2G. Conscious strategy: domestic non-defence demand now aggregated (~200+ platforms needed); prioritizing India over exports. Will pursue attractive, profitable export opportunities if arise, but domestic opportunities huge.

Yes, engaging with state governments. Executing 13 hybrid ferries for West Bengal (World Bank-funded). Providing largest/fastest fully-electric ferry in country. Will bid RFPs as they come (expected within 1 yr). Leveraging ferry edge.

Controlled by govt department. Waiting for Administrative Ministry & DIPAM directives. Will abide by their instructions.

Contract deployment cyclical per project phase. Q4 had high outfitting for 3 ship deliveries; Q1 lower. Will rise again with upcoming deliveries. Expected pay commission inflation 15-20% range (normal), already factored into projections.

Water metro: ₹200-300 Cr per metro, small platforms; 5 states → ₹1.5k Cr potential, 30-40 platforms. NGD: high-value, no DAC approval yet; expects 1.5-2 yr post-DAC before RFP; doesn't expect NGD RFP until FY29 at earliest (currently FY27). Defence pipeline ₹80k Cr live, ₹60k Cr expected in CY2026.

Dependent on delivering P-17 Alpha (Nov 2026), 4 ASSWC, plus 2 ferries in Sep-Oct. Execution track record strong (8 ships FY26), but sequential volatility suggests lumpy delivery cadence

Margins stable YoY, but QoQ swings (commissioning costs Q4 FY26 vs lower in Q1 FY27) typical of project phase. Expansion capex (₹4.2k Cr) to be funded via operations + potential external debt

DPR final stages (Raichak), environmental clearance obtained (Gujarat); infrastructure build-up to commence 2027 for Raichak; capacity uplift 28 → 43 platforms

P-17 Alpha (₹4.5k Cr) 85% complete, 4 ASSWC (₹1.8k Cr) mostly delivered. Combined 47% of order book; completion within 12-18 months creates revenue cliff unless NGC/tenders signed promptly

Prior guidance expected 'imminent signing' in Q1 FY27; call now expects Q2. ₹33k Cr contract critical for FY28+ visibility. Delay by additional quarter(s) would materially compress medium-term growth

Q1 PAT down 43% QoQ despite 38.5% YoY growth; Q4 FY26 had 3 ship commissions inflating baseline. Commissioning phase high-cost, delivery phase front-loaded revenue. Investors may misread lumpy quarters as execution miss

₹4.2k Cr expansion (Raichak ₹2.2k Cr, Gujarat ₹2k Cr) requires 3-5 years operationalization. Raichak DPR in final stages, infrastructure build-up from 2027. Gujarat environmental clearance obtained. Risk of cost inflation, delay, or capex reallocation if defence orders slip

GRSE bidding MR tanker, VLGC, container ships via partnerships with sister shipyards and foreign OEMs (VLGC). No standalone capability for large commercial platforms. Risk of bid rejections, cost overruns, or technology failure if partners underperform

Propulsion engines (marine gas turbines, diesel engines) still 0% indigenized; only diesel alternators 100%. Govt initiated indigenous marine engine programmes, but timeline uncertain. Delays in indigenous engines could compress defence order margins if import costs rise

₹150k+ Cr defence pipeline depends on govt budget allocation & strategic priorities. Macro slowdown or political priorities shift could compress procurement pace. RFPs could be delayed or reduced in scope