Strong margin recovery masks volume miss and guidance cut

₹705.1 Cr revenue, 5.4% OPM / EBITDA margin delivered

₹20.2 Cr PAT, 167.4% YoY, 2.9% NPM delivered

5,278 tons delivered with 63% value-added confirmed in presentation

Downgraded to 12-15% due to April-May disruption losses

Q1 at 5.43% was abnormally high due to supply shortage; 5-5.5% guidance is sustained

From 15-20% annual growth to 12-15% due to April-May disruption losses. Offset by 30% value growth, but volume target explicitly cut.

Maintained 5-5.5% band, but Q1's 5.43% was abnormally high due to supply shortage advantage. Consensus guidance at ~5% going forward suggests margin compression likely in H2.

Q1 exports 18% of sales (vs historical lower). Manager guiding 12-15% full year, up from initial guidance. Export volume growing faster than prior year trend.

63% of sales value-added, up from 62% prior guidance. On track for 68-69% over 3-4 years. Positioning for higher margins but gradual.

April-May disruption caused volume loss; June recovered with 2,200 tons. Will ramp 12-15% this year; next year may be higher depending on worldwide sourcing.

Shortage advantage is temporary. Core 5-5.5% is sustainable due to value-add mix improvement and customs duty removal from Jan 2025.

~250 tons tin-coated; ~600 tons bus bars to data centers (out of 5,278 total). Cannot isolate data center commodity vs. value-added split.

Supplier's registration cancelled retrospectively for 2022-23 supplies. Case put on us; confident tribunal win. ₹17 Cr deposited; full cash flow impact until resolution.

Not just scrap recycler; we make value-added products. Scaling both simultaneously requires 15% volume target. May exceed, but 12-15% this year is prudent.

Always look at percentage terms as purchases/sales are % of LME. If copper prices up 20%, margin % stays ~5%, but EBITDA per kg rises 20%.

Switchgear & auto highest value addition (double-digit margins); transformers & bus bars lower (single digits). Highest growth in transformers & bus bars.

Sales/purchases hedged daily on exchange. ~85% of inventory hedged; optionality on pricing with suppliers.

Lost volume in April-May first two months; even with June recovery, full-year growth now 12-15%. Offset by 30% value growth.

TAM growing 12-13% CAGR in India. We growing 15%; at 2-2.5x market rate, gaining share. Market growing 6-6.5%, we at double that.

Expected April-June FY28, more likely June 2027. Not for this fiscal year.

Copper prices out of our control. At 15% volume growth, reverse math shows timing depends on copper. Very confident of ₹5,000 Cr by FY30 at any price.

First round ₹52 Cr finalized, money in bank by August. Second tranche ~March 2027, post-demerger, in standalone copper unit.

Data center demand just started. Whether X or X/2, no major issue. Not dependent on data centers for all growth.

FY30 is conservative estimate. How much beyond ₹5,000 Cr by FY30 cannot predict. Volume growth 12-15% this year, 15% onwards; value growth 30% this year.

Conservatively 5%; hope to reach 5.4-5.5% by 2030. But competitive pressures will persist. Projecting only 5-5.5% through 2030, slow rise from 5%.

Yes, inclusive. Plastic recycling doesn't add much to top line (estimated ~₹50 Cr) but high margin (30-50%) because received free with cable.

Inquiry is on Bhagyanagar Properties Limited (separate entity), not BIL. All inquiries closed. BIL holds 3 industrial land parcels from government; no issues.

Scaling commodity easier than value-add. Took 35 years to build. IP in every factory. Not easy for others to replicate quickly.

18% is total export. Majority is commodity exports; value-added export breakup relatively small. Corrected: not 18% value-add, major is commodity.

Value-add portfolio substantially improved vs. 2 years ago. Customs duty removed Jan 2025. These structural improvements support margin resilience.

Not slowing commodity; growing value-add sales faster. Have 20 products across 3 categories; can switch flexibly. Competitors have narrower range, less pricing flexibility.

Real estate parcels separate; valuation today given only for copper business. Future real estate value = total value unlocking. Titanmet gets copper infrastructure.

Joined 3 years ago; philosophy = expand product portfolio with value-add. Led transformer product launch (visited Europe, China for benchmarking). Becoming face of company for investor relations.

CTC/enamelled wires in transformer portfolio. >50 customers mainly in Chennai. Main: Crompton Greaves, Atlanta, TMC. Recently added 48-conductor line (was 28-conductor).

We are green copper supplier (solar power in factory). No real market traction in green tag yet. EPR coming 1-2 years; will be tailwind but not game-changing.

MCX margin requirement depends on copper price. If price doubles, yes, need funds for MCX margin. If prices flat, no additional funds needed. Contingent on copper price.

Management confident on value growth driven by 30% higher average price, value-add mix shift (63%→68-69%), and new product contribution.

Long-term aspirational target; consistent with prior guidance. Volume growth 15% + margin stability assumed.

Q1 achieved 5.43% due to supply shortage (temporary boost). H2 normalizing to 5-5.5% guidance. Customs duty removal (Jan 2025) supports margin floor.

Gradual improvement via value-add mix and plastic recycling; but competitive pressures anticipated. Conservative as 5% base, 5.5% upside.

Funding via internal cash generation + ₹150 Cr fundraise. Capex includes 10,000 MT expansion (35k→45k MT), machinery for value-add products.

Data centers transitioning 48V to 800V DC architecture could reduce copper bus bar demand by ~50%. Company supplying ~600 tons annually to data centers; this segment is growth driver.

₹17 Cr GST input credit reversal for 2022-23 supplies from supplier whose registration was cancelled retrospectively. Case now with company; management confident of tribunal win but outcome uncertain.

Q1 volume down 6.5% YoY to 5,278 tons despite 45% revenue growth (pricing-driven). FY27 volume guidance cut from 15-20% to 12-15%. If H2 disruptions persist or customer demand softens, could miss even 12-15% target.

37% of sales are commodity recycled copper; sales/purchases linked to LME. If copper prices fall significantly, absolute EBITDA per kg falls despite stable margin %. At $10k copper (prior levels), margins were 2.5-3%; company now guiding 5-5.5% due to value-add portfolio. Risk if historical pricing scenario repeats.

₹40 Cr capex planned over FY27-28 to expand from 35k to 45k MT. If delays occur, revenue growth targets miss. Debt projected at ₹300-350 Cr by FY30; if capex exceeds or working capital needs spike, debt could rise higher.