Strong pipeline masks flat revenue & PAT miss

₹5,277 Cr capitalization Q1 = 14.3% annualized, on track but lumpy

Consolidated transmission charges ₹10,905 Cr (up 3% QoQ from ₹10,620 Cr), but YoY revenue growth only +2.7%

PAT ₹3,598.4 Cr YoY -0.9%, QoQ -20.9%; without drag, management claims PAT would be +₹247 Cr

Billing ₹10,963 Cr, realization 104% (₹11,404 Cr); working capital improvement noted

Confirmed in presentation; key growth driver but PAT contribution unclear (analysts flagged disclosure gap)

Prior year Q1 ₹230 Cr regulatory interest (SBI MCLR+150bps during tariff petition delays) now zero as CERC orders issued. Timing-driven, not operational.

₹330 Cr depreciation drag in Q1 as 2014-16 capex completes 12-year tariff amortization. Management expects ongoing pressure; no prior disclosure of this magnitude.

₹5,277 Cr Q1 (14% of ₹30,000 Cr FY27 target) on track; slightly ahead of last year's ₹3,700 Cr Q1 despite execution delays from ROW/land compensation.

Operational TBCB equity ₹9,965 Cr (up 113% YoY from ₹4,671 Cr) as projects move from construction to operation, but profitability impact opaque.

FY27 capex ₹37,000 Cr, capitalization ₹30,000 Cr unchanged. Prior guidance FY28 to exceed ₹40,000 Cr capex; no update on FY28 this call.

Certain write-backs (KSK Mahanadi ₹33 Cr) and interest differential timing not available this quarter. Regulatory drag is structural for 12-year asset amortization, not a temporary miss.

Acknowledged concern. 'We will examine' better disclosures via analyst meetings; per regulator requirements, already disclosed. Will work on transparency.

More capacity & Chinese OEM approvals will reduce prices and timelines. Raw material costs remain headwind but trajectory improving. Hope to see much better progress in months to come.

One HVDC in pipeline, traction for another by FY27. BESS and HVDC are complementary, not substitutes. PGCIL filed BESS petitions post RPC clearance (July 2026); awaiting regulator and stakeholder position.

Transmission systems are lumpy based on ROW/construction timelines. Koppal, Gadag, Bidar-Maheshwaram completing; expect momentum to improve as year progresses.

Correct. TBCB projects under lease receivable method; depreciation does not appear, only amortization. PAT impact neutral vs PPE method.

Tariff is ₹/annum, not ₹/MWh—not linked to power flow. Revenue starts accruing on commission. RTM projects awaiting DOCO clearance (₹300 Cr revenue pending); TBCB deemed DOCO after specified period.

All projects in pipeline. Existing asset extensions via RTM (NCT routes) or sometimes via bidding route (combination). No specific rule; case-by-case basis.

Requires diplomatic bridging beyond technical capability. Telecom is already globally integrated. Eventually inevitable but timeline TBD; depends on inter-country relations.

Bids submitted; under bid process coordinator evaluation. Next steps and eRA (electronic reverse auction) date TBD, known 1 day before announcement.

Management reaffirmed capex guidance but did not provide revenue CAGR or PAT targets; relies on regulatory tariff mechanism (not negotiated rates).

Regulatory regime constrains margin expansion; depreciation drag and tariff delays create volatility. No improvement trajectory flagged.

Q1 achieved ₹5,277 Cr capitalization (~14% of ₹30k annual target); Koppal, Gadag, Bidar-Maheshwaram projects on par for completion.

As legacy RTM capex (2014-16) exits 12-year tariff amortization, depreciation drag accelerates. ₹330 Cr visible in Q1; expected to worsen through late FY27-FY28.

TBCB equity in operational projects doubled to ₹9,965 Cr but consolidated P&L/PAT contribution not disclosed. Analysts cannot assess project-level returns or profitability trends.

New land compensation guidelines (MRC rates) by Ministry not fully incorporated into cost estimates or timelines. ROW challenges cited as ongoing; timelines revised from 18 months to 26-30 months.

Transformer and GIS capacity constraints easing with Chinese OEM entry and domestic capacity ramps, but raw material (steel, copper) inflation remains. Cost escalation risk on ₹7.9L Cr pipeline.

Revenue +2.7% YoY, PAT -0.9% YoY despite ₹28,000 Cr capex last year. Regulatory drag explains near-term, but lack of visible PAT inflection worrying as TBCB doubles but remains opaque.