Strong pricing masks thin cores; copper bet guidance withdrawn

Delivered 312.4 Cr, YoY +54.5% — essentially matches

Delivered PAT 290.7 Cr; call reports 270 Cr. ₹20 Cr variance (7%)

Standalone reveals strong pass-through of H-Acid +100%, Vinyl Sulphone +70-80%

Explicitly withdrawn; MD stated 'doesn't hold'. Now FY29-30 for major revenue

1M of 1.5M tons needed; admittedly 'only a window'. Contracts firm Oct 2028 — 1.5 years out

Was INR 20,000–25,000 Cr FY28, now withdrawn; MD: 'doesn't hold'. Reclassified to FY29-30 for majority operational revenue

Only 1 Mt MoU of 1.5 Mt needed; contracts firm 3–4 months prior to requirement (Oct 2028). Visibility still low

H-Acid ₹800–900 vs ₹350–400, Vinyl Sulphone +70–80%. Material margin jumped to 31.9% vs 23.5% YoY

Q1 profit ₹21 Cr (+30% QoQ), up from prior quarter; EBITDA ₹71 Cr on ₹368 Cr revenue

No dividend declared or planned; capex to be fully retained for growth projects

Company deploying capital for largest greenfield copper–fertilizer project; Board decided to retain capital for growth trajectory. Will revisit dividend if circumstances change.

50%+ debt commitments received; closure expected 'next few months.' TCE deployed as owner's engineer since Nov 2025; overseeing tech transfer, design approvals, detail engineering.

Total capex ~₹12,000 Cr; deployed ₹1,400 Cr so far (all equity). Tube plant June 2027, rod Aug–Sep 2027, refinery Jan 2028. Cash flow will start 2027-28 and ramp across three years.

Long-term contracts typically 2–3 years. Current MoU ~1 Mt, firm contracts in Oct 2028. Visibility will improve Oct 2026 when site progress visible to miners.

First revenue Q2 FY28 (May–Jun 2027, i.e., next FY Q1). Full operational revenue FY29-30.

No, that number doesn't hold. Timelines are dynamically moving. Will update quarterly as revenue projections clarify.

Different products. Kiri supplies raw materials to JV; JV captures finished-goods margin. Combined view shows full value chain. >50% products different; JV has Indigo, advanced chemistries Kiri doesn't.

70% off-take structured. Celsius disputes ongoing (subjudiced). Will not speculate; court to decide. Kiri remains lender, passive player. Project financing offers positive.

Arm's length transactions apply at each entity level. Each level pays applicable tax. Profits accrue where generated.

Depends on when facilities become operational; projections are moving targets. At today's prices, 1 Mt = ₹15,000 Cr revenue; 6% on it yields ₹900 Cr. Downstream markup (LME plus) provides additional margin.

Tube June 2027, rod Aug-Sep 2027, full complex Q1 FY29. Timelines subject to vendor delivery delays (acknowledged as 'dynamically moving').

Prior ₹20,000–25,000 Cr FY28 explicitly withdrawn. New target vague. Dependent on facility ramp-up and raw-material sourcing (1.5 Mt not yet contracted).

Today at 60% utilization, ₹295 Cr standalone revenue. Requires demand lift and pricing to remain at 2x historical. Management notes prices could fall if macro softens.

Current 31.9% driven by favorable pricing differential. 'Sustaining margins dependent on ability to pass through input cost movements' (MD quote)—admits structural risk if pricing power erodes.

No formal update. Analyst challenged feasibility; management deflected with 'LME markup' arguments. Highly dependent on full-capacity operations and market conditions.

Quarterly capex increasing; CapEx to ramp over 2 years. Supporting infrastructure (jetty, power) also being built.

Hope to complete 'next few months.' Moratorium post-drawdown; repayment starts 2029.

Copper tube commissioning slipped to June 2027; rod to Aug-Sep 2027; full complex Q1 FY29. MD acknowledges 'dynamically moving' vendor timelines. Risk: further delays cascade into debt-repayment pressure and opportunity-cost leakage.

Only 1 Mt of 1.5 Mt required has MoU. Contracts firm 3–4 months prior to requirement (Oct 2028 for FY28-29 needs). Visibility poor; no long-term fixed-price contracts. Risk: supply gaps or price shocks during ramp-up.

Celsius (shareholder) litigation ongoing against Kiri's 70% off-take agreement. Matter subjudiced. Risk: court may void off-take, strip project of planned copper-gold feedstock, delay project 1–2 years or make it unviable.

Current H-Acid pricing ₹800–900 (vs ₹350–400 historical = 2x). Vinyl Sulphone +70–80%. These elevated levels are cyclical, tied to Chinese environmental restrictions & China supply tightness. Risk: normalization in next 2–3 years would collapse assumed EBITDA margins and copper project payback assumptions.

Copper project funded via >50% debt (pending closure); equity ₹1,400 Cr committed. Debt repayment begins 2029. Risk: if project delays further or market prices collapse, cash flow insufficient to service debt; refinancing pressure or covenant breach.