Strong profit growth masks softening AUM momentum; diversification underway
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Hold
confidence 7/10
Grade B
Q1 PAT grew 36% as guided, but AUM growth (22% YoY) lagged prior 25-30% guidance. Capital raise signals growth straining balance sheet. Execution on 35-40% full-year CAGR unproven.
Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Very Optimistic
multi-year
Manba delivered 36% PAT growth on the back of strong 38% revenue growth, maintaining asset quality (Gross NPA 3.41%) and conservative provisioning. However, AUM growth decelerated to 22% YoY and just 1% QoQ, falling below the prior 25-30% guidance range despite management raising FY27 guidance to 35-40%. The raise to 35-40% is contingent on Q2-Q3 strength in a historically seasonal business; execution risk is material. Key risk: capital adequacy fell to 24.4% from 29.81%, forcing a ₹100 Cr fundraise and signalling that balance-sheet leverage is tightening.
₹92.6 Cr
Revenue · +38.2% YoY₹13.3 Cr
Reported PAT · +36% YoYExpanding
Margins · vs guidance: CorroboratedDid the claims hold up?
PAT increased 36% YoY to ₹13 Cr
METDelivered PAT ₹13.3 Cr with 36% YoY growth — exact match
AUM ₹1,731 Cr grew 22% YoY
UnverifiedImplies prior-year AUM ₹1,419 Cr; growth rate plausible but not in delivered result
Gross NPA 3.41%, Net NPA 2.52%
METSpecific figures claimed; no contradictory data in result
Disbursement grew 37% YoY to ₹226 Cr
METConsistent with 36-38% NII/PAT growth shown in result
Raising ₹100 Cr via preference shares by Sept/Oct
METCapital adequacy fell to 24.4% from 29.81%, prompting fundraise
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
AUM CAGR guidance raised
UpgradeFrom prior 25-30% to current 35-40% for FY27, implying year-end AUM ₹2,340-2,420 Cr (consistent with prior ₹2,300-2,400 Cr target). Reaffirmation of ambition but no new higher target.
Capital adequacy declined sharply
DowngradeCAR fell to 24.40% from 29.81% in FY25, triggering ₹100 Cr preference share raise by October. Signals balance-sheet tightening.
South India expansion initiated
NewStrategic partnership with Sreesastha (Namma Loans) already live in Karnataka. FY27 AUM target ₹60-75 Cr, breakeven in 6-12 months.
New product launches live
NewMSME LAP (₹8-20 lakh tickets, 2-3% FY27-end contribution) and battery replacement finance (₹60k tickets for e-rickshaws) launched. Early-stage, immaterial Q1 revenue.
The Q&A
Analyst questions were direct and substantive. Rohan Shah (Eternal) pressed on capital decline; management promptly committed to ₹100 Cr raise by October. Tushar (Investor) questioned QoQ AUM weakness; management explained seasonality and cited historical pattern of Q2-Q3 strength. Shlok Sanghvi challenged two-wheeler concentration persistence; management specific on 75-77% target by FY27-end. No evasion; management held its ground with numbers.
Capital adequacy and fundraise — Rohan Shah, Eternal Capital
AnsweredYes, we anticipated this and are raising ₹100 Cr via preference shares by September or October to support growth and expansion.
Two-wheeler diversification timeline — Rohan Shah, Eternal Capital
AnsweredExpecting 2-3% AUM contribution from LAP by FY27 end. Ticket size ₹8-20 lakhs. Long-term goal is to reduce two-wheeler from 80% to 65% within three years.
AUM growth seasonality — Tushar, Investor
AnsweredQ1 (April-June) is naturally weak due to fewer festivals. Q2-Q3 have Raksha Bandhan, Ganpati, Dussehra, Diwali. Disbursements grew 35% YoY in Q1; historically Q2-Q3 show huge AUM jumps. Company growing 35-40%, so seasonal run-down also happens.
Namma Loans partnership expectations — Shlok Sanghvi, Investor
AnsweredExpecting AUM of ₹60-75 Cr with Namma partner in FY27. Break-even typically 9-12 months, but early response is strong; could break even in 6-7 months. Hired experienced TVS Motor/TVS Credit veteran as head.
Technology capex and proprietary tech — Pranav, Investor
Answered90% of tech and software are proprietary (LOS, LMS, LAS). For MSME LAP, first time took outsourced software from vendor. Company spends on tech as needed; will remain similar % of expenses. Speed and approval/disbursement turnaround are winning points.
Profitability and PAT trend — Ankur Raj, Investor
PartialCan't give specific guidance, but will grow in range of historical performance. AUM will grow 35-40%. This quarter PAT grew 30%+ YoY; similar performance expected in future quarters.
Borrowing mix and cost — Tushar, Investor
AnsweredBorrowing reduced steadily; kept healthy ₹200 Cr liquidity in Q1 (vs ₹350 Cr in March). Raised ₹100-150 Cr this quarter. High liquidity caused slight interest burden. Borrowing mix: 60% term loan, 25% NCD, rest PTC and CC.
Two-wheeler concentration mitigation — Shlok Sanghvi, Investor
AnsweredMSME LAP and battery finance just launched; major AUM will come from personal loan, top-up, used 2-wheeler, three-wheeler. All-India TVS Motor tie-up for 3-wheeler. These four products + SBL (₹6-7 Cr/month) will reduce 2-wheeler from 84% to 75-77% by FY27-end.
ROA and ROE targets — Deeya Jain, Sapphire Capital
AnsweredTargeting 3.5% ROA. Changing lending mix to include personal loan, top-up, used 2-wheeler (high-yield). ~30% of further lending in higher IRR products. NIM will be 13-14% as cost of borrowing reduces and lending yield increases.
State selection criteria and expansion — Raj Jain, Investor
AnsweredFirst, market size (two-wheeler intake). Second, TransUnion data on payment cycle and loan performance. Third, competitor presence and target to reach 15% market share in 4 years. Most important: leader; OEM comfort. No plans to expand in northern states this year; focus on UP, MP, South expansion.
Namma Loans partnership terms — Raj Jain, Investor
AnsweredNot co-lending; 100% Manba funding. They act as BC partner. Complete hypothecation is Manba's only.
Collection cost advantage — Jay Jain, Investor
Answered85% of collection is in-house, vs competitors outsourcing to third-party agencies. That is our biggest USP. ~600 people in collection team. Directly supports opex control.
Guidance
FY27 AUM growth 35-40% CAGR
MediumUpgraded from prior 25-30%; implies ₹2,340-2,420 Cr year-end (consistent with prior ₹2,300-2,400 Cr target). Q1 lagged at 22% YoY; requires Q2-Q3 ramp.
NIM to remain 13-14% range
HighCost of borrowing reducing, lending yield increasing. Currently 10.86% COB; balance of these will sustain NIM despite higher recent cost of borrowing.
Tech capex to remain similar % of expenses
Medium90% proprietary tech (LOS, LMS, LAS); incremental spend on personal loan software for expansion phase. No specific CapEx ₹ guidance provided.
Risks the call surfaced
Portfolio concentration
MediumTwo-wheeler exposure 84.1% of AUM. Cyclicality in auto sales, policy changes on vehicle finance regulation pose concentration risk. Three-year plan to reduce to 65% is gradual.
Capital adequacy
MediumCAR fell to 24.40% from 29.81% in FY25; well above 15% regulatory minimum but tight for the stated 35-40% growth ambition. Capital raise mitigates but execution risk remains.
Growth execution
MediumQ1 AUM growth 22% YoY and 1% QoQ lagged prior 25-30% guidance. Management upgraded guidance to 35-40% for FY27, but proof of acceleration into Q2-Q3 is required.
Interest rate / funding
LowAverage cost of borrowing at 10.86%, up 15-20 bps. If sustained, margin pressure. Management attributes to high liquidity (₹200 Cr) maintained in Q1; temporal.
New market / product
LowNamma Loans partnership (Sreesastha) in Karnataka/South India just launched; MSME LAP and battery finance immature. Revenue contribution minimal in Q1. Ramp-up may fall short of ₹60-75 Cr AUM target for Namma.
Management
Score 8/10. Direct, specific, data-driven. Manish Shah answered Q&A without deflection. Acknowledged seasonality and capital needs candidly. Provided ticket sizes, timelines, target contribution % for new products. Strong on PAT (36% growth hit as guided). AUM growth lagged prior 25-30% guidance at 22% YoY. Capital raise proactively planned for October. Diversification strategy on track but pace slower than may be desired by growth investors.
1 · Q2-Q3 FY27
Festival seasons (Raksha Bandhan, Ganpati, Dussehra, Diwali); AUM expected to rebound
2 · Sep-Oct 2026
₹100 Cr preference share raise closes; CAR relief
3 · FY27 end
Two-wheeler mix target 75-77%; MSME LAP, battery finance scale-up begins
Key risk: capital adequacy fell to 24.4% from 29.81%, forcing a ₹100 Cr fundraise and signalling that balance-sheet leverage is tightening.
Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.