Strong YoY, normalized QoQ; macro clouds loom, policy shifts pending

Delivered result: Revenue ₹702 Cr (+88.1% YoY), PAT ₹413.4 Cr (+103.5% YoY), NPM 55%

QoQ revenue -21%, PAT -22%. Q4 was driven by macro geopolitical factors; Q1 shows normalization

Gold options volume +100% (metric tons), silver +2% (metric tons); premium fell 27% due to IV drop

Stated in call, YoY doubling; growth metric valid and positive

No quantified impact yet; deferred to Q2. Early days, magnitude unknown

No numeric targets given; qualified with 'controllables strong but macro uncertain'

FY26 guidance was 'continued momentum with cyclicality'; FY27 repeats same. No raised/cut targets because no prior numeric targets exist.

Q4 saw notional +116%, premium -27%; Q1 continues compression. Management attributes to volatility normalization (IV from ~40% to lower) and client mix towards smaller strikes. Structural risk if volatility stays low.

Bank guarantee requirement effective April 2026; 90-day absorption window now elapsed. Management says manageable but deferred Q2 analysis. Potential volume drag on prop-trading flows.

Challenger exchanges active; some expiry-date changes trying to shift volume. Main contracts held firm but new monitoring posture suggests edge erosion risk.

We don't expect very significant detrimental impact. Impact deferred to Q2. Awaiting watch-and-see. Optimal impact expected as industry adapts.

Predominantly market-driven volatility normalization from Q4 spike. Volume (metric tons) up 100% gold, 2% silver. Participation stable. Contract mix not significant driver.

See headroom in metals; rationalized warehouses, simplified contracts. Copper working well. BULLDEX rework in play. Few plans in pipeline over next months.

Growth QoQ over last quarters; this quarter flat vs last. Last quarter high due to volatility. Underlying trend still positive. Won't give FY27 target.

Not a number we can quantify; varies daily by member prop quantum and margin calls. Multiple instruments used.

Keen but awaiting progress. Will stay with public domain details as they're worked through.

Don't link these. Power contracts launched, picked up well. Coal exchange foundation laid. Indices primary focus; plans in pipeline for next months.

SGF calculated monthly per SEBI methodology; depends on infusion decision. Employee cost: 8-9% one-time in Q1, won't repeat. Mix of hiring plus increments.

Q1 ADT ₹37 Cr, ~55% ADT market share. But 70%+ open interest share. Early phase; all lead indicators positive. Expect to track global multiples long-term.

Q4 had macro factors. Q1 consolidates and moderates. Controllables strong; expect strong numbers but macro uncertain.

Focused on process and service fit; not complicating with revenue objective. Both implicit and explicit revenue will follow. Plans for data services in next couples quarters.

Two pillars: understand commodity market risk (Good Delivery, warehouses, delivery-based integrity) + strong tech moat. Merged physical/derivative pricing gives price integrity.

SEBI has independent senior teams in MRD now focused on commodities. Can't comment on open item timelines; working with focus.

Q4 was heightened one-off; Q1 core trendline continues healthy. Shorter period of extreme volatility in Q4 vs longer but less intense in Q1.

Fundamental growth momentum expected to continue good. Exceptional Q4 holds last year's numbers; this year will be on strong momentum too.

No numeric target; conditional on 'controllables' (ADT, products, participation) being strong. Macro factors (geopolitics, policy) uncertain.

No FY27 margin target. Bullion premium compression risk if volatility stays low; operating leverage strong but competitive/regulatory headwinds possible.

Effective April 2026; absorbed by July. Impact on prop-trading volumes deferred to Q2. Magnitude unquantified. Could reduce leverage-dependent flows.

Bullion options premium/notional ratio fell 68% (1.03% → 0.35%); IV from ~40% post-Q4 spike to normalized levels. If realized volatility stays low, revenue headwind persists. Physical volume still up but not enough to offset premium loss.

Competitor exchanges active in commodities; expiry-date changes and other tactical moves observed. Main contracts held firm; no material volume loss yet but competitive tone rising.

Q4 exceptional driven by geopolitical factors (Ukraine, Middle East implied); Q1 shows normalization. If tail-risk hedging demand normalizes further, energy ADT could compress; ADT is cyclical, not annuity.

Coal exchange 'very early stage'; BULLDEX being reworked; FPI expansion policy-pending and timing uncertain. Multiple initiatives in pipeline but few with concrete launch dates or performance targets.