Transformation narrative vs. weak Q1: 1.8% growth, PAT down 18.7%

Overall revenue grew only 1.8% YoY; income from operations ₹984 Cr vs. total revenue ₹1809.2 Cr

Q1 delivered only 1.8% growth; would need ~20%+ in Q2-Q4 to meet mid-teens

Even like-to-like adjusted PAT (₹63 Cr) is only +13.6% YoY; PAT margin compressed to 2.5%

Like-to-like 48.4%; reported 46% reflects supply chain drag, but underlying strength acknowledged

Industry grew low single-digit; P&A grew 10.7%, Mass Premium 2.3%; volume claim checks out

FY27 mid-teens guidance unchanged despite 1.8% Q1 growth; MD privately tempted to upgrade to high-teens but official guidance holds. Reflects confidence in H2 recovery or hedging against announcement risk

17-18% EBITDA margin by FY28 consistent with prior calls; 300 bps backward integration + 130-140 bps FTA benefits articulated. Q1 delivered 12.2% (adjusted 14.7%); implies 250+ bps expansion needed

Luxury portfolio revenue doubling YoY. 10 brands, 5,500+ premium touchpoints, expanding into Odisha/Telangana. Still unprofitable and immaterial to consolidated results, but trajectory disclosed

Material disclosure: broadly old overdue cleared, but ₹400 Cr remains. Recent supplies on time. No explicit risk flagging beyond statement that government 'responsive to industry issues'

MD expects supply chain pressure 'maximum up to Q2,' with Q3–Q4 bounce-back. Vague timeline; dependent on geopolitical de-escalation (implied reference to Middle East conflict)

10 brands launched FY26, now penetrating; ~5,500 premium outlets, expanding. Revenue ₹40 Cr FY26 to expected ₹80 Cr FY27. Costs not mounting further; 3-year gestation typical for luxury; too early to comment on profitability.

Willing to upgrade guidance to high-teens revenue + 18% EBITDA (from mid-teens base). Dialog with Telangana ongoing; built in guardrails. 80% of states granted price increases in 3 years; very hopeful.

~₹400 crores. Mostly old overdue now paid; recent supplies on time. Government being billed, so payment risk low.

Post-listing cash flow constraints now behind. Officer's Choice Blue getting new packaging/communication (already in UP market). B7 due for brand reset (new look coming H2 FY27). Two large brands in same price bracket as ICONiQ; relaunches will help premium portfolio.

H2 FY27: vodka (15–18M case market, unchallenged leader, high contribution) and premium whisky (uniquely packaged, new concept). Both will see light of day in H2 FY27.

Q1 impacted by industry-wide supply chain headwinds. ABD outperformed: P&A up 11.6% vs industry mid-single digit, overall +6.2% vs industry low single-digit. Q3–Q4 recovery expected; new OC Blue relaunch, ICONiQ momentum, brandy in AP, deluxe vodka, premium whisky launches. With backward integration benefits, margins and volume will deliver mid-teens.

Broadly old overdues cleared; certain overdues still awaiting government clearance; new supplies paid on time.

Telangana in sight after first 2 quarters margin pressure. 1–2 other states possible but too early to disclose.

No disconnect. Mid-teens guidance was prior; MD reviewing upward based on new brand launches, packaging revamps, capex becoming margin-accretive. Official guidance to be formally updated if conditions hold.

Stick to FY26 margin level (~12.2%). ABD Maestro too early stage to disclose revenue; just seeded last year, penetration phase this year.

ICONiQ grew 33.8% Q1, 87.8% FY26; targeting ~15M cases FY27 (from 10.7M FY26, ~10% growth). Alongside other brand launches, volume growth numbers protected.

Headroom in Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh. Just listed in defense CSD channel. 3 meaningful brands in prestige category; other 2 facing challenges (will capitalize). Aiming ICONiQ 10.7M → ~15M cases FY27. Export markets also expanding (10 countries).

Current capex (Maharashtra, Telangana expansions) sufficient for captive utilization at 100%. Next 3 years transformational growth; may require external sourcing if growth exceeds plan. For next 4 years, planned ENA expansion will meet captive needs.

Woodburns, Arthaus (blended malt), YELLO Whisky, Zoya Gin showing excitement. Zoya could be serious contender to luxury gin leader. All brands growing, cautious on aggressive push to avoid discounting. Too small to disclose individual numbers.

Q1 delivered 1.8% growth. Recovery dependent on supply chain normalization (Q2 max), new brand launches (H2), and accelerating ICONiQ. Relaunch of existing brands (OC Blue, B7) critical but unproven

Brand momentum strong; new distribution channels (CSD defense listing), geographic expansion (Karnataka, Telangana, AP), international growth. Management confident; history of execution (87.8% FY26)

Q1 delivered 12.2%; any margin expansion absorption by supply chain costs, ABD Maestro investment, and new brand launches. No guidance of improvement FY27

Underpinned by: backward integration 300 bps benefit by FY28, India-UK FTA 70–80 bps H2 FY27 (130–140 bps full FY28), operating leverage, cost discipline. Requires Telangana price hike (unconfirmed) + supply chain normalization + relaunch success

Current capex cycle (PET, malt, ENA, bottling) across Telangana, Maharashtra, UP, AP; backward integration expected to drive structural margin accretion over medium-term

PET facility (Rangapur) commissioned FY26, now EBITDA accretive. Malt distillery expected H1 FY27; full capex plan (ENA, malt, PET, bottling) across multiple states. Margin levers concrete but dependent on execution & pricing

Telangana government overdue ₹400 Cr; mostly old overdue in process, but new supply payment terms remain uncertain. Material impact on working capital if collection delayed

₹24 Cr supply chain impact in Q1 (2.6% of revenue). Management expects recovery by Q2, but geopolitical risk (Middle East conflict, Ukraine) could extend disruption into H2, undermining margin guidance

ICONiQ White driving 33.8% of P&A growth; non-ICONiQ P&A brands (Officer's Choice Blue, B7, B10) in structural decline (~high-teens CAGR loss). Over-reliance on single brand; relaunch bets unproven. If ICONiQ growth stalls or relaunches fail, overall P&A growth collapses

Mid-to-high teens FY27 revenue guidance vs Q1 actual 1.8% growth requires 20%+ H2 acceleration. Guidance assumes supply chain recovery, successful brand relaunches, Telangana price hike, and continued ICONiQ momentum—multiple bets. If any fails, guidance will be cut, damaging credibility

FY28 EBITDA margin target 17–18% requires 500+ bps expansion from Q1 12.2%. Dependent on backward integration benefit (300 bps, not yet materialized), India-UK FTA (130–140 bps, regulatory/timing risk), and Telangana price increase (uncertain). Any single lever failure jeopardizes target