Strong credit recovery, but deposit growth stalled; guidance at risk
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Hold
confidence 7/10
Grade B
Management reiterated guidance (not upgraded). Q1 PAT 52.3% YoY trails 80%+ full-year target, suggesting seasonal softness (admitted) or guidance under pressure if unsecured book doesn't stabilize faster.
Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Optimistic
multi-year
Q1 delivered solid credit recovery (PAT ₹155 Cr, NIM 7.5%, 0.45% credit cost floor). However, deposit growth missed guidance (flat Q1 vs. 23–25% FY27), and full-year 80%+ PAT growth requires significant Q2–Q4 acceleration. Guarantee program (80% unsecured covered) is structural strength; cost control tailwind is real. Key risk: deposit pricing may not ease soon; cost-income ratio still elevated at 67%.
₹1514.5 Cr
Revenue · +21.1% YoY₹155.2 Cr
Reported PAT · +52.3% YoYExpanding
Margins · vs guidance: MixedDid the claims hold up?
PAT ₹155 Cr, NIM at 7.5%
METPAT ₹155.2 Cr delivered; NIM stated 7.5% in call, unverified in results
Secured loan growth 29%, meets 25–30% guidance
METSecured loan growth 29% stated; within prior guidance band
Unsecured slippages down 20% QoQ to ₹125 Cr
METSlippages: ₹155 Cr to ₹125 Cr = 19% reduction, rounding 20%
FY27 PAT growth 80%+ guidance; Q1 at 52.3% YoY
OVERSTATEDQ1 is 52.3% YoY; to hit 80%+ annualized, Q2–Q4 must average >110% growth
Deposit growth 23–25% FY27 guidance remains intact
MixedQ1 deposit growth flat; April–May pricing pressure conceded; June recovery claimed but unproven
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Guarantee program scale-up
UpgradeNov 2024 decision to put unsecured under guarantee; now 79.8% (~80%) of ₹10.2Cr MFI book covered, reducing credit tail risk meaningfully
Slippage trend reversal confirmed
Upgrade5 consecutive quarters of slippage decline; Q1 slippages ₹125 Cr (down 20% QoQ from ₹155 Cr); management confident trajectory sustainable
Secured loan momentum accelerated
UpgradeQ1 secured loan growth 29% (high end of 25–30% guidance); multiple products (gold +100% YoY at ₹2.7Cr, MSME building, affordable housing, two-wheeler)
Deposit growth forward guidance unchanged but H1 challenged
NeutralQ1 deposit growth flat (missed 23–25% guidance); management explains April–May pricing pressure, June recovery plan, but full-year 23–25% reiterated (execution risk remains)
Cost-of-funds stabilization—upside now over
DowngradeCoF declined 60bps YoY to 7.4%, but management now guides 7.3–7.4% flat for rest of year; NIM expansion from CoF drop is exhausted
Micro LAP intentional slowdown, not stress
NeutralQ1 Micro LAP negative growth; management pivoting model to direct sourcing; expects return to positive Q2 onward (strategic, not forced)
The Q&A
Analysts pressed hard on slippage sustainability (Jai Chauhan), gold price risk (Pranav), deposit pricing (Suraj), merger rumors (Gulshan Singh), CASA momentum (Gulshan Singh). Management held firm: detailed answers on slippage trajectory, LTV/margin call mechanics on gold, deposit pricing outlook, no comment on M&A speculation, CASA guidance to 20% ratio. No evasion; tone confident, transparent on challenges (deposit pressure, cost floor on rate cut).
Slippage sustainability — Jai Chauhan, Trinetra Asset Managers
AnsweredUnsecured slippages down 20% QoQ (₹155 Cr to ₹125 Cr); expecting flat Q2 (due to collection focus in Q1), then small drops Q3/Q4. Collections-heavy now; recovery will improve Q2.
Credit cost outlook — Jai Chauhan, Trinetra Asset Managers
Answered0.45% flat to Q4; expect at minimum 0.45% maintained across remaining quarters. Gross NPA down QoQ/YoY, provisioning flattish to down-ish.
Emerging portfolio stress — Jai Chauhan, Trinetra Asset Managers
AnsweredNothing. Micro LAP slowdown is intentional model shift to direct sourcing. Affordable and MSME doing fine. No Iran/El Nino impact (July 15; collections majority in).
Gold loan growth risk — Pranav, Haitong Securities
AnsweredPortfolio ₹2,678 Cr (100%+ YoY); LTV 64% (within regulatory limit). Daily price feeds, margin calls mitigate. GNPA ~0.5%, fully collateral-covered. Expect 50–75 new branches in 2Q.
MFI growth guidance — Pranav, Haitong Securities
AnsweredQ1: 2.8% QoQ, 18% YoY. Book ₹10.2Cr stable (5 consecutive quarters declining slippages). FY27: 10–12% growth (conservative, not aggressive).
RCB branding & CASA — Harshit, CBA Asset Management
AnsweredCASA grew 7% QoQ, 31% YoY. RCB won championship (fortunate timing); extended advertising till last match, high ROI. First such program; may repeat with RCB.
CGMFU guarantee coverage — Harshit, CBA Asset Management
AnsweredWill claim ₹65 Cr in Q3. Net unsecured NPA ₹214 Cr; ₹196 Cr guaranteed (91% cover), ₹18 Cr uncovered. Timing difference on claims, but largely protected.
Used car business performance — Harshit, CBA Asset Management
AnsweredLaunched Oct 2025; reached ₹45 Cr monthly disbursement in ~50 cities. Potential 240 cities. Consolidating first 50 (70% market). Core financing only, no BT/refinance yet.
Product launches — Harshit, CBA Asset Management
AnsweredCredit Line on UPI: Q2 launch (mass-scale product). Loans against shares: Q2 (RBI approved ₹1 Cr). Nostro: Setup this month. FCNR(B): Maybe Aug/Sept if comfortable.
Portfolio mix & growth drivers — Harshit, CBA Asset Management
AnsweredAdd MSME (strong buildup, 2% Q1 but Q2 expected strong). Affordable continues, two-wheeler continues (TVS tie-up advantage), gold no change. Micro LAP negative Q1, positive Q2. Unsecured growth slower (Q1 weak quarter).
Deposit growth challenge — Suraj, YES Securities
AnsweredFlat due to bulk deposit reduction (-6%); CASA +7.1% QoQ, retail TD +2.3% offset by bulk. April/May pricing pressure; June rates raised. FY27 guidance 23–25% maintained; expecting better H2.
Cost of funds outlook — Suraj, YES Securities
AnsweredDeclined 4–5 quarters; now stabilizing at 7.3–7.4% range. Opportunity to drop is over. Slight rate increases made in June; growth (bulk/retail) will also contribute to stabilization.
Cost-to-income ratio guidance — Suraj, YES Securities
AnsweredCurrently 66.7–67%. Cost grew only 1.6% Q1; nominal growth expected. Will not go below 60%, but will reach 63–65% range for FY27.
Geopolitical & climate risks — Gulshan Singh, Sunidhi Securities
AnsweredNo material impact. Portfolio diversified across geographies. MFI ~27% monitored closely (early warning, stress testing). Well-positioned to respond if conditions deteriorate (underwriting, collection effort).
Merger speculation — Gulshan Singh, Sunidhi Securities
DodgedNo comment on market speculation.
CASA ratio sustainability — Gulshan Singh, Sunidhi Securities
Answered7% every quarter unrealistic. YoY 31%, target CASA ratio ~20% for FY27. Growth will exceed term deposit growth, all efforts underway.
Government deposits recovery — Gulshan Singh, Sunidhi Securities
PartialNot recovered yet. But state government put bank back on empanelment list. Expect flow Q2 (marginal start). Timing/pace uncertain, but positive side: will definitely get flow.
Promoter liquidity impact — Gulshan Singh, Sunidhi Securities
AnsweredNo direct financial/operational impact. No cost default linkage, no liability on bank to pay promoter debt. Bank independently governed, no common directors. Only relationship: 16.95% holding.
Guidance
Gross loan growth 19–21% FY27
HighSecured loan 29% Q1 (high end of historical range); multiple products accelerating (gold, MSME, affordable); unsecured 10–12% conservative target
Deposit growth 23–25% FY27
MediumQ1 flat; April–May pricing pressure conceded. June rate hikes signaled. Management has maintained this rate historically but execution risk evident
NIM steady ~7.5% FY27
MediumRecovered from stress level; CoF now stabilizing (no more drop benefit); NPA slippage benefit may plateau
Cost of funds 7.3–7.4% (flattish)
HighExplicit guidance; 60bps YoY drop exhausted; deposit growth & slight rate increases will stabilize
Branch expansion: 78 net adds (8 new, 30 splits, 40 relocations)
High7 executed Q1; mix designed for operational efficiency (split branches = lower people cost; relocations for better locations)
50–75 gold-focused branch adds over 2Q
MediumPart of 78-branch plan; phased rollout; gold headcount expanding
Risks the call surfaced
Deposit pricing / liquidity risk
HighQ1 deposit growth flat despite 23–25% guidance; April–May pricing hardness conceded. CoF stabilizing at 7.3–7.4% (no further drop benefit). Deposit growth momentum at risk if market remains tight.
Unsecured portfolio stabilization
MediumUnsecured slippages down 20% QoQ, but 5-quarter decline trend and 80% guarantee coverage suggest confidence. However, Q1 was collections-heavy (low slippage); Q2 may see marginal uptick as recovery deferred. Full-year 80%+ PAT guidance assumes slippage stabilization.
Full-year PAT guidance execution
MediumQ1 PAT ₹155 Cr is 52.3% YoY; FY27 guidance 80%+. Requires Q2–Q4 to average >110% growth, suggesting H2 significantly stronger than H1. If unsecured book re-stresses, cost control disappoints, or deposit growth misses, target at risk.
Cost-to-income ratio pressure
MediumCost-to-income 67% currently; guidance 63–65% for FY27. Requires 200–400 bps improvement. Guarantee commission (₹80–100 Cr est.) is now BAU cost, inflating ratio. Cost control must offset revenue growth slippage if deposits lag.
Macroeconomic sensitivity (geopolitical, climate)
LowIran conflict and El Nino weather risk flagged by analysts. Portfolio diversified, but MFI ~27% of book (weather-sensitive), unsecured 20% (concentrated in certain geographies). Management confident no material impact yet (July 15 call).
Management
Score 8/10. High clarity. Specific numbers, segment detail, forward roadmap. Transparent on challenges (deposit Q1 miss, CoF stabilization, cost base inflation from guarantee commission). Structured deck, detailed Q&A responses. Strong track record. Reiterated guidance (not upgraded), suggesting realistic expectations. Met secured loan growth target (29%). Slippage trajectory positive (5Q decline). Deposit miss explained (seasonality + pricing pressure) but not hand-waved; June actions taken.
1 · Q2 FY27
Deposit recovery expected; June rate hikes take effect; CASA +31% YoY momentum
2 · Q2 FY27
Credit Line on UPI launch (mass-scale product); loans against shares (RBI approved ₹1 Cr limit)
3 · Q3 FY27
CGMFU guarantee claims ₹65 Cr expected; first recovery influx from guarantee program
Key risk: deposit pricing may not ease soon; cost-income ratio still elevated at 67%.