Strong execution at 46% growth; order book momentum intact despite new ventures unproven
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Hold
confidence 7/10
Grade A
Hit H1 guidance. Reaffirmed 40% FY27 growth and 11-12% EBITDA margin. Execution momentum demonstrated.
Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Optimistic
multi-year
Strong operational execution (46% revenue growth, margin sustained at 12% EBITDA) and guidance reaffirmation on a robust macro tailwind in power transmission/distribution. Key risk: order book target (₹5,000 Cr) requires ₹1,300+ Cr more inflows in H2; new growth engines (BESS, HKRP, NZ) are early-stage and speculative, contributing marginally to FY27.
₹929.3 Cr
Revenue · +45.7% YoY₹79.2 Cr
Reported PAT · +34.8% YoYExpanding
Margins · vs guidance: CorroboratedDid the claims hold up?
H1 revenue growth 46% with 12% EBITDA margin
MET₹929.3 Cr revenue (46% YoY), ₹112 Cr EBITDA (12% margin), 8.5% PAT margin
Fresh order inflows H1 FY27 ₹1,250 Cr plus October ₹450 Cr
METPer call: H1 ₹1,250 Cr fresh orders, plus Oct ₹450 Cr = ₹1,700 Cr YTD (vs ₹4,000-5,000 Cr FY27 target)
Order book ₹3,600-4,000 Cr to execute in 18-24 months
METManagement stated ~₹3,600-4,000 Cr unexecuted; targeting ₹5,000 Cr closing by year-end
HKRP FY27 standalone revenue target ₹150 Cr at 20% PAT margin
OVERSTATEDUtsav Panchal: 'Target in FY27 for HKRP is around INR 150 crore of revenue and 20% PAT margin on standalone basis'
Maintaining 40% FY27 growth guidance despite macro volatility
METAdhish Patel: 'What guidance we had committed of 40%, we are maintaining our guidance' (upper end of prior 35-40% range)
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Revenue growth guidance reaffirmed
MaintainedManagement stated '40% growth' guidance for FY27 unchanged; call confirmed upper end of prior 35–40% range. H1 delivered 46%, tracking above guidance.
EBITDA margin ceiling held
MaintainedH1 margin 12% (top of 11–12% range); management reaffirmed 11–12% guidance despite cost inflation (import volatility noted).
Order book target escalated to ₹5,000 Cr
NeutralPrior call (FY26) referenced ₹4,000–5,000 Cr new inflows target. Current call reveals ₹5,000 Cr is closing book target (i.e., total unexecuted order book by year-end), not new inflows. Requires ₹1,300+ Cr incremental H2 inflows.
New initiatives unveiled (BESS, NZ, HKRP)
NewBESS (65 MW Virpur), NZ subsidiary (evaluating), HKRP ₹150 Cr FY27, data centre (preliminary). Not previously quantified; each early-stage.
Geographic mix shift underway
UpgradeOutside Gujarat order book moved from ~10% to 12% (H1 call). Targeting 15–20% in 2 years. Odisha emerging as material hub (₹16,000 Cr govt transmission projects announced).
The Q&A
Analysts pressed on working capital deterioration (receivables +86% YoY), HKRP margin profile, and ₹5,000 Cr order book feasibility. Management held firm: explained receivables as seasonal (September billing), HKRP as H2-heavy contributor, and order book as achievable given current ₹3,600–4,000 Cr unexecuted pipeline plus ₹1,700 Cr fresh inflows YTD.
JV profit margin and HKRP — Vishwendra Singh, Prudent Equity
AnsweredHKRP H2-heavy; JV 100% parent company. L1 status ~₹100 Cr; current bid pipeline ₹3,500–4,000 Cr
Guidance maintenance — Vishwendra Singh, Prudent Equity
AnsweredYes. Maintaining guidance of 40% growth and 11–12% EBITDA margin
Order book composition — Atul Kumar, Individual Investor
AnsweredL1 status ~₹100 Cr. Current bid pipeline ₹3,500–4,000 Cr total unexecuted. No HKRP order in parent's order book
New ventures and receivables — Atul Kumar, Individual Investor
PartialReceivables seasonal; ₹150–200 Cr booked in Sept alone (project-dependent). Unbilled is retention money to be recovered. NZ evaluating opportunities, no specific number yet
Order wins and execution — Nikhil Kanodia, Sunidhi Securities
AnsweredPGVCL ₹800–900 Cr, RVPNL ₹132 Cr gas, Odisha ₹212 Cr. 18–24 month execution. Margins sustained 11–12% EBITDA. NZ early-stage, targeting solar generation growth
HKRP and BESS strategy — Maitri Shah, Sapphire Capital
AnsweredHKRP ₹100–150 Cr per project; ₹3,000 Cr pan-India SCADA/DMS opportunity. BESS bidding purely EPC (not BOT). Data centre in preliminary stage with leading players
Outside Gujarat growth — Pawan Kumar, RatnaTraya Capital
AnsweredOutside Gujarat 10% → 12% currently; targeting 15–20% in 2 years. ₹5,000 Cr closing order book is achievable with current ₹3,600–4,000 Cr unexecuted pipeline
Working capital trend — Bijal Shah, RTL Investments
PartialReceivables project-dependent; Sept booking of ₹150–200 Cr explains surge. Execution momentum H2 will offset. Trade receivables improved due to better collections
HKRP investments — Mohit Arora, Hem Securities
AnsweredGIS mapping and tech part of project delivery; traditional transaction between HKRP and Rajesh. Promoter buying on dips in March; no current selling
Order book closing target — Vishwendra Singh, Prudent Equity (follow-up)
AnsweredYes, confident. Data centre is preliminary stage; targeting partnership approach (RFQ basis). Geographic diversification in progress
BESS and ex-Gujarat mix — Purva Shah, Grobiz Fund
AnsweredBESS EPC ₹200–300 Cr pipeline. Ex-Gujarat order book ₹1,500 Cr (moving from 10% to 12% share). Share increasing over time
Guidance
FY27 +40% growth (upper end of prior 35–40% range)
HighH1 delivered 46%; order book ₹3,600–4,000 Cr supports. Reaffirmed on call despite macro volatility
EBITDA 11–12% for FY27
HighH1 at 12% (top of range). Management stated maintained despite cost volatility (imports). FY27 achievable
PAT 8–9% margin for FY27
HighH1 at 8.5%; within range. Operating leverage demonstrated; stable financial costs
No formal CapEx guidance disclosed
MediumBESS 65 MW Virpur and HKRP platform investments mentioned (IPO proceeds deployed). Data centre and NZ early-stage
Risks the call surfaced
Order book execution
MediumUnexecuted order book ₹3,600–4,000 Cr; ₹5,000 Cr target requires ₹1,300+ Cr fresh inflows in H2. H1 added ₹1,700 Cr (incl Oct). If tendering slows or orders slip beyond FY27, growth guidance at risk.
HKRP contribution timing
MediumHKRP ₹150 Cr FY27 revenue target entirely in H2 (zero H1). Management stated H2-heavy; if SCADA/DMS project execution slips, full-year guidance at risk. Additionally, ₹150 Cr is ~16% of Rajesh's ₹929 Cr H1 run-rate; significant bet on early-stage profit margin (20% PAT).
Working capital seasonality
MediumTrade receivables jumped 86% YoY (₹174 Cr to ₹324 Cr); ₹150–200 Cr booked in September alone. While management attributed to normal project scheduling, the seasonal spike indicates lumpy cash flows and DSO vulnerability if project payment schedules tighten.
New ventures execution risk
MediumBESS pilot at Virpur is 65 MW (marginal relative to ₹929 Cr revenue). Data centre opportunity is 'preliminary stage'. NZ subsidiary is 'evaluating opportunities' with no specific targets. Together, these represent speculative growth but lack near-term revenue visibility. Market execution risk is elevated.
Geographic concentration reduction pace
LowOutside Gujarat order book only at 12% (up from 10% H1). Target is 15–20% in 2 years. While progression is underway, company remains Gujarat-centric for near-term. Odisha entry (₹212 Cr) is one large order; broader geographic traction is still building.
Management
Score 8/10. Clear, quantified responses. Management cited specific order values, timelines, and margin targets. Some deflection on data centre timing and NZ specifics, but overall candid on working capital seasonality and new venture early-stage status. Strong track record: 46% H1 revenue growth vs prior 35–40% guidance. Expanded to new geographies (Odisha ₹212 Cr) and new segments (BESS). Maintained EBITDA margin at 12% despite cost volatility. One concern: HKRP delivery concentrated in H2 with zero H1 contribution.
1 · Nov 2026–Feb 2027
Execute ₹1,200–1,300 Cr of unexecuted order book
2 · H2 FY27
HKRP ₹150 Cr standalone revenue delivery on SCADA/DMS projects
3 · Next 18–24 months
Odisha ₹212 Cr transmission project execution (geographic expansion)
Key risk: order book target (₹5,000 Cr) requires ₹1,300+ Cr more inflows in H2; new growth engines (BESS, HKRP, NZ) are early-stage and speculative, contributing marginally to FY27.
46% growth, but the ₹5,000 crore order book target is in doubt
Rajesh delivered on its H1 targets (46% revenue growth, 12% EBITDA margin), beating prior guidance. But the company's ₹5,000 crore closing order book target requires ₹1,300+ crore more inflows in H2—a gap that remains, and new ventures contribute little to FY27 results.
₹79.2 Cr
+34.8% YoY
46% YoY
vs 35–40% prior guidance
8.5%
within 8–9% range
₹1,300+ Cr
to hit ₹5,000 Cr target
Rajesh Power Services' H1 FY27 result is a clean operational beat: ₹929 crore revenue at 46% YoY growth (above the 35–40% prior guidance), EBITDA margin held at 12% despite cost inflation, and PAT of ₹79.2 crore (+35% YoY) within the 8–9% net margin guidance. The order book of ₹3,600–4,000 crore unexecuted provides visible 18–24 month execution runway. On the face of it, the quarter validates management's growth thesis. But there are two material qualifications.
The order book target—and its arithmetic
Management reaffirmed a ₹5,000 crore closing order book target by FY27 year-end. On the call, Adhish Patel (GM Finance) clarified this is the total unexecuted order book expected to remain on the balance sheet by March 2027, not ₹5,000 crore in new inflows. The current unexecuted book sits at ₹3,600–4,000 crore; H1+October saw ₹1,700 crore in fresh order inflows (₹1,250 Cr H1 plus ₹450 Cr in October). For the ₹5,000 crore closing target to hold, the company needs ₹1,300–1,400 crore more in new order wins in the final five months of FY27. This is achievable (the bid pipeline is ₹3,500–4,000 crore), but it is not yet in hand—and if tendering slows or major orders slip into FY28, the target evaporates. The distinction matters: management framed it as "confident" of ₹5,000 crore, but did not quantify H2 inflow expectations.
New ventures: early stage, concentrated in H2
HKRP (the 100%-owned smart grid subsidiary) carries a ₹150 crore FY27 revenue target at a 20% PAT margin. Management stated explicitly: the entire ₹150 crore is H2-heavy; H1 contribution was zero. This introduces two risks. First, delivery concentration: if SCADA/DMS project execution slips beyond March, the full-year target fails and PAT misses guidance. Second, overshadowing: the ₹150 crore represents ~16% of Rajesh's ₹929 crore H1 run-rate, so it is a material bet on an early-stage subsidiary. BESS (65 MW Virpur pilot, EPC bidding ₹200–300 crore pipeline), data centre (preliminary stage), and the New Zealand subsidiary (evaluating) together are positioned as long-term growth, but contribute negligibly to FY27 results and represent speculative upside beyond year-end.
What changed on this call
Three substantive shifts from prior guidance:
Order book target clarified: ₹5,000 Cr is the closing unexecuted book (March 2027), not new inflows—a distinction that raises the urgency of H2 inflows.
Geographic mix accelerating: Outside Gujarat order book rose from ~10% to 12% (targeting 15–20% in two years). Odisha entry (₹212 Cr transmission order) is the major anchor.
New ventures formally unveiled: BESS (65 MW), HKRP (₹150 Cr FY27), NZ subsidiary, and data centre partnerships disclosed with targets. Previously, only HKRP had a public number.
Management's claims: what holds up
H1 revenue growth 46% with 12% EBITDA margin
₹929 Cr revenue (+46% YoY); ₹112 Cr EBITDA (12%); 8.5% PAT margin reported.
Supported
Fresh order inflows H1+Oct ₹1,250 Cr + ₹450 Cr = ₹1,700 Cr YTD
Management quantified H1 ₹1,250 Cr plus October ₹450 Cr; bid pipeline ₹3,500–4,000 Cr.
Supported
Maintaining 40% FY27 growth guidance
Adhish Patel: 'What guidance we had committed of 40%, we are maintaining our guidance.' H1 at 46%; upper end of prior 35–40% range.
Supported
HKRP FY27 target ₹150 Cr at 20% PAT margin
Utsav Panchal stated explicitly. H1 contribution: zero (H2-heavy). 20% margin is target, not achieved.
Stated but high execution concentration risk
Receivables jumped due to improved collections; seasonal Sept spike
Receivables ₹324 Cr (Sept 2026) vs ₹174 Cr (Mar 2026) = 86% YoY. ₹150–200 Cr booked in Sept alone.
Partially explained (seasonal, DSO trend unclear)
Strong operational execution: 46% H1 revenue growth vs 35–40% prior guidance
EBITDA margin sustained at 12% (ceiling) despite cost inflation
Order pipeline robust: ₹3,500–4,000 Cr bid, ₹3,600–4,000 Cr unexecuted
Geographic expansion: Odisha ₹212 Cr entry; targeting 15–20% outside-Gujarat mix in two years
HKRP revenue all in H2 (zero H1): execution cliff risk if projects slip
Order book ₹5,000 Cr target requires ₹1,300+ Cr H2 inflows—not yet secured
Receivables spike 86% YoY; working capital seasonality masks DSO trend
New ventures (BESS, data centre, NZ) are early-stage and speculative for FY27
Risks: ranked by how much they should concern a holder
Order book target (₹5,000 Cr) requires ₹1,300+ Cr H2 inflows; bid pipeline ₹3,500–4,000 Cr (execution rate ~32% above H1 pace)
HighIf H2 order inflows slow or slip to FY28, both the closing order book target and implied growth guidance miss. Tendering delays or macro softness would trigger miss.
HKRP ₹150 Cr FY27 revenue all in H2; zero H1 contribution
HighRepresents ~16% of current revenue run-rate. If SCADA/DMS project execution slips beyond March, full-year PAT guidance misses. Management stated 20% PAT margin target; any delay cuts both revenue and profit.
Receivables 86% YoY jump (₹174 Cr to ₹324 Cr) driven by ₹150–200 Cr Sept booking
MediumSeasonal spike masks underlying trend. If project payment schedules tighten or September lumpiness repeats, working capital swings amplify, pressuring cash conversion.
New ventures (BESS 65 MW, HKRP tech, data centre, NZ) are speculative; minimal FY27 contribution
MediumPositioned as long-term growth but lack near-term revenue visibility. BESS EPC pipeline ₹200–300 Cr and data centre are preliminary; if execution falters, growth optionality evaporates.
Geographic concentration: Outside Gujarat only 12% of order book (target 15–20% in two years)
LowExecution track record outside Gujarat is limited. Odisha ₹212 Cr is one large anchor; broader geographic traction is unproven. Slowdown in Gujarat would crimp growth.
How the street is positioned
At ₹830 (as of November 6), Rajesh is trading below its 200-day moving average (₹854.79), down 49% from its all-time high of ₹1,639. The stock is neutral on a 20-day basis (₹782.04) and sits in the middle of its 52-week range (₹705–₹1,517). RSI at 61.6 is neutral; volume is increasing, suggesting institutional repositioning rather than capitulation.
Ownership is concentrated in promoter hands. FII ownership has declined to 0.68% (from 0.84% a year prior), while DII has ticked down to 3.51% (from 4.79%). Promoter stake holds steady at 72.70%. The combination—a 49% drawdown from ATH, declining FII/DII participation, and promoter stability—suggests institutional investors are de-risking post-IPO, while promoters have not stepped in to support the price. This is a vote of no-confidence on near-term momentum, not a fundamental endorsement.
The market's read: acknowledge the execution beat but price in execution risk and working capital seasonality. The stock's discount to ATH is justified by order book urgency (the ₹1,300+ Cr gap) and H2 concentration (HKRP, large project completions) that leaves no room for slippage.
What to watch next
1 · H2 order inflows (next 5 months)
Track whether the company closes ₹1,300–1,400 Cr in new order wins by March 2027. Major state tenders are open (Maharashtra, Assam, Kerala, UP, Bihar), and management is bidding on ₹3,500–4,000 Cr pipeline. If H2 inflows exceed ₹1,500 Cr, the ₹5,000 Cr closing target is secure and growth guidance is a floor. Below ₹1,000 Cr, the target is at risk.
2 · HKRP H2 execution (Q4 FY27 disclosure)
The subsidiary must deliver the full ₹150 Cr revenue and meet the 20% PAT margin in H2. Any slip into Q4 FY28 or margin compression below 20% will trigger guidance miss. Watch for project milestones (SCADA/DMS go-live dates) in management commentary.
3 · Working capital and DSO trend (Q4 results)
Receivables must trend back toward ₹175–200 Cr as seasonal Sept billing normalizes. If receivables remain elevated (₹300 Cr+) into Q4, it signals lumpy project scheduling and cash conversion risk. Monitor also the split of retention money vs. current DSO.
Rajesh Power Services delivered a solid operational quarter—46% revenue growth, margin maintained, order pipeline intact. But the company's growth narrative for FY27 rests on two concentration bets: landing ₹1,300+ crore in order inflows by March (currently a gap, not yet secured), and HKRP delivering ₹150 crore revenue entirely in H2 (zero H1 contribution). Both are achievable on the numbers; neither is assured.
The stock's 49% drawdown from ATH is a fair reflection of this execution risk and valuation reset. The market is neither panicking nor endorsing—FII/DII are trimming, promoters are steady—and the rising volume suggests a repricing in progress rather than capitulation.
The number to track from here: order inflows in H2 FY27. That single metric will resolve whether guidance is a floor or an overhang.
Rajesh Power H1 FY27: PAT +35% YoY to ₹79 Cr as revenue beats guidance, margins cool
PAT +34.78% YoY · revenue +45.7% · margins compressing
₹929.26 Cr
+45.7% YoY
₹79.22 Cr
+34.78% YoY
8.5%
-0.6pp YoY
₹43.99
Rajesh Power Services' consolidated revenue for H1 FY27 (Apr-Sep 2026) came in at ₹929.26 Cr, up 45.7% YoY from ₹637.82 Cr in H1 FY26 — comfortably ahead of management's own 35-40% FY27 revenue growth guidance reaffirmed at the April 2026 concall. Consolidated PAT rose 34.8% YoY to ₹79.22 Cr (₹58.78 Cr a year ago), with EPS at ₹43.99 against ₹32.64. Standalone numbers track closely: PAT ₹78.50 Cr, up 35.2% YoY (EPS ₹43.59 vs ₹32.24), with the small gap to consolidated coming almost entirely from the company's ₹0.94 Cr share of profit in its two joint ventures. There were no exceptional items in either this half or the year-ago half, so these are clean, reported growth rates with no one-off adjustment needed. No formal street consensus for this result could be located — the stock trades on BSE's SME platform with limited analyst coverage — so vsStreet is marked unknown rather than guessed.
Q2 FY-2027 vs prior quarters
The growth came with margin give-back: consolidated operating margin eased to roughly 12.0% from about 13.2% a year ago, and net margin to about 8.5% from 9.2%, as the topline scaled faster than profitability. Both readings still sit within the 11-12% EBITDA-margin and 8-9% PAT-margin bands management guided to in April, so this is compression toward the lower end of the guided range rather than a guidance miss — consistent with the 'margins cool' framing already on file for this quarter. The order pipeline adds context: RPSL booked a ₹471.92 Cr MGVCL order (Oct 12) and a ₹69 Cr UGVCL order (Oct 14) in the weeks right after the half closed — about ₹541 Cr of fresh wins — moving toward the ₹4,000-5,000 Cr FY27 new-order-inflow target management set alongside its Gujarat-diversification and BESS EPC push in April. No standalone management press release accompanied this filing beyond the board-meeting outcome letter, so there is no additional management commentary to reconcile against the print this quarter.
The stock went into the print at ₹792, up 5.5% over the past month of trading.
For context: this is the second-highest quarterly PAT of the last 4 quarters.
What the summary numbers don't show
Half-yearly filer — RPSL reports reviewed results every six months (SME platform listing), not quarterly — this is an H1 FY27 statement, not a discrete Q2
Management reaffirms strong revenue growth guidance of 35-40% for FY27, supported by a target of INR 4,000-5,000 crores in new order inflows. The company is confident in maintaining stable EBITDA margins of 11-12% and PAT margins of 8-9%. Strategically, the focus is on geographic diversification to reduce dependency on
— This quarter: beat
W1
Whether OPM holds at the guided 11-12% floor as the new ~₹541 Cr of October orders (MGVCL + UGVCL) execute through H2 FY27 — H1 OPM already sits at the low end, ~12.0%
W2
Pace of new order inflow against the ₹4,000-5,000 Cr FY27 target — track cumulative disclosed wins at the next half-year/quarterly update
W3
Progress on BESS EPC entry and Gujarat-geography diversification, the two strategic priorities flagged at the April 2026 concall — no segment/geography breakout is given yet (single reportable EPC segment)
Company (BSE SME platform, scrip 544291) files half-yearly limited-reviewed results, not quarterly — figures are for H1 FY27 (Apr-Sep 2026). No exceptional items in current or year-ago half (H2 FY26 carried a ₹0.64 Cr exceptional item, irrelevant to this YoY pair). Standalone and consolidated arithmetic (Total Income check; PBT-tax=PAT) both tie out exactly.