Growth momentum but guidance cuts signal caution on profitability
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Hold
confidence 6/10
Grade B
Cut credit growth guidance 18-20%→14%; missed NIM 3.5%→3.22%, ROA 1.25%→1.07%; met GNPA <2.25% target.
Cautiously Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Neutral
multi-year
Bank delivered strong 10.6% YoY PAT growth on the back of credit momentum (23.7% advances YoY) and improving GNPA (2.23%), but cut FY27 credit growth guidance from 18-20% to 14%—a significant reset. NIM compressed to 3.22% vs 3.5% target; Q2 profits supported ₹25Cr TWO recovery + ₹92Cr treasury/insurance gains, masking core profitability pressure. Execution risk on deposit mix and CASA conversion remain key headwinds.
₹3728.8 Cr
Revenue · +13.2% YoY₹547.3 Cr
Reported PAT · +10.6% YoYCompressing
Margins · vs guidance: MixedDid the claims hold up?
Credit growth momentum with retail focus (23.7% advances YoY)
METAdvances YoY 23.7%; but FY27 credit growth guidance cut from 18-20% to 14%
PAT jumped 29% QoQ and double-digit YoY growth
METDelivered PAT YoY 10.6%, QoQ 28.7%; partly driven by ₹25Cr TWO recovery + ₹92Cr treasury/insurance gains
GNPA coming down, asset quality improving to decadal best
METGNPA 2.23% (vs 2.37% Q1); within <2.25% guidance but still above 2% target
NIM improvement expected from rate hikes and CASA repricing
OVERSTATEDQ2 NIM 3.22%, down from Q1 3.28% and target 3.5%; management admits compression
ROA improvement with 1.2% guidance achievable
OVERSTATEDQ2 ROA 1.07%, below guidance 1.25%+ from Q1; 1.2% guidance conservative/defensive tone
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Credit growth guidance downgrade
DowngradeQ1 guided 18-20% FY27 credit growth; Q2 revised to 14% plus. Retail focus maintained but overall pace slowing.
Deposit guidance upgraded
UpgradeReaffirmed 10% in Q1; raised to 12% in Q2 (deposits +16.3% YoY, growing faster than expected)
ROA guidance reset lower
DowngradeQ1 guided 1.25%+; Q2 achieved 1.07%, revised guidance to 1.20%. Management tone evasive; relies on one-off recoveries.
NIM outlook cautious
DowngradeQ1 NIM 3.28% target 3.5%; Q2 NIM 3.22%, compressed 6 bps QoQ. Management expects recovery from rate hikes but unclear on timeline.
The Q&A
Analysts pressed hard on ROA (Deepak Poddar), credit growth (Hatim B), NIM drivers (Shruti Agrawal), bulk deposits (Jai Prakash Mundhra). Management deflected ROA questions (Amitava said 'at least we will not lose the ratio'), withheld detailed NIM guidance ('do not want to mention a particular number'), and was evasive on bulk deposit rundown timing. Tone defensive; no hard commitments on profitability recovery metrics.
CASA conversion strategy — Yuvraj Choudhary, Anand Rathi
PartialSigning MOUs with multiple organizations for salary accounts, including state government. ~20 such MOUs expected this quarter; positive CASA inflows recorded in Q2.
Credit cost outlook — Yuvraj Choudhary, Anand Rathi
AnsweredDo not expect incremental credit cost. Current slippages under control; no reason to increase credit cost. ECL model being finalized; detail to be shared by December.
ROA guidance — Deepak Poddar, Sapphire Capital
DodgedNot a downgrade, just conservative. Recovery in written-off accounts and other income in pipeline. 'At least we will not lose the ratio.' Will hit 1.20% and could exceed it.
Credit growth guidance change — Hatim B, JM Financial
AnsweredTarget revised to 14% plus. Retail to remain 60%, corporate 40%. Next quarter will see more rate hikes, retail advances growth will continue.
NIM trajectory — Shruti Agrawal, Nomura
PartialDo not want to mention a particular NIM number. 25 bps repo improvement expected to help. Yield should improve; CASA inflow pressure easing; substantial NIM improvement expected next quarter.
Other income components — Amansingh Sahajsinghani, ICICI Securities
PartialTWO recovery strong pipeline (8-10 quarters of prior recovery pace). OTS scheme approval in progress; cross-selling and treasury income also improving. Not a one-off; ongoing structural improvements.
Bulk deposit rundown — Jai Prakash Mundhra, ICICI Securities
AnsweredBulk deposits ~₹3,000Cr high-cost outstanding. Will benefit accrue in Q3? Yes, definitely Q3 and Q4.
Employee cost trajectory — Gaurav Agrawal, Nine One Capital
AnsweredExpected to remain flat, maybe slight dip from Q1 to Q2. Q3–Q4 will see additions; cost back to current levels by FY28 but not rising further.
Guidance
Credit growth 14% plus for FY27 (revised from 18-20%)
MediumRetail 60%, corporate 40% split. Retail advances focus continuing; economic headwinds cited
NIM to improve from 3.22% (H1) toward 3.5% via rate hikes + CASA repricing
Low25 bps repo expected; no specific NIM target disclosed; management avoiding number guidance
₹1,000Cr equity capital raise + ₹500Cr debt capital raise planned
MediumTiming flexible, awaiting opportune window. Debt likely this quarter; equity dependent on market conditions
Risks the call surfaced
Profitability sustainability
High₹25Cr TWO recovery + ₹92Cr treasury/insurance/cross-sell gains comprised ~22% of Q2 operating income. Without these, core PAT growth weaker. Management targets 'substantial' pipeline but durability for FY28 uncertain.
Net Interest Margin compression
HighQ2 NIM 3.22%, down from Q1 3.28% and target 3.5%. CASA decline (7% vs 10% guidance) raised cost of deposits to 4.85%. Management attributes to repo rate hike cycle reversal and deposit mix, but visibility limited on recovery timing.
Credit growth deceleration
MediumCredit growth guidance cut from 18-20% to 14%, a 4-6 ppt reduction. Management cites conservative approach and focus on retail, but cut suggests macro headwinds or asset quality concerns. Advances at 23.7% YoY but guidance for full year lower.
Deposit mix deterioration
MediumCASA growth only 7% YTD vs 10% FY27 guidance. Bulk deposits ~₹3,000Cr at high cost still outstanding. Despite MOUs signed, CASA conversion remains uncertain. If CASA doesn't recover, NIM pressure will persist.
ROA guidance uncertainty
MediumROA guidance revised down from 1.25%+ to 1.20%; Q2 delivered 1.07%. Amitava said 'at least we will not lose the ratio,' a defensive statement. ROA recovery tied to one-off recoveries (TWO, OTS) and non-fund-based income (~30-40% improvement Q2). Structural ROA improvement unclear.
ECL implementation risk
LowECL implementation ongoing; management said detail to be shared in December. Potential credit cost headwind if ECL assessment is materially different from current provisioning; management withheld numbers.
Management
Score 5/10. Mixed. Management disclosed Q2 numbers clearly but avoided specific guidance on NIM ('do not want to mention a particular number'), ROA ('at least we will not lose the ratio'), and ECL impact ('not what I want to mention at the moment'). Evasiveness on key profitability drivers undermines credibility. Moderate. Delivered 10.6% YoY PAT growth but cut credit growth guidance (18-20% → 14%); missed NIM (3.5% target vs 3.22% delivered), ROA (1.25% vs 1.07%), and ROE (~16% vs 13.68%) targets from Q1. GNPA improvement (2.37% → 2.23%) is on track.
1 · Q3 FY27
Repo rate transmission to improve yields; high-cost deposit shedding complete
2 · Q3–Q4 FY27
OTS scheme recovery + written-off account pipeline (2-year runway substantial)
3 · H2 FY27
₹1,000Cr equity + ₹500Cr debt capital raise to fund growth
Execution risk on deposit mix and CASA conversion remain key headwinds.
Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.