Guidance cut, margin crushed, Q2 trajectory bleaker

Delivered result OPM 20.6% on ₹942.9 Cr implies EBITDA ~₹194 Cr; call figure ₹203 Cr vs actual

Q1 volume +6.5% but Q2 saw 12% decline in July; implies 2H recovery needed

Delivered result NPM 7.8%, OPM 20.6% consistent with margin compression narrative

Without that ₹40 Cr, EBITDA would be ~₹243-244 Cr; still -5.6% vs prior year

EC expected Oct 2026, work to start mid-Oct/Nov; timeline contingent on approvals

Total outstanding ₹130 Cr; ₹115 Cr FY27 expectation vs ₹145 Cr prior = ₹30 Cr reduction

Revised from 10-12% (prior FY26 call guidance) to 8-9% due to Q1 miss and Q2 flood impact

Industry Northeast growth expected 7% (from prior 8-10% range); company targeting 8-9% (from prior 10-12%)

Expected to be flat or -5-10% in FY27 vs FY26; prior guidance implied growth. Outside clinker import pressure cited.

Reduced to ₹115 Cr from expected ₹145 Cr due to Assam government's new payout structure (12-year amortization). ₹30 Cr hit.

FY27 capex maintained ₹500 Cr but implied cut from prior ₹600-700 Cr guidance. Major spend deferred to FY28+ (₹1,500 Cr+)

Q2 flooded, limited stride expected. From Q3-Q4 double-digit growth hoped. Full year revised to 8-9% from 11-12%.

Clinker FY27 will be stagnant or degrade 5-10% vs FY26 due to clinker import from outside Northeast.

Fuel ₹1.55 in Q1, expected ₹1.45 in Q2, further reduction in Q3-Q4. ₹1,500-1,600 EBITDA/ton doable over full year but ₹1,400 expected in Q2 due to shutdown cost.

Due to lack of demand in Q1-Q2 and floods, pent-up demand expected in Q3-Q4. Currently muted. Price broadly stable in both Northeast and outside Northeast.

EC by Sep-Oct 2026, work to start mid-Oct/Nov. 18-20 months from Nov means Q1 FY29 or Q4 FY28 commissioning.

Not competition. April elections in Assam (60-70% of Northeast market) impacted sales. Monsoon also plays role. Market share not lost.

Q2 and July volume degrowth ~12% due to Assam floods. Marginal growth in Aug expected. Recovery expected in Sep (no GST change this year vs -28% to -18% last year).

Comparing West Bengal and Bihar as alternatives. If policy favorable, may redirect Bihar capex to West Bengal. More clarity after policy announcement mid-August.

Standard approved package for Nimbol clinker plant received. Capital subsidy + SGST benefit. Exact quantum not in hand but will be shared in next presentation.

Total ₹794 Cr incentive expected. Currently ₹130 Cr outstanding. Assam changed payout from performance-based to 12-year amortization, reducing FY27 expectation to ₹115 Cr from ₹145 Cr.

Prices broadly flat. Q1 to now, ~₹2-3 increase. Flat because demand low; no price reduction due to cost pressure. Expect price increase once demand opens.

Fuel may reduce to ₹1.45. Packing costs remain high (war/crude related). Multiple cost initiatives ongoing: railway siding Sep-Nov, EVs intro, wagon tippler. Expect ₹60-70 Cr savings in Q2 from one-off donations/incentive reduction.

Not EBITDA increase, revenue estimate. Demand sluggish. Increasing RMC plants, focusing on ASC. Should reach ₹150 Cr by Q4 on ARR basis.

Q1 actual +6.5%, Q2 headwind expected, H2 recovery dependent on monsoon abatement and pent-up demand release

Fuel expected to ease ₹1.45 in Q2, further in Q3-Q4. Packing costs remain elevated. Shutdown cost in Q2. Very dependent on fuel prices and subsidy.

Rajasthan ₹2.6-2.9 Cr over 2 years for 3.3 MT clinker + 3 MT grinding. West Bengal grinding unit (2 MT) under review pending policy.

Northeast 67% of cement sales. Q1 elections in Assam (60-70% of Northeast) impacted sales. Q2 July volume -12% due to Assam floods. Risk of further negative YoY in Q2.

FY27 guidance of ₹115 Cr subsidy critical to profitability (13-15% of EBITDA). Assam changed payout from performance-based to 12-year amortization, cutting ₹30 Cr this year. Further policy change could materially impact earnings.

Q1 PAT down 24.7% YoY despite revenue +3.4%. Fuel cost ₹1.55/kg (+17% QoQ). Packing costs elevated due to war/crude oil volatility. Management has no pricing power (prices flat despite cost pressures). Subsidy offsets margin pressure artificially.

Clinker sales -30% YoY (0.52 MT vs 0.74 MT). MD attributes to external clinker import into Northeast. No clear evidence of market share defense. Dalmia Bharat capacity expansion in Northeast ongoing. Pricing power absent (prices flat despite cost spike).

FY27 ₹500 Cr + FY28 ₹1.5 Cr + Rajasthan ₹2.6-2.9 Cr = massive capex. QIP plan deferred due to current balance sheet stress. Company confident it can manage at 1.5-1.6x debt EBITDA but Q1 results (PAT -24.7%) suggest earnings power weaker than expected. No clear funding plan articulated.