Profit growth solid but credit stress rising; growth guidance at risk

Delivered ₹143 Cr, 19.7% YoY (CFO stated 20%, rounding variance); QoQ 3.9%

Q1 18% growth; peers at 30–40%. July ₹400 Cr cited but annualized ~₹1.6B vs ₹2B needed for 25% AUM growth

97% is decade low; April 96.2%, same as prior year April. Overall trend deteriorating from ~98%+ prior years

CFO confirmed disbursement timing shifted but interest recognized on check clearance since May 2024 rule

Stage 3 at 1.5% (+30 bps). Analysts noted Q2 historically sees rises, not flats. Claim is forward-looking, unverified vs past patterns

Stage 3 at 1.5% (+30 bps), 30+ at 5.2% (vs sub-3% historically). Prior guidance made no mention; Q1 reveals new weakness despite 24% AUM growth.

Q1 at 97%, April 96.2%; prior years >98%. Suggests portfolio stress emerging; not just seasonality.

18% YoY (check realization basis) vs peers 30–40%. Q1 zero branch additions vs annual target 40–45; management deferred branch opens to Q2–Q3.

Check handover to check realization; ₹405 Cr timing impact. No P&L effect but creates reporting noise masking underlying slowdown.

Partners exist but names confidential. Use cases in vernacular call center, lead triage, turnaround time reduction. No quantified ROI metric disclosed.

July ₹400 Cr disbursement strong, confident 20%+ achievable. Collection efficiency seasonal Q1 dip; expects recovery Q2–Q3 as 30+ delinquency comes down.

Self-employed stress (1.5–2 yrs), 80%+ of book. Lower-ticket (₹7L) Stage 3 at 2% vs 1.4% three years back. 1+ metric remains stable (not disclosed). Seasonality + recovery Q3+.

Yes, correct. Reported ₹641 Cr but actual disbursement ₹1,046 Cr; bank clearance ₹1,040 Cr. Accounting change reflects true economics, no P&L impact.

Collection team increased & scattered 2–3 qtrs back across geographies. Self-employed stress (1.5–2 yrs, same as MFI period). Seasonal Q1. No internal deficiency.

April 96.2–96.4%, May ~96–97%, June 97.5%. Prior April also 96.2%; seasonal pattern. Expects improvement Q2.

Yes, Q2 flat, Q3 recovery. Stress spike came early (Q1) this year vs Q3 last year; different seasonal timing of delinquency flows.

Confident; July strong despite monsoon. Q2 ₹1,200 Cr reachable, Q3 better. 20%+ disbursement = 25–30% AUM; numbers speak.

Q1 at 24% impacted by ₹405 Cr accounting shift. Management confident July ₹400 Cr run-rate will drive acceleration. Disbursement growth needs 20%+ rest of year.

Portfolio yield 14.8% stable, finance cost 8.2% stable. Incremental yield 14.9% provides cushion. Cost-to-income 36%, OpEx 4%; both stable.

Zero branches Q1; timing shifted to Q2–Q3. Management says 160 employees added Q1 for collections & tech, not branches. Acceleration needed Q2 onwards.

Stage 3 at 1.5% (+30 bps YoY), 30+ at 5.2% vs sub-3% historically. 80%+ of portfolio self-employed, under stress 1.5–2 yrs. Collection efficiency 97%, lowest on record.

Collection team scattered across geographies 2–3 qtrs back; efficiency still recovering (97% in Q1, April 96.2%). Risk of Stage 3 persistence longer than guided.

Disbursement growth 18% YoY (check realization basis) vs peers 30–40%. AUM growth 24% vs guidance 25–30%. Q1 zero branch additions; deferred to Q2–Q3.

Bankers asking 20–25 bps higher cost; management expects overall impact +10 bps H2. Incremental yield raised 30 bps to offset; risk of spread compression if tightness persists.