Record capacity adds, but earnings still muted by capex burden

1.1 GW added YTD (36% of 3 GW target); organic 723 MW + Tidong M&A 150 MW; capacity on plan

Demand +8.5% Q1 YoY, July +12% MTD; DAM ₹5.10 vs ₹4.40 YoY; but company revenue only +1.2%

Leverage 4.95x (improved via ₹10,150 Cr capital raise, not organic); gross debt ₹74,000 Cr, cash ₹12,900 Cr

Q1 PAT down 36.3%, revenue flat; earnings compression due to depreciation +20%, interest +16%

Thermal generation down 6% YoY; Utkal shutdown planned for maintenance, Mahanadi 17-day evacuation outage (184 MU loss)

300 MW subcritical thermal in Chhattisgarh (195 MW PPA, 64 MW merchant); opportunity to brownfield expand at low capex near coal mine

5 GWh plant commissioned Q4FY26, now monetizing; targeting ₹150 Cr annual EBITDA at $2.75-3/kWh margins; exploring backward integration into cell manufacturing

450 blades/year capacity at Halol; supports 600 MW wind installations/annum; second facility (Chitradurga) expected FY27

De-risking equipment supply for thermal; combined with GE boiler acquisition (closing Q1FY27), fully secured turbine-generator-boiler supply chain

3 GW capacity + ₹20,000 Cr capex maintained on track (36% achieved); long-term 30 GW/2030 unchanged; withheld FY28 numbers pending 'major driving factors' confirmation

Utkal minimum load stable at 60%, overall 85% PLF in July. We recover fixed costs via PPA and can sell merchant. Ratnagiri, Vijayanagar built to run below 50% already.

Mahanadi 4th unit from Chinese suppliers, already on dispatch. Salboni 2×800 MW via TJPS (turbine/generator); boiler from GE facility acquisition (1.1 GW nameplate, can scale to 1.6 GW with de-bottlenecking).

$2.75–$3/kWh; full-year capacity ≈ $15M revenue → ₹150 Cr+ EBITDA. Exploring backward integration into cell manufacturing with tech partners.

1.1 GW added YTD; 300 MW under TGNA (curtailment), expected GNA conversion by Aug 31. Balance 1.9 GW: 530 MW group captive (off-grid), rest utilities + C&I. All 3 GW FY27 secured. FY28 to be confirmed later.

Not giving project-specific capex; ~₹5 Cr/MW benchmark plausible. High-teen IRRs expected, significantly above mid-teen benchmark. Execution risk low (easier terrain vs Himalayan hydro).

Salboni greenfield benchmark known; Mahanadi will be 25–30% lower when doubling capacity, due to existing infrastructure reuse.

Not now, but exploring. Gap exists before thermal peak capacity available; solar + co-located storage attractive if DC-side economics work.

Utkal: planned shutdown for annual maintenance (critical post-PPA). Ratnagiri: Group captive scheduling + monsoon demand dip. Mahanadi: 17-day evacuation (Force Majeure). All now normalized in July (91%+ availability).

Q1 historically weak (22%); Q3–Q4 post-monsoon reach 26–28%. 400 MW capacity under curtailment (TGNA); once normalized, full-year 25% achievable.

Cost-efficient acquisition; close to coal mine. Opportunity: 64 MW merchant capacity upside; potential for brownfield doubling. EV/EBITDA multiple attractive vs industry norm.

Already raised ₹7,000 Cr; operating cash flow + fundraise ≈ ₹12–12.5k Cr available. Balance ₹7.5–8k Cr incremental debt expected.

Typical project economics: high interest during construction (capitalized), P&L hit post-commission. Asset stabilization over 4–5 years; then better EBITDA-to-PAT translation. Industry norm.

85% annual availability entitlement; once achieved, revenue recognized in that quarter. Cash collection expected next 2–3 quarters.

36% achieved Q1; 87% of FY26 full-year added; organizational machinery aligned; connectivity largely secured

Management deferred specific margin recovery path; implied: 4–5 year cycle for new assets to normalize (capex drag to normalize in FY28+)

Funded via ₹12–12.5k Cr (capex raise + OCF); ₹7.5–8k Cr incremental debt acceptable; leverage targeting <5x by 2030

300 MW under TGNA facing real curtailment (69 MU wind+solar Q1); Mahanadi 17-day evacuation outage (184 MU, though Force Majeure recovery expected). Repeat risk if grid upgrades lag capacity commissioning.

Mahanadi 4th unit relies on Chinese suppliers (regulatory window secured but renewal risk); Salboni TJPS turbine-generator on track but civil + boiler (GE acquisition closing) synchronized. Doubling thermal capacity while scaling RE.

Merchant 64 MW Maruti capacity competing directly against solar in 12–1pm window; Mahanadi merchant upside depends on coal tariffs remaining competitive. DAM prices volatile; coal import cost hedging limited.

4.95x leverage high for utility; tied to equity capital markets appetite (QIP, promoter allotment, asset sales). Equity dilution ongoing; cost of debt rising with RBI policy. Interest expense ₹1,519 Cr Q1 (16% YoY).

Q1 PAT -36.3% despite revenue +1.2% and strong sector demand (+8.5%). Management states this is normal project economics (capex accounting), but no formal PAT growth target disclosed. Shareholders face 2–3 years of earnings suppression before normalization.