Record execution on FDRE, battery strategy shift drives margin expansion

Operating income ₹291 Cr (+81% YoY), EBITDA ₹294 Cr (+86% YoY), margin 91% (+300 bps)

458 MW solar + 143 MW wind confirmed; fits 760+ MW April–June window

Wind CUF 49.9%, plant availability 98.8%, generation +72%

Confirmed; reflects strong A-rated offtaker base

760 MW done by June, ₹22,000 Cr capex through March 27 implies execution confidence; hedges via battery strategy

Battery cost deflation ($150→$100) now favors solar+battery over solar+wind+battery; simpler execution, same returns. This is not guidance change, but portfolio optimization.

1.5 GWh (June 27) + 700 MWh (Dec 26) to run merchant; 1–2 years runway before PPAs. Buying ₹1–1.50, selling ₹8–20 (HPDAM).

870 MW + 2.2 GWh at ₹5.26/unit (LOA received). Thermal-mimic structure validates long-duration battery model.

Proof point for FDRE model; first-mover advantage now locked in operationally.

Was ₹16,000 Cr as of June 30; additional ₹6,000 Cr reflects 3.9 GW pipeline. Suggests aggressive execution but on track.

No major risk. 760 MW done; Q2 300 MW on STU (no grid issue). 1 GW balance on CTU with operational substations. Will use merchant batteries if delayed.

350 MW FDRE in advanced discussions (buyers confirmed). Thermal mimic 1 GW peak + 2.2 GWh should come fast (attractive tariff vs thermal cost).

Fully integrated solution from Envision (AESC cells, 4.5 GWh contracted). Closed 2–2.5 GWh at $58–60/MWh container price (Jan 26); now $65–68. All-in ~$100/MWh. Solar+battery optimal at <$100; beats wind combo on execution ease.

Run-rate EBITDA: FY27 ₹2,700–2,750 Cr (4 GW capacity by March 27). FY28 ₹4,500 Cr (6 GW capacity).

Not doing standalone BESS (returns too low in transmission-only mode). BESS is integrated into FDRE/thermal mimic contracts. Merchant BESS will happen as transient capacity. Returns 'higher teens' on combined projects.

FY27: 1.5 GWh firm merchant (1–2 years) + 700 MWh staged by Dec 26 (9–12 months merchant). Margins: buy ₹1–1.50, sell ₹8–20 (HPDAM). Caveats: weather-dependent, not counting upside in guidance.

Solar+battery solution handles profile. ~1–2% daytime surplus (will not monetize). Won't buy from grid during peak (must be renewable). Structural balance achieved.

760 MW YTD (April–June); transmission and land tied up. Q2 capacity on STU (no grid risk). Execution strategy clear.

Blended avg tariff ₹3.7/unit; 84% FDRE/hybrid (cost-optimized). Capex ₹22,000 Cr through March 27 funds this pipeline.

Run-rate EBITDA ₹4,500 Cr assumes conversion of 5 GW LOA to PPA (350 MW FDRE + 1 GW thermal mimic in progress). Timing uncertain.

Q1 run-rate on 2.575 GW was ₹1,620 Cr (₹630/GW). 4 GW implies ₹2,520 Cr; call states ₹2,700–2,750 Cr (assumes margin accretion as FDRE/battery costs fall).

Assumes ₹750/GW run-rate (higher than current ₹630/GW). Depends on battery cost trajectory and BESS merchant opportunity realization.

Q1 at 90% operating margin. Portfolio quality (98% A-rated, 25-year PPA) and cost curve support this floor.

Increased from ₹16,000 Cr as of June 30. Reflects 250+ MW Q2, 1+ GW thereafter. Battery capex (₹4.5 GWh @ ~₹450 Cr/GWh) embedded.

4.5 GWh fully contracted with Envision. 10 GWh implies ₹5.5 GWh additional (₹2,475 Cr capex); orders placed, no delivery risk stated.

1 GW balance FY27 on CTU with operational substations, but full system completion by Dec 26. Merchant battery strategy mitigates 6–12 months.

1.5 GWh merchant BESS for 1–2 years; margins depend on day–night tariff spread (buy ₹1–1.50, sell ₹8–20). Weather, seasonal demand swings impact realization.

All 4.5 GWh through June 27 from Envision (single vendor). LTSA covers 15–20 years, but supply/tech risk exists.

Portfolio spread across SECI, state DISCOMs, and private offtakers. No single-offtaker concentration data disclosed, but 98% A-rating masks potential DISCOM default risk.

Battery cost declined $150→$100/MWh (18 months); further deflation may slow. If tariff stops falling, margin accretion narrative weakens.