HINDUSTAN ZINC LTD. · QQ2 FY-2027 · THE CALL

Record PAT ₹6,412 Cr (+142% YoY), COP guidance raised to $825-850

The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.

Q2 FY27 results HINDZINCHINDUSTAN ZINC LTD.23 Oct 2026 · 6 min read

Verdict

Buy

confidence 9/10

Credibility

Grade A

Delivered all targets: PAT record, COP crushed prior guide by $272–297/ton, silver on track. No misses.

Short-term outlook

Very Optimistic

next 1–2 quarters

Long-term outlook

Very Optimistic

multi-year

Record PAT ₹6,412 Cr (+142% YoY) with COP guidance raised ($825–850 vs $975–1,000 guided) and silver FY27 on track at 680 tons. 2x growth capex (250 KTPA zinc, 10 MTPA tailing) executing; structural zinc/silver deficits favourable. Upside risk: commodity price volatility, geopolitical cost pressures (~$50/ton headwind partly mitigated by byproduct upsides).

₹15093 Cr

Revenue · +76.5% YoY

₹6412 Cr

Reported PAT · +142.1% YoY

Expanding

Margins · vs guidance: Corroborated

Did the claims hold up?

Management's claims vs. the numbers

Zinc COP $703/ton, 29% better YoY

MET

$703 vs prior FY27 guide $975–1,000 confirms beat by $272–297

Mined metal production +5% YoY highest-ever Q2

MET

Confirmed; refined metal also +7% YoY, driving record output

Silver 173 tons Q2, 20% YoY rise; 45% of H1 profit

MET

H1 = 321 tons + 20 tons concentrate = 341 tons; maintains 680-ton FY27 guide

Record EBITDA ₹9,285 Cr, net profit ₹6,412 Cr

MET

Delivered matches; EBITDA +108% YoY, PAT +142% YoY

COP guidance revised DOWN to $825–850 from $975–1,000

MET

Q2 actual $703 justifies upgrade; cost escalations ~$50 partially offset by sulfuric acid upside

Earnings quality

What changed since the last call

Deltas vs. the prior call

COP guidance raised

Upgrade

$975–1,000 → $825–850 for FY27; Q2 delivered $703, beat prior by $272–297/ton due to cost discipline & sulfuric acid upside; partially offset by ~$50 geopolitical cost pressures.

Silver FY27 reaffirmed

Neutral

680 tons guidance unchanged. H1 delivered 341 tons (321 refined + 20 concentrate); H2 needs ~170/qtr, achievable. FY28 cautious: 'hope for 730–750' pending debottlenecking outcomes.

Capex execution tracking

Neutral

₹5,000 Cr full-year on track; Q2 spent ₹1,900 Cr (sustaining ₹1,200 + growth ₹700). Expansion projects (250 KTPA zinc, 10 MTPA tailing) progressing E&P/mine dev phases.

The Q&A

Analysts pressed on sulfuric acid contribution, COP ex-byproducts, and concentrate monetization plan. Management held firm: byproduct is market-dependent, no forward guidance; overall COP reported as consolidated. All Q&A resolved satisfactorily. No evasion detected; tone remained disciplined. Q&A score: 8/10.

The exchanges that mattered

Hedging exposure — Pallav Agarwal, Antique Stock Broking

Answered

Q3: 40 KT Zn @ ₹3,476, 8 T Ag @ $68/oz; Q4: 36 KT Zn @ ₹3,698. Prices support margins under commodity stress.

COP beat vs prior guide — Pallav Agarwal, Antique Stock Broking

Answered

Positive surprise: sulfuric acid byproduct realization strong; geopolitical cost escalations ~$50 headwind; net benefit persists. Q2 delivered broadly on revised $825–850 range.

Capex & coal usage — Kartikeya Pandey, 360 ONE Capital

Answered

Q2: sustaining ₹1,200 Cr, growth ₹700 Cr. FY27 full-year: ₹5,000 Cr. Domestic coal: 32% in Q2. Expansion spend accelerates Q3/Q4.

Critical mineral blocks — Anuj Khandelwal, JM Financial

Answered

3 exploration blocks: exploration program concludes Q3 FY29. Gundlupet REE + Yttrium mining lease executed; resources/plans in 2–3 years. 7.6% ore grade Q2.

Lead concentrate monetization — Shweta Dikshit, Systematix

Answered

Q2: 10 KT (10 T Ag + 6 KT Pb) = ₹300 Cr revenue, ₹155 Cr profit. No fixed plan; opportunistic based on smelter capacity utilization.

Silver production guidance FY27 & FY28 — Shweta Dikshit, Systematix

Partial

FY27: 680 tons reaffirmed; H1 delivered 341 (inc. 20T concentrate), H2 on track. FY28: 'We can hope for 730–750' pending debottlenecking outcome.

Byproduct COP isolation & sulfuric contribution — Sumangal Nevatia, Kotak Securities

Partial

Sulfuric is byproduct; no isolated COP guidance (market-dependent, auction-priced). Prior-year H1 contribution ~₹1,000–1,200 Cr; no FY27 forward colour given volatility.

Guidance

Forward guidance and management's confidence

H1 FY27: ₹28,840 Cr (+77% YoY); continues momentum into H2

High

No explicit H2 or FY27 total revenue guide given; H1 data suggests strong run-rate. Q2 beat vs historical norms.

COP FY27: $825–850/ton (raised from $975–1,000)

High

Q2 delivered $703; byproduct uplift + cost discipline offset ~$50 geopolitical headwinds. Confident in revised range.

EBITDA margin: Industry-leading 62% Q2 (61.3% via PAT calculation); sustained above 60%

High

Structural margin strength from cost position & zinc/silver deficits; commodity volatility risk if prices fall sharply.

FY27 capex: ₹5,000 Cr (sustaining + growth expansion projects)

High

Q2 spent ₹1,900 Cr on track. 250 KTPA zinc + 10 MTPA tailing projects in E&P/mine dev phase; expect acceleration Q3/Q4.

Risks the call surfaced

Ranked by how much they should concern a holder

Commodity price volatility

High

Zinc/silver prices benefit from supply deficits (2026E: 180 KT Zn deficit, 1.44 KT Ag deficit) but subject to monetary policy, geopolitical shocks, global growth slowdown. No price guidance disclosed.

Geopolitical cost pressures

Medium

~$50/ton cost headwind cited in Q2 from geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, tariff shifts. Offset by byproduct upsides but could widen if regional conflicts escalate (Middle East, Ukraine proxies).

Large capex execution risk

Medium

250 KTPA integrated zinc expansion + 10 MTPA tailing reprocessing plant are multi-year, capital-intensive projects. E&P ~95% complete for zinc expansion; mine development underway. No detail on tailing plant phase. Schedule/cost slippage could impact 2x growth timeline.

Silver FY28 guidance vagueness

Low

Silver FY28 guidance highly conditional: 'we can hope to do 730–750 tons' pending debottlenecking projects. No firm commitment, downside if projects slip or underdeliver capacity gains.

Management

Score 8/10. Clear, specific, quantified. Management disclosed detailed COP, production, capex, and hedging numbers. Some deflection on sulfuric acid (byproduct volatility rationale reasonable). ESG/CSR narrative well-integrated but not overbearing. Strong track record: H1 PAT +143% YoY vs guidance reaffirmed/raised. Q2 COP $703 beat prior $975–1,000 by $272–297. Silver 680-ton FY27 on track (341 tons H1, 170/qtr H2 feasible). Capex ₹5,000 Cr on track (₹1,900 Cr Q2).

What to watch next

1 · Q3 FY27
250 KTPA zinc expansion commissioning phase (E&P ~95% complete, mine dev underway)
2 · Q3 FY29
Critical mineral exploration (4 blocks: 3 exploration, 1 REE/Yttrium mining lease) resource definition complete
3 · H2 FY27
Silver FY27 delivery: need ~170 tons/qtr to meet 680-ton guide (H1=341); debottlenecking projects pending

Upside risk: commodity price volatility, geopolitical cost pressures (~$50/ton headwind partly mitigated by byproduct upsides).

Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.