Record PAT growth on strong transmission, energy solutions scaling
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Buy
confidence 7/10
Grade A
Strong Q2 beat prior guidance; ₹87K order book and PPA lock-in support multi-year targets.
Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Very Optimistic
multi-year
Strong execution across transmission (₹87K order book), energy solutions (3,250 MW PPA secured, 14,500 MU Q2 sales), and distribution (Mumbai losses 4.29%) drives +144.8% PAT growth. Asset growth 1.3x-1.4x in 5 years backed by ₹100K+ capex. Key risk: transmission capex execution faces ROW delays in Gujarat; smart metering deployment pace slower than expected in H1.
₹10075.5 Cr
Revenue · +52.8% YoY₹1363.9 Cr
Reported PAT · +144.8% YoYExpanding
Margins · vs guidance: CorroboratedDid the claims hold up?
Total income growing over 50%
METRevenue ₹10,075.5 Cr, YoY +52.8%
EBITDA increasing close to 67%, PAT growth 145%
METPAT growth +144.8% YoY aligns; EBITDA claim uncontradicted
Smart metering 14.8 million meters delivered
METDelivered 14.8M meters with 60% of order book complete
Energy Solutions 14,500 MU sold in Q2
MET3,500 MU long-term contracts + 9,500 MU power trading + 1,500 MU power mgmt
Transmission order book INR87,000 crores
METIncludes Vizag Pendurthi, Satara recently won; figure consistent
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Energy Solutions capacity now quantified
Upgrade3,250 MW PPA locked (2.5 GW MSEDCL + 750 MW AEML) vs prior guidance of 7.5 GW by 2031; near-term execution clearer, long-term target maintained.
Smart metering deployment guidance updated
DowngradeNow 80-90L this year (from 10M original plan implied); balance 40L next year. H1 only 1.3M (slower than required pace), due to customer preference for specific meter types.
Transmission execution timeline refined
NeutralKhavda phase 4 commissioned; WRSR, Halvad, Navinal advancing but ROW delays in Gujarat require resolution with state govt; no capex guidance change but timeline visibility improved.
ESG moat established
UpgradeNow ranked #1 globally in S&P Global Electric Utility category (90/100), exceeding industry avg of 40; adds long-term competitive positioning.
The Q&A
Analysts pressed on transmission capex acceleration (capex not revised despite delays), smart metering deployment pace (acknowledged but attributed to customer preferences, not capacity), and energy solutions margin volatility (management defended long-term PPA strategy). CEO held firm on guidance; no concessions offered.
IntelliSmart M&A timing — Manish Somaiya, Cantor
AnsweredCCI approval pending, expected very soon. Transaction to close within next one month once CCI approval received.
Smart metering H1 deployment — Manish Somaiya, Cantor
AnsweredH1 deployment lower due to customer preference for specific meter types (Maharashtra HT consumer meters, Bihar tagging pending). Now with new meter types approved, deployment expected to increase significantly in H2.
Transmission H2 capex drivers — Manish Somaiya, Cantor
PartialExpecting ₹8,000-9,000 Cr capex in H2 depending on weather. Key projects: WRSR, Khavda, Halvad, Mahan phase 1; expected to commission 3-4 projects by year-end.
Energy Solutions PPA strategy — Rohan Mehta, Strateasy
Answered2,500 MW MSEDCL PPA secured; 750 MW AEML PPA approved. Will scale to 7,000-8,000 MW aggregate capacity (supply + consumer) over 3-4 years. Currently 3,250 MW tied up.
Transmission order book coverage — Mahesh Patil, ICICI Securities
AnsweredYes, includes Vizag Pendurthi and Satara (recently won). These two interstate projects important for renewable integration and data center load.
Transmission project commissioning — Mahesh Patil, ICICI Securities
PartialKhavda phase 4 element commissioned recently. Khavda-Halwad progressing fast; Halvad only 50 locations pending. WRSR substation complete, line work pending. Navinal might spillover to next year. Mahan phase 1 this year, phase 2 Q1 FY28. ROW issues being resolved with Govt of Gujarat and central govt.
Energy Solutions volume composition — Mahesh Patil, ICICI Securities
AnsweredOut of 14,500 MU in Q2: 3,500 MU position take/sell (long-term), 9,500 MU power trading on behalf of others, 1,500 MU power management services.
P&L deferred assets — Mahesh Patil, ICICI Securities
AnsweredMAT assets from MEGPTCL and ATIL entities going to new tax regime. Section 62 assets of ₹1,500 Cr; corresponding adjustable recoverable liability created; no P&L impact.
Energy Solutions sourcing strategy — Nikhil Nigania, Bernstein
AnsweredSourcing mix reflects consumption profile; will include solar, wind, BESS, thermal, PSP, and whatnot. ~50% of 2,500 MW MSEDCL PPA covered via BESS sourcing. Diverse sources to manage margin stability.
Trading EBITDA breakdown — Shirom Kapur, Jefferies
AnsweredLong-term contract sales ~₹3,688 Cr (on margin basis). Power trading avg realization ₹5.75/unit; exchange margin ₹0.02-0.03. Margins: long-term ₹52 Cr, C&I trading ₹57 Cr, power mgmt ₹32 Cr. Total sales ~₹3,800 Cr.
Transmission capex guidance revision — Shirom Kapur, Jefferies
PartialStill hopeful to complete within plan. Expecting next 6 months will be fair season. Don't see requirement currently to revise capex guideline.
Smart metering annual target — Shirom Kapur, Jefferies
AnsweredPlanning 80-90 lakh meters this year; balance 40 lakh next year. Pace will increase with new meter types approved for Maharashtra and Bihar.
Energy Solutions portfolio ramp — Vishal Periwal, PL Capital
PartialExpected steady increase as we scale tie-ups on both sides (supply and consumer). Margins will reflect PPA profiles. Diverse consumer base across industries and geographies will support healthy margin profile.
Smart metering tender opportunity — Vishal Periwal, PL Capital
AnsweredMarket right now still untapped for large capacities. Current auctions in market; already participating. Portfolio can scale leveraging market growth. Positioned to tap upcoming opportunity.
Battery capacity acquisition from Adani Green — Apoorva Bahadur, IIFL Capital
AnsweredIn active discussions with Adani Green. If attractive at market benchmarks, AESL would engage. No fixed tariff (₹4.85/unit) constraint; decisions based on market value.
China solar export ban impact — Vin C, Phillip Capital
AnsweredNo meaningful equipment bans in effect. Transmission opportunity multi-faceted: from renewable growth, from data center / consumption-side demand, from brownfield thermal upgrades (100+ GW thermal capacity coming), from state grid upgrades. Not dependent on solar capacity alone.
Adani Green curtailment risk — Ishan, Antique
AnsweredMSEDCL PPA: take-or-pay, AESL pays for scheduled power. No thermal compulsion initially; can mix sources. If power not scheduled, risk with Adani Green (off-taker). AEML 750 MW similarly structured. No Adani Power tie-up currently.
Guidance
Multi-year asset base growth 1.3x-1.4x in 5 years
HighDriven by ₹100,000+ Cr capex locked in; current base ₹83,000 Cr; capex deployment on track
Energy Solutions scale 7,000-8,000 MW capacity in 3-4 years
Medium3,250 MW PPA already secured; merchant capacity addition contingent on market conditions and execution
Transmission margins stable on long-duration contracts
HighINR87,000 Cr order book provides revenue visibility; capex deployment locks asset returns
Energy Solutions EBITDA margins INR0.80-1.0 per unit on steady-state basis
MediumCurrently mixing long-term PPAs (higher margin) with merchant capacity (margin volatile); long-term aim is stability, not volatility maximization
Transmission capex INR8,000-9,000 Cr in H2 FY27
MediumH1 was ₹14,000 Cr (weather-impacted); H2 expected lower but ramp to year-end on project commissioning
Total capex INR100,000+ Cr over 4-5 years
HighAlready locked in; fully funded through equity and debt
Transmission capitalization INR8,000-9,000 Cr (FY27), then INR10,000 Cr (FY28)
MediumKhavda, WRSR, Halvad, Mahan commissioning will drive capex cycles; will spike after HVDC projects commissioned
Risks the call surfaced
Transmission capex execution
MediumMultiple projects at different stages (Khavda, WRSR, Halvad, Mahan, Navinal) facing monsoon delays and ROW challenges in Gujarat. H1 capex ₹14,000 Cr (above plan due to weather). Capex guidance not revised despite delays.
Smart metering deployment
MediumH1 deployment only 1.3M meters in Q2 vs higher planned pace. Maharashtra distribution focused on HT consumer meters; Bihar tagging pending. Now guiding 80-90L meters this year (vs 10M+ implied earlier). Deployed 14.8M so far out of 2.46 Cr order book.
Energy Solutions scale-up
MediumNeed to scale from 3,250 MW (secured PPA) to 7,000-8,000 MW over 3-4 years. Currently 14,500 MU sold in Q2; merchant capacity (9,500 MU + 1,500 MU services) exposed to market conditions. Management explicitly states unwilling to accept major volatility in C&I profitability.
Adani Green curtailment risk
LowAESL energy contracts are take-or-pay for scheduled power. If power not scheduled / grid backs down, Adani Green (off-taker) bears cost. MSEDCL PPA starts Feb 2027; any scheduling issues could impact supply reliability and economics.
Currency and interest rate risk
LowTotal debt ₹51,000 Cr; ECB ~10% (₹5,100 Cr). Currency exposure on ECB could impact P&L if INR depreciates. Interest rate on variable portions could rise.
Management
Score 7/10. Clear on strategy and long-term targets; detailed on execution metrics (order book, capex, PPA contracts). Transparent on challenges (ROW delays, smart metering pace, energy solutions margin philosophy). Appropriate hedging on uncertain items (thermal requirements for MSEDCL, curtailment risk transfers). Strong track record in Q2 (+52.8% revenue, +144.8% PAT). Transmission order book maintained at ₹87K Cr. Energy Solutions capacity lock-in accelerating (3.25 GW now). Smart metering slower but visibility on path. Asset base on track for growth.
1 · Oct 2026 - Nov 2026
Intellismart IntelliSmart CCI approval expected; transaction close within one month
2 · End FY27 (Mar 2027)
3-4 transmission projects (WRSR, Khavda phase 4, Halvad, Mahan phase 1) expected commissioned
3 · Feb 2027
2,500 MW MSEDCL PPA capacity starts deployment (contractually secured)
Key risk: transmission capex execution faces ROW delays in Gujarat; smart metering deployment pace slower than expected in H1.
Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.