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ADANI TRANSMISSION LTD · QQ2 FY-2027 · THE CALL

Record PAT growth on strong transmission, energy solutions scaling

The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.

Q2 FY27 resultsADANIENSOLAdani Transmission Ltd30 Oct 2026 · 6 min read
Verdict

Buy

confidence 7/10

Credibility

Grade A

Strong Q2 beat prior guidance; ₹87K order book and PPA lock-in support multi-year targets.

Short-term outlook

Optimistic

next 1–2 quarters

Long-term outlook

Very Optimistic

multi-year

Strong execution across transmission (₹87K order book), energy solutions (3,250 MW PPA secured, 14,500 MU Q2 sales), and distribution (Mumbai losses 4.29%) drives +144.8% PAT growth. Asset growth 1.3x-1.4x in 5 years backed by ₹100K+ capex. Key risk: transmission capex execution faces ROW delays in Gujarat; smart metering deployment pace slower than expected in H1.

₹10075.5 Cr

Revenue · +52.8% YoY

₹1363.9 Cr

Reported PAT · +144.8% YoY

Expanding

Margins · vs guidance: Corroborated

Did the claims hold up?

Management's claims vs. the numbers

Total income growing over 50%

MET

Revenue ₹10,075.5 Cr, YoY +52.8%

EBITDA increasing close to 67%, PAT growth 145%

MET

PAT growth +144.8% YoY aligns; EBITDA claim uncontradicted

Smart metering 14.8 million meters delivered

MET

Delivered 14.8M meters with 60% of order book complete

Energy Solutions 14,500 MU sold in Q2

MET

3,500 MU long-term contracts + 9,500 MU power trading + 1,500 MU power mgmt

Transmission order book INR87,000 crores

MET

Includes Vizag Pendurthi, Satara recently won; figure consistent

Earnings quality

What changed since the last call

Deltas vs. the prior call

Energy Solutions capacity now quantified

Upgrade

3,250 MW PPA locked (2.5 GW MSEDCL + 750 MW AEML) vs prior guidance of 7.5 GW by 2031; near-term execution clearer, long-term target maintained.

Smart metering deployment guidance updated

Downgrade

Now 80-90L this year (from 10M original plan implied); balance 40L next year. H1 only 1.3M (slower than required pace), due to customer preference for specific meter types.

Transmission execution timeline refined

Neutral

Khavda phase 4 commissioned; WRSR, Halvad, Navinal advancing but ROW delays in Gujarat require resolution with state govt; no capex guidance change but timeline visibility improved.

ESG moat established

Upgrade

Now ranked #1 globally in S&P Global Electric Utility category (90/100), exceeding industry avg of 40; adds long-term competitive positioning.

The Q&A

Analysts pressed on transmission capex acceleration (capex not revised despite delays), smart metering deployment pace (acknowledged but attributed to customer preferences, not capacity), and energy solutions margin volatility (management defended long-term PPA strategy). CEO held firm on guidance; no concessions offered.

The exchanges that mattered

IntelliSmart M&A timing — Manish Somaiya, Cantor

Answered

CCI approval pending, expected very soon. Transaction to close within next one month once CCI approval received.

Smart metering H1 deployment — Manish Somaiya, Cantor

Answered

H1 deployment lower due to customer preference for specific meter types (Maharashtra HT consumer meters, Bihar tagging pending). Now with new meter types approved, deployment expected to increase significantly in H2.

Transmission H2 capex drivers — Manish Somaiya, Cantor

Partial

Expecting ₹8,000-9,000 Cr capex in H2 depending on weather. Key projects: WRSR, Khavda, Halvad, Mahan phase 1; expected to commission 3-4 projects by year-end.

Energy Solutions PPA strategy — Rohan Mehta, Strateasy

Answered

2,500 MW MSEDCL PPA secured; 750 MW AEML PPA approved. Will scale to 7,000-8,000 MW aggregate capacity (supply + consumer) over 3-4 years. Currently 3,250 MW tied up.

Transmission order book coverage — Mahesh Patil, ICICI Securities

Answered

Yes, includes Vizag Pendurthi and Satara (recently won). These two interstate projects important for renewable integration and data center load.

Transmission project commissioning — Mahesh Patil, ICICI Securities

Partial

Khavda phase 4 element commissioned recently. Khavda-Halwad progressing fast; Halvad only 50 locations pending. WRSR substation complete, line work pending. Navinal might spillover to next year. Mahan phase 1 this year, phase 2 Q1 FY28. ROW issues being resolved with Govt of Gujarat and central govt.

Energy Solutions volume composition — Mahesh Patil, ICICI Securities

Answered

Out of 14,500 MU in Q2: 3,500 MU position take/sell (long-term), 9,500 MU power trading on behalf of others, 1,500 MU power management services.

P&L deferred assets — Mahesh Patil, ICICI Securities

Answered

MAT assets from MEGPTCL and ATIL entities going to new tax regime. Section 62 assets of ₹1,500 Cr; corresponding adjustable recoverable liability created; no P&L impact.

Energy Solutions sourcing strategy — Nikhil Nigania, Bernstein

Answered

Sourcing mix reflects consumption profile; will include solar, wind, BESS, thermal, PSP, and whatnot. ~50% of 2,500 MW MSEDCL PPA covered via BESS sourcing. Diverse sources to manage margin stability.

Trading EBITDA breakdown — Shirom Kapur, Jefferies

Answered

Long-term contract sales ~₹3,688 Cr (on margin basis). Power trading avg realization ₹5.75/unit; exchange margin ₹0.02-0.03. Margins: long-term ₹52 Cr, C&I trading ₹57 Cr, power mgmt ₹32 Cr. Total sales ~₹3,800 Cr.

Transmission capex guidance revision — Shirom Kapur, Jefferies

Partial

Still hopeful to complete within plan. Expecting next 6 months will be fair season. Don't see requirement currently to revise capex guideline.

Smart metering annual target — Shirom Kapur, Jefferies

Answered

Planning 80-90 lakh meters this year; balance 40 lakh next year. Pace will increase with new meter types approved for Maharashtra and Bihar.

Energy Solutions portfolio ramp — Vishal Periwal, PL Capital

Partial

Expected steady increase as we scale tie-ups on both sides (supply and consumer). Margins will reflect PPA profiles. Diverse consumer base across industries and geographies will support healthy margin profile.

Smart metering tender opportunity — Vishal Periwal, PL Capital

Answered

Market right now still untapped for large capacities. Current auctions in market; already participating. Portfolio can scale leveraging market growth. Positioned to tap upcoming opportunity.

Battery capacity acquisition from Adani Green — Apoorva Bahadur, IIFL Capital

Answered

In active discussions with Adani Green. If attractive at market benchmarks, AESL would engage. No fixed tariff (₹4.85/unit) constraint; decisions based on market value.

China solar export ban impact — Vin C, Phillip Capital

Answered

No meaningful equipment bans in effect. Transmission opportunity multi-faceted: from renewable growth, from data center / consumption-side demand, from brownfield thermal upgrades (100+ GW thermal capacity coming), from state grid upgrades. Not dependent on solar capacity alone.

Adani Green curtailment risk — Ishan, Antique

Answered

MSEDCL PPA: take-or-pay, AESL pays for scheduled power. No thermal compulsion initially; can mix sources. If power not scheduled, risk with Adani Green (off-taker). AEML 750 MW similarly structured. No Adani Power tie-up currently.

Guidance

Forward guidance and management's confidence

Multi-year asset base growth 1.3x-1.4x in 5 years

High

Driven by ₹100,000+ Cr capex locked in; current base ₹83,000 Cr; capex deployment on track

Energy Solutions scale 7,000-8,000 MW capacity in 3-4 years

Medium

3,250 MW PPA already secured; merchant capacity addition contingent on market conditions and execution

Transmission margins stable on long-duration contracts

High

INR87,000 Cr order book provides revenue visibility; capex deployment locks asset returns

Energy Solutions EBITDA margins INR0.80-1.0 per unit on steady-state basis

Medium

Currently mixing long-term PPAs (higher margin) with merchant capacity (margin volatile); long-term aim is stability, not volatility maximization

Transmission capex INR8,000-9,000 Cr in H2 FY27

Medium

H1 was ₹14,000 Cr (weather-impacted); H2 expected lower but ramp to year-end on project commissioning

Total capex INR100,000+ Cr over 4-5 years

High

Already locked in; fully funded through equity and debt

Transmission capitalization INR8,000-9,000 Cr (FY27), then INR10,000 Cr (FY28)

Medium

Khavda, WRSR, Halvad, Mahan commissioning will drive capex cycles; will spike after HVDC projects commissioned

Risks the call surfaced

Ranked by how much they should concern a holder

Transmission capex execution

Medium

Multiple projects at different stages (Khavda, WRSR, Halvad, Mahan, Navinal) facing monsoon delays and ROW challenges in Gujarat. H1 capex ₹14,000 Cr (above plan due to weather). Capex guidance not revised despite delays.

Smart metering deployment

Medium

H1 deployment only 1.3M meters in Q2 vs higher planned pace. Maharashtra distribution focused on HT consumer meters; Bihar tagging pending. Now guiding 80-90L meters this year (vs 10M+ implied earlier). Deployed 14.8M so far out of 2.46 Cr order book.

Energy Solutions scale-up

Medium

Need to scale from 3,250 MW (secured PPA) to 7,000-8,000 MW over 3-4 years. Currently 14,500 MU sold in Q2; merchant capacity (9,500 MU + 1,500 MU services) exposed to market conditions. Management explicitly states unwilling to accept major volatility in C&I profitability.

Adani Green curtailment risk

Low

AESL energy contracts are take-or-pay for scheduled power. If power not scheduled / grid backs down, Adani Green (off-taker) bears cost. MSEDCL PPA starts Feb 2027; any scheduling issues could impact supply reliability and economics.

Currency and interest rate risk

Low

Total debt ₹51,000 Cr; ECB ~10% (₹5,100 Cr). Currency exposure on ECB could impact P&L if INR depreciates. Interest rate on variable portions could rise.

Management

Score 7/10. Clear on strategy and long-term targets; detailed on execution metrics (order book, capex, PPA contracts). Transparent on challenges (ROW delays, smart metering pace, energy solutions margin philosophy). Appropriate hedging on uncertain items (thermal requirements for MSEDCL, curtailment risk transfers). Strong track record in Q2 (+52.8% revenue, +144.8% PAT). Transmission order book maintained at ₹87K Cr. Energy Solutions capacity lock-in accelerating (3.25 GW now). Smart metering slower but visibility on path. Asset base on track for growth.

What to watch next
  • 1 · Oct 2026 - Nov 2026

    Intellismart IntelliSmart CCI approval expected; transaction close within one month

  • 2 · End FY27 (Mar 2027)

    3-4 transmission projects (WRSR, Khavda phase 4, Halvad, Mahan phase 1) expected commissioned

  • 3 · Feb 2027

    2,500 MW MSEDCL PPA capacity starts deployment (contractually secured)

Key risk: transmission capex execution faces ROW delays in Gujarat; smart metering deployment pace slower than expected in H1.

Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.