Record profit on crude surge; gas momentum stalled despite long-term vision

Delivered result confirms ₹4,026 Cr, corroborated

Delivered result shows YoY growth 47.3%, but refers consolidated revenue; oil YoY 11% aligns with 0.95 MMT claim

Specific daily figure not in delivered result, but consistent with 0.95 MMT quarterly run-rate

Includes USD2 inventory gain; normalized USD33.95. Material but dependent on crude-product spread, not ops excellence alone

Delivered result shows gas production flat/declining, YoY gas down 8%. FY29 5 BCM target depends on DFL completion and customer ramp (execution risk)

Q1 achieved 0.95 MMT (+11% YoY); targeting ~1 MMT each quarter, implying FY27 ~3.9-4.0 MMT (vs prior ~3.6 baseline). FY29 explicit target 4.2 MMT (main fields + Rajasthan).

Gas output down 8% YoY (0.52 BCM vs 0.57 BCM) due to BCPL/NEEPCO challenges. FY28 guidance only 3.8 BCM (vs prior hopes for faster ramp). FY29 5 BCM depends on DFL + NRL demand.

New Samudra Manthan scheme: ₹675 Cr per deep-water well subsidy, ₹10,000 Cr infrastructure support. Rigs arriving June-July 2027. First well Mahanadi Dec 2026 (sponsored ₹800 Cr).

Prior indication Q1 FY27; now Oct-Nov 2026 for CDU/VDU, rest by March 2027. Ramp to 75% capacity by end of Q4 FY28 (slower than initially suggested).

FY27 targeting 42 exploratory + 57 development wells (99 total, vs 74 in FY26). On track with prior 100-well ambition. Onshore internally funded; offshore supported by Samudra Manthan.

Yes, targeting close to 1 MMT per quarter this year via well intervention, workover optimization, HWPMB systematic improvements. Increased to 11,017 MT/day by Aug 3. May touch 4 MMT FY27 if ramp continues.

FY27-28 flattish due to BCPL/NEEPCO shutdowns. Big jump FY28-29 Q1 when DFL comes. By end of FY28, all facilities done; by 2028 gas to rest of India. December 2027 target for additional 3.5-4 MMSCMD. NRL adds 1.5 MMSCMD by FY28/29 Q2-Q3.

FY27 targeting 42 exploratory + 57 development wells (vs 22+52 FY26). Onshore from own resources; offshore backed by Samudra Manthan (₹675 Cr/well deep-water, ₹10K Cr infrastructure). First rig June-July 2027. Q1 capex ₹3,050 Cr (exploration ₹1,230 Cr). FY27 budget ₹8,600 Cr.

USD35.95 reported includes USD2 inventory gain; normalized USD33.95. Spread driven by diesel-crude and MS-crude differentials, extremely high this quarter. Typical GRM USD7-8. Discounts to OMCs (INR13→3 petrol, INR10→nil diesel) also netted off.

CDU/VDU mechanically completed, OISD/PESO inspections done, ready for startup. DHDT+SRU by Oct-Nov 2026 at best. Rest by March 31, 2027. Production ramps in graded manner from FY28; hit 75% capacity by Q4 FY28 (75% of 9 MMT = 6.75 MMT).

Entire ROU acquired except 8 km. Good govt support (4 states). Target mechanical completion October 2026, commission December 2026.

₹30K Cr spent so far. Will complete refinery at ₹34-35K Cr, PPU at ₹7.2-7.3K Cr total. NRL debt ₹19K Cr (of ₹30K spent). Consolidated group debt ₹37,233 Cr (incl. USD1.4B Mozambique + USD500M Singapore bond).

Drilling 4th well by December 2026. By March ~3.5 months assess 4th well. Appraisal wells for VJ-2 and VJ-3 after Jan interpretation. By February decide well count. Hydro frac testing VJ-1 August; final call by September.

BCPL shuts down periodically; NEEPCO prefers hydro over gas. Subsidy constraints. Once DFL/DNPL live, will export to West/rest of country. Assam Gas Company increasing domestic CGD. Pipeline is solution, not customer offtake management.

Not windfall tax; SAED-related. INR13→3/liter petrol, INR10→nil diesel in Q1. Discounts calibrated month-on-month per crude-product spread. GRM would be much higher without discounts (exact number not quantified).

Targeting 4.2 MMT by FY29 (main fields + Rajasthan ramp-up). Depends on near-field exploration. Beyond 4.2 possible but contingent on own exploration success. No formal revision above 4.2.

FY28 target 3.8 BCM. Currently shutting down 30-60 wells due to lack offtake. Once DFL live, will open wells. Production will ramp automatically. New gas will be new-well-price (APM expires).

NRL in expansion mode; plants getting commissioned expensed now, then absorbed into opex. Per-barrel opex today USD4.5-5, expected to fall to USD3.5 once stabilized with high throughput.

GST royalty ₹2,500 Cr without interest; court gave 6 weeks to settle (by October 2026). Already provided for, no P&L impact Q1, but Q2 cash outflow and disclosure. Assam land tax: govt undertook to repeal in state legislature; shown as contingent liability, no P&L impact.

Vijayapuram 1 spend ₹1,000-1,050 Cr. VJ-3 appraisal planned after 3D interpretation. If not in proper position, can side-track up to 1-2 km horizontally. VJ-1 final call after hydro frac testing (August).

Commodity-linked; EBITDA margin 54% at current crude. At USD70-80/bbl, margins compress significantly.

Dependent on MS-diesel-crude spreads; can compress if crude rallies faster than products. Discounts calibrated per SAED formula.

Gas offtake constraints will keep OPM pressure near-term; long-term (5 BCM) upside not yet in margin.

NRL expansion ₹34-35K Cr (₹30K spent, ₹4-5K remaining). PPU ₹7.2-7.3K Cr. Offshore drilling accelerating (Samudra Manthan subsidies).

Phased. March 31, 2027 target for NRL capex completion.

PAT +97% YoY driven by crude +49% (USD66→99). Standalone margin = 36% at USD99; at USD70 margin compresses to ~15-20%. Q1 result not repeatable if crude normalizes.

Gas production DOWN 8% YoY (0.52 BCM vs 0.57 BCM) despite optimistic FY29 5 BCM target. BCPL under subsidy pressure, NEEPCO prefers hydro. DFL target December 2026 (still uncertain). If delayed beyond March 2027, FY28 3.8 BCM target at risk.

CDU/VDU mechanically completed but still need OISD/PESO inspections before startup. DHDT+SRU targeted Oct-Nov 2026 'at best'. Paradip pipeline 8 km ROU still pending. Any delay pushes ramp-up beyond March 2027 and hurts FY28 capacity utilization targets (75% = 6.75 MMT).

VJ-1 held on due to tight sand; now testing with hydro frac (August 2026 completion). VJ-3 testing just completed in July (post-Q1). Risk: wells may not be commercial at size. Spent ₹1,000-1,050 Cr on VJ-1 alone; further capex on appraisal wells uncertain.

GST royalty ₹2,500 Cr (without interest) must be settled by October 2026 (6 weeks from August). Already provisioned, so no Q1 P&L impact, but Q2 cash outflow material. Assam land tax: govt undertook to repeal, shown as contingent liability; if repealed, no impact; if upheld, additional ₹x (quantum not disclosed).