Strong growth masks margin compression; core PAT concerns
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Hold
confidence 6/10
Grade B
Met or exceeded most FY27 guidance (credit growth 21% vs 12-14%, NIM 3.05% vs 2.8-2.9%). Acknowledged DTA one-time charge clearly. Cost-to-income will normalize from 37% to ~50%.
Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Optimistic
multi-year
Strong business growth (credit +21%, deposits +11%) and improved asset quality (NNPA 0.25%) overshadowed by revenue growth lag (8.7%) and sequential PAT decline (-18.1%). Operating profit inflated by ₹800 Cr non-recurring TWO recovery; core earnings questioned. Guidance maintained conservatively despite actuals, signalling no acceleration expected.
₹6996 Cr
Revenue · +8.7% YoY₹656.3 Cr
Reported PAT · +8% YoYCompressing
Margins · vs guidance: MixedDid the claims hold up?
Excellent business growth, Advances 21.18%, Deposits 11.28%
OVERSTATEDRevenue 8.7% YoY; credit grew 21% but revenue lagged significantly
Operating Profit grew 79.8% YoY
OVERSTATEDIncludes ₹1,018 Cr TWO recovery, ₹800 Cr non-recurring; core growth much lower
Net Profit 8% growth reflects profitability improvement
METDepressed by ₹1,237 Cr one-time DTA charge; regular tax ~₹625 Cr only
Surpassed most guidance; credit growth 21% vs 12-14% target
METDelivered 21% vs 12-14% but guidance NOT raised, described as conservative
NIM guidance 2.8-2.9% maintained
METDelivered 3.05%, above guidance; cost of funds 4.36%, down YoY
Asset quality improved, GNPA 2.08%, NNPA 0.25%
METGNPA -55 bps YoY, NNPA -20 bps YoY, PCR 97.85%; all guidance targets met
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Credit growth delivery
UpgradeDelivered 21% vs guided 12-14%; guidance not raised, called conservative. Pipeline ₹15,000 Cr.
NIM trajectory
UpgradeReached 3.05% vs 2.8-2.9% guidance; cost of funds 4.36%, down YoY from deposit repricing
Revenue growth momentum
DowngradeOnly 8.7% YoY despite 21% credit growth; margin pressure evident, not reflected in prior calls
Cost-to-income normalization
Downgrade37.49% this quarter but will rise to ~50% as TWO recovery won't repeat; efficiency gains temporary
The Q&A
Analysts pushed on credit growth revision (Ashok Ajmera: should it be 16-18%?). MD held firm on 12-14% guidance, said will review after Q2. On private sector competition pressure, MD deflected to 'all are competitors, we're growing.' Mixed reception—growth acknowledged but profitability questioned.
Cost and profitability guidance — Sushil Choksey, Antique Stock Broking
AnsweredCost of funds 4.36%, stable after deposit repricing. Cost-to-income will be below 50% for FY27 (normalized). NIM 2.8-2.9% target, currently 3.05%. Credit growth 12-14% maintained with ₹15,000 Cr pipeline.
Portfolio rebalancing, low-yield advances — Sushil Choksey
AnsweredNo IBPC exposure. Focusing RAM sector (25.27% growth, retail 27.3%, agri 30%, MSME 19%). Corporate advances 17% growth. Yield maintenance strategy ongoing.
Regional growth opportunity — Sushil Choksey
Answered400 branches in state, 5 zonal offices. Seeing opportunities in infrastructure, industrial, steel, railway sectors. Connecting with corporates in Calcutta. Prepared to capitalize on state growth.
Tax regime change impact — Niteen Dharmawat
PartialMoved to new regime (mandatory). DTA charge ₹1,237 Cr one-time. Roughly ROA could have been over 1% had charge not occurred. Not formally recalculated.
Competition sources — Niteen Dharmawat
DodgedAll are competitors. View as opportunity—market expands with multiple players. Have full product suite. 35,000 Cr digital balance sheet. 70% fixed deposits via digital.
Growth and risk areas — Niteen Dharmawat
AnsweredGrowth: deposits, CASA, RAM (home 20%, vehicle 65% YoY, MSME 19-20%, agri/gold loans). Corporate: infrastructure, renewable energy, transmission, steel, cement. No stress or risk seen in any sector currently.
Credit growth target revision — Ashok Ajmera
AnsweredAcknowledge 21% actual vs 12-14% conservative guidance. Endeavor to grow above industry. Will review after Q2 results. Maintaining guidance now.
ECLGS scheme participation — Ashok Ajmera
AnsweredSanctioned ₹2,150 Cr, disbursed ₹1,700 Cr (only ~50% of eligible). No stress in MSME accounts. Slippage 0.63% annualized. SMA book ₹1,009 Cr (0.36% of advances). All contained.
ECL provisioning for transition — Ashok Ajmera
AnsweredPreliminary assessment for April 1, 2027 transition done. Already created 60% of requirement. Plan to create remaining 40% over 4-5 quarters. IT and knowledge partners in place.
Loan pricing and competition — Ashlesh
AnsweredRetail: no pressure, best rates maintained (linked to Repo). MCLR increased 5 bps to 8.80%. Corporate: yield improvements in some categories. Bond-credit rate trade-off determines demand.
TWO recovery and JP Associates — Ashlesh
AnsweredNo recovery from JP Associates account. No recoveries from SRs for this account.
Cost of deposits increase and corporate growth — Ashlesh
AnsweredCost of deposits: reclassification of deposits/borrowings between international and Indian books. Overall cost of funds declined. Corporate book: good demand in working capital availments. Trade-off with bond market creates opportunity.
Fee income decline and other commission — Ashlesh
AnsweredProcessing fees: changed from lumpsum upfront to actual charging; Q1 has fewer renewals. Will normalize. Other commission: PSLC sale ₹2,000 Cr, earned ₹55 Cr commission, plus normal growth.
Guidance
No explicit FY27 revenue target; credit 12-14%, deposit 10-12% reaffirmed
MediumGuidance described as 'conservative' by MD. Credit growth 21% actual suggests revenue may outpace, but revenue +8.7% lags credit +21%
NIM 2.8-2.9%; management says will maintain above that level
HighCurrently 3.05%, cost of funds 4.36% down. Yield on advances stable. Cost of deposits stable after repricing
GIFT City branch opening next month; no other formal capex targets disclosed
MediumDigital initiatives ongoing; Omni-Channel and Cash Management Services in pipeline
Risks the call surfaced
Margin compression
HighRevenue +8.7% YoY vs credit +21% YoY suggests yield pressure, product mix shift, or deposit repricing not offset by advances growth
Profitability deterioration
HighPAT declined -18.1% QoQ despite revenue +5.1% QoQ, indicating cost/provision pressures overwhelming growth. Normalized cost-to-income will rise from 37% to ~50%
One-time earnings dependency
HighOperating profit +79.8% driven by ₹1,018 Cr TWO recovery (₹800 Cr non-recurring). Without this, operating profit growth would be low. Core NII +16.85% is the true baseline.
Geopolitical/ECLGS risk
MediumECLGS 5.0 exposure ₹2,150 Cr sanctioned, ₹1,700 Cr disbursed. Geopolitical stress (Iran-US war) flagged by analyst. Management says no stress seen yet, but early.
Tax provision volatility
MediumOne-time DTA charge ₹1,237 Cr from tax regime shift to 25% (new regime). Regular tax provision ~₹625 Cr only. Future quarters will show higher effective tax rate.
Management
Score 7/10. Clear on one-time items (TWO, DTA); transparent on conservative guidance. Somewhat evasive on private sector competition pressure but provided detail on digital initiatives and growth drivers. Credit growth 21% vs 12-14% guidance (beat). Deposit 11.28% vs 10-12% (beat). NIM 3.05% vs 2.8-2.9% (beat). Asset quality targets met. Cost-to-income will normalize to ~50%. Track record credible.
1 · Q2 FY27 results
Guidance review; expect potential upgrade if credit/revenue trends sustain
2 · Aug 2026
GIFT City branch opening; international lending expansion
3 · H2 FY27
Omni-Channel platform launch and Cash Management Services launch
Guidance maintained conservatively despite actuals, signalling no acceleration expected.
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