IRM Energy: PAT surges 143% YoY on margin expansion; volume growth of 8% trails guidance
PAT +142.86% YoY · revenue +24.27% · margins expanding
₹354.75 Cr
+24.27% YoY
₹33.81 Cr
+142.86% YoY
9.39%
+4.7pp YoY
₹8.23
IRM Energy's consolidated PAT for Q1 FY27 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) came in at ₹33.81 Cr, up 142.9% YoY (₹13.92 Cr in Q1 FY26) and 165.1% QoQ (₹12.75 Cr in Q4 FY26), on revenue from operations of ₹354.75 Cr, up 24.3% YoY and 16.7% QoQ. Standalone PAT of ₹34.32 Cr (+140% YoY) tracked closely with the consolidated number — the small ~1.5% gap comes from a ₹0.51 Cr share of losses at joint ventures/associates, not a divergence in the core business. Both statements are unaudited but reviewed by the statutory auditor.
Q1 FY-2027 vs prior quarters
The growth was almost entirely margin-led rather than volume-led. Total sales volume grew just 8% YoY to 58.94 mmscm (58.14 mmscm in Q4 FY26), with CNG — the primary growth engine — up 22% YoY and 12% QoQ to 39.33 mmscm, while industrial & commercial PNG volumes fell 15% YoY and QoQ to 17.27 mmscm after a March 2026 government order capped industrial gas supply at 80% of the past six months' average consumption, citing West Asia-driven LNG supply disruption. Despite the volume miss, EBITDA/SCM more than doubled to ₹11.38 from ₹6.22 a year ago and ₹6.09 last quarter, driving core operating margin (EBITDA less other income, over revenue) to 17.4% from 9.1% YoY and net margin (PAT/total income) to 9.4% from 4.7% YoY — a clear expansion on both counts, with the improvement coming off gas cost/pricing rather than opex, since employee costs (₹5.88 Cr) and other expenses (₹36.74 Cr) were roughly flat YoY.
The stock went into the print at ₹293, up 12.8% over the past month of trading.
For context: this is the second-highest quarterly PAT of the last 6 quarters.
Management guides for strong double-digit volume growth in FY27, with expectations of potentially 30%+, driven by aggressive infrastructure expansion, particularly over INR 150 crore of CapEx in the Namakkal & Trichy GA and the addition of 36 new CNG stations. Despite geopolitical volatility and cost pressures, the com
— This quarter: missed
Against its own May 2026 concall guidance — "potentially 30%+" volume growth in FY27 alongside EBITDA/SCM of ₹5.3-5.5 — IRM Energy is running well behind on the volume leg (8% YoY actual) but has blown past the margin leg (₹11.38 actual). No published Street estimates specific to this quarter's print were found; the only consensus data point available is a broader FY27 EPS growth expectation of 12-18% (Univest), well below the 140%+ PAT growth actually delivered, though that estimate pre-dates this result and isn't a like-for-like quarterly comparison — so vsStreet is marked unknown rather than a false beat/miss call. The company's own business note attributes the 24% net revenue growth to "increase in sales volume by 8% and balance on account of increase in sale price," consistent with the reported numbers. Alongside the results, the Board extended the deadline to utilise ₹158.72 Cr of unspent IPO proceeds (earmarked for Namakkal & Tiruchirappalli CGD capex) to March 2028 from September 2026, added 3,328 domestic PNG and 93 commercial connections plus 3 new CNG stations, and recommended M/s. Sorab S. Engineer & Co as statutory auditor for FY27-31 in place of the outgoing Mukesh M. Shah & Co.
W1
Industrial PNG regulatory curtailment (80% cap on past-6-month consumption) — this quarter cut industrial/commercial volumes 15% YoY; watch for easing or extension
W2
Volume growth trajectory toward management's '30%+' FY27 target from the current 8% YoY pace, as the 36 planned new CNG stations and Namakkal/Trichy capex ramp up
W3
EBITDA/SCM sustainability at ₹11.38 versus the ₹5.3-5.5 guided range — a reversion toward guidance would sharply slow PAT growth even with volume recovery
Source figures in ₹ Million, converted to ₹ Crore (÷10); consolidated PAT (₹33.81cr) sits ~1.5% below standalone (₹34.32cr) purely due to a ₹0.51cr share of JV/associate losses (Venuka Polymers, Farm Gas, Ni-Hon Cylinders) — auditor emphasis-of-matter notes flag overdue CRPS/loan recoveries from these entities but do not qualify the opinion.
Record profit windfall masks structural volume miss and margin non-sustainability
IRM Energy delivered ₹354.7 Crore revenue (+24% YoY) and ₹33.8 Crore PAT (+143% YoY)—all-time highs. But the profit surge rests on a non-repeatable gas sourcing arbitrage: HPHT gas at USD 9 versus spot USD 16–20. Volume growth of 8% YoY contradicts the prior 30%+ FY27 guidance. Management has reset FY27 volume to 250 MMSCM (11.6% growth) and expects EBITDA/SCM to normalize to ₹7–8 next quarter versus Q1's exceptional ₹10/SCM. The verdict: a good operational quarter overshadowed by windfall profit and execution slippage on volume.
The Quarter, Unmuffled
Record revenue and profit on the face of it. But a more honest reading: a windfall-driven quarter overshadowed by a fundamental miss on volume. The profit scale (₹33.8 Cr PAT) reflects Q1's exceptional EBITDA/SCM of ~₹10—a sourcing arbitrage that management has been explicit will not repeat. CEO M.K. Sharma: 'We hope and pray, but we can't guarantee 19% always. It will be definitely subdued going forward, not to this extent.' FY27 guidance for the next three quarters: ₹7–8 per SCM. That margin cliff defines the earnings quality.
₹33.8 Cr
+142.9% YoY; driven by ₹10/SCM windfall
~₹10
19% EBITDA margin; non-repeatable per CEO
₹7–8
Next 3 quarters; ₹2–3 margin reset
Where the Margin Came From
IRM Energy sources gas from four channels: APM (21%), HPHT (35%), long-term contracts (32%), and spot (1%). Q1's 19% EBITDA margin benefited from an HPHT arbitrage window: the company locked volumes at USD 9 per MMBTU while spot Brent traded USD 16–20. That pricing gap was the margin multiplier. HPHT supply is contractually locked through 28 January 2027; after that date, sourcing costs reprice. CFO and CEO both caveated the ₹7–8 guidance heavily: it assumes continued favorable long-term contract pricing from GSPC and Shell (both locked through 2030) and assumes Opex optimization holds. No structural reason to expect 19% margins again.
Sourcing is one of the things which has given us a better margin in SCM-wise, and going forward also, this HPHT sourcing will continue up to 28 January also.
Volume: The Miss That Matters
Q1 volume of 50.9 MMSCM grew 8% YoY. In context: management had guided for 30%+ volume growth in FY27 during the FY2026 earnings calls, driven by 'aggressive infrastructure expansion.' On this call, FY27 guidance has been reset to 250 MMSCM, implying just 11.6% growth versus FY26's 224 MMSCM. That is a material downgrade, and it surfaces three headwinds:
Industrial segment allocation cut
PNG industrial volumes down ~80% since 9 March 2026 (geopolitical supply disruption). Fatehgarh Sahib contributes 38% of overall profit.
Contingent on NGT order implementation by Punjab govt (currently in elections). Timeline uncertain.
Volume growth execution below guidance
CNG +22% YoY, CNG commercial +75% YoY (strong). But total volume only +8% YoY. Implies domestic PNG, industrial, and some CNG segments underperformed.
Namakkal/Trichy ramp-up (target +77% to 25–30 MMSCM) must offset Banaskantha saturation (network mature, strategy to 'let dealers stabilize' rather than add stations).
Gas pricing volatility and capex execution
₹250 Cr capex FY27 (₹150 Cr Namakkal/Trichy, ₹50 Cr each for Banaskantha, Diu, Fatehgarh) is aggressive. Q1 capex ₹67 Cr on track, but execution risk on lower-margin region (Namakkal 15% margin vs. Banaskantha higher).
TNSTC deal (80 buses operational, 200+ pipeline) is fast-deploying catalyst. GAIL/IOC pipeline integration (9–18 months) will unlock sourcing efficiency. Structural risk if volumes don't materialize.
Claims vs. Delivered: The Verdict
Highest ever quarterly revenue and profitability
Volume growth accelerating; CNG +22% YoY
EBITDA/SCM margins at 19% sustainable; hope to improve further
Highest ever quarterly revenue and profitability
SupportedRevenue ₹354.7 Cr (+24% YoY), PAT ₹33.8 Cr (+143% YoY), EBITDA ₹61.7 Cr, all confirmed as all-time highs.
Volume growth accelerating; CNG +22% YoY
ContradictedTotal volume 50.9 MMSCM (+8% YoY) misses prior 30%+ FY27 guidance. CNG and CNG commercial strong (+22%, +75% YoY), but offset by industrial slump (down ~80%) and other segments underperforming.
EBITDA/SCM margins of ₹10 (19% margin) sustainable
OverstatedCEO explicitly says 'highly optimistic to repeat; will be subdued going forward.' Next 3Q expect ₹7–8/SCM. Q1 windfall from HPHT pricing USD 9 vs. spot USD 16–20, non-repeatable per contract expiry 28 Jan 2027.
What Changed on This Call
The Bull-Bear Ledger
Record revenue & profit; CNG penetration accelerating (+22% YoY)
Network expansion on pace: 153 CNG stations (+37% YoY), 564 dispensing points, PNG domestic +13% YoY
Long-term gas contracts (GSPC, Shell) locked through 2030 provide pricing cushion even if Brent normalizes
Namakkal/Trichy greenfield runway: ₹150 Cr capex, TNSTC fleet (80→200+ buses), commercial PNG boom (Diu: hotels, restaurants now on PNG)
NGT order catalyst: Industrial volume recovery in Fatehgarh if Punjab govt implements (Sep 2026 visibility)
Volume growth 8% YoY vs. prior 30%+ guidance signals execution slippage
Q1 profit windfall-driven (₹10/SCM HPHT arbitrage, non-repeatable); margin cliff to ₹7–8 next 3Q
Gas pricing normalization risk: If Brent falls, HPHT arbitrage erodes; HPHT contract expires 28 Jan 2027 (re-pricing risk)
Industrial segment down ~80% (38% of profit); recovery contingent on Punjab govt NGT implementation (elections underway, timing uncertain)
Namakkal/Trichy execution risk: Lower-margin region (15% vs. Banaskantha 18–20%), unproven scale-up, ₹150 Cr capex bet
Banaskantha saturation: Network mature, 48% of volume, strategy to slow station additions (10–15 FY27 vs. 37 Q1) to let dealers stabilize
Risks, Ranked by Holder Concern
Gas pricing volatility & HPHT arbitrage collapse
HighQ1 margin ₹10/SCM rests on HPHT at USD 9 vs. spot USD 16–20. If Brent normalizes, arbitrage window closes rapidly. HPHT contract expires 28 Jan 2027; repricing could shift sourcing mix and force margin compression below ₹6–7 guidance. Even with long-term contracts (GSPC/Shell to 2030), spot/HPHT exposure (~36% of sourcing) is material.
Industrial volume recovery contingent on Punjab govt NGT implementation
HighFatehgarh Sahib industrial volumes are down ~80% (NGT order issued Feb 2026, but war disruption 9 March 2026 triggered supply cut). Recovery depends on Punjab govt enforcing CTE/CTO restrictions post-NGT. Govt is currently in elections; timing is uncertain. Fatehgarh contributes 38% of overall profit. Delay of 6–12 months could erode confidence in recovery story.
Namakkal/Trichy execution and regional margin dilution
MediumFY27 volume target of 25–30 MMSCM (+77% vs. FY26 14.2) requires successful ramp-up of ₹150 Cr capex + TNSTC deal scale-up + commercial PNG conversions. Region has 15% EBITDA margin vs. Banaskantha's ~18–20%. If volumes don't materialize or execution slips, overall EBITDA/SCM guidance of ₹6–7 could compress. TNSTC deal (80 buses operational, 200+ potential) is near-term catalyst but not yet proven at scale.
EBITDA/SCM guidance sustainability (₹6–7 next 3Q)
HighGuidance assumes continued favorable GSPC/Shell contract pricing (locked 2030), Opex optimization holds, and Namakkal/Trichy execution delivers. If gas sourcing costs rise (contract repricing post-2027), or Opex efficiency plateaus, or Namakkal underperforms, EBITDA/SCM could fall below ₹6–7. CEO candor on 'can't guarantee' suggests internal uncertainty; any miss would be a credibility hit.
Banaskantha saturation and geographic dependency
Medium48% of Q1 volume, 46% of profit concentrated in Banaskantha. Network mature; strategy to slow station additions and 'let dealers stabilize.' Geographic concentration plus strategy to de-prioritize expansion is a red flag for saturating market. Growth must come from Namakkal/Trichy and NGT recovery; both unproven.
How the Street Is Positioned
Price action & valuation: IRM Energy trades at ₹294.15 (as of 14 August 2026), 19.83% below its all-time high, but 77.84% above its 52-week low. The stock is above SMA20 (₹272.94), SMA50 (₹268.5), and SMA200 (₹265.03). However, RSI is at 78.7—an overbought signal suggesting pullback risk from current levels. Result reaction was mixed but held positive: day 1 post-announcement −0.34% (delivery 62.7%), rebounded day 3 +3.26%, and settled day 5 at +0.99%. The street took the profit print positively but tempered enthusiasm—consistent with our read that the windfall drives the quarter, not operational leverage.
Institutional flows signal caution: FII ownership flat at 1.59% (Q1 vs. Q4 FY26). DII ownership retreated QoQ from 3.57% to 1.71%—a −1.86pp shift. Promoters added 0.67pp to 50.74%. The DII trim suggests domestic institutions are trimming exposure post-result, perhaps reading the windfall profit and volume miss the same way we do. Bulk/block activity: HRTI and JUNOMONETA executed multiple trades in May 2026 (₹300–323 price range), with buy-sell pairs suggesting portfolio rebalancing rather than conviction directional moves. No insider selling near the highs; no red flags on promoter-related entities.
The Debate
What to Watch Next
1 · NGT industrial recovery (Sep 2026 target)
Punjab govt implementation of NGT order (issued Feb 2026) for Fatehgarh Sahib industrial segment. If enforced on schedule, industrial volumes could jump from ~80% deficit to near-normal by Oct–Nov 2026. Fatehgarh is 38% of profit; recovery could add ₹5–8 Cr EBITDA. Watch for govt announcements post-elections; any delay extends headwind.
2 · Namakkal/Trichy Q2–Q3 ramp-up & margin profile
FY27 target 25–30 MMSCM (+77% vs. FY26). Q1 delivered 6 MMSCM (+102% YoY). TNSTC deal (80 buses operational, 200+ pipeline) and commercial PNG (Sipcot industrial zone target) are near-term levers. Watch Q2 results for volume trajectory and actual EBITDA/SCM (margin test). If volumes accelerate but margins compress below 15%, regional bet is underperforming.
3 · Gas pricing trend & HPHT repricing (Jan 2027 contract expiry)
HPHT long-term contract expires 28 Jan 2027. If Brent prices have normalized by then (likely if geopolitical tensions ease), repricing could reset IRM's sourcing cost upwards. Watch Brent trend and Q3 FY27 earnings call commentary on repricing outcome. Any significant re-pricing would invalidate ₹6–7 EBITDA/SCM guidance.
The Number to Track
Organic EBITDA/SCM next quarter. Q1 was ₹10 (windfall); FY27 guidance is ₹7–8. The street is betting that ₹7–8 holds even with Namakkal (lower margin) scaling up and gas pricing normalizing. If Q2 reports come in at <₹7, or if management downgrades FY27 guidance, the margin story breaks. EBITDA/SCM is the single metric that will define whether this is a sustainable step-change in profitability or a one-quarter blip.
Record revenue and profit on the face of it. But the quarter is defined by margin windfall (HPHT sourcing arbitrage) and volume miss (8% vs. 30% prior guidance). Management has reset expectations honestly: next three quarters, expect ₹7–8 per SCM, not ₹10. That's the story—and it's more grounded than the headline.
Stock is overbought (RSI 78.7), domestic institutions are trimming (DII −1.86pp QoQ), and price is −20% from all-time high. Catalysts exist (Namakkal ramp, NGT recovery, long-term sourcing locked), but none are yet proven in delivered results. Hold and wait for Q2 to confirm guidance; don't chase at these levels. The margin test comes next quarter.
Record quarter, but margins windfall; volume miss undercuts 30% prior target
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Hold
confidence 6/10
Grade B
FY27 volume guidance 250 MMSCM (11.6% growth) falls short of prior 30%+ target. EBITDA/SCM raised to ₹6-7 but heavily caveated.
Cautiously Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Optimistic
multi-year
Record Q1 (₹354.7 Cr revenue, ₹33.8 Cr PAT) driven by windfall gas sourcing, not operational leverage. Management explicitly says 19% margins non-repeatable; expects ₹6-7 EBITDA/SCM next 3Q. Volume growth 8% YoY vs. prior 30%+ guidance signals execution slippage. Key risk: gas pricing normalization + Namakkal/Trichy execution.
₹354.7 Cr
Revenue · +24.3% YoY₹33.8 Cr
Reported PAT · +142.9% YoYExpanding
Margins · vs guidance: MixedDid the claims hold up?
Highest ever quarterly revenue and profitability
MET₹354.7 Cr revenue (+24% YoY), ₹33.8 Cr PAT (+143% YoY) confirmed; ₹62 Cr EBITDA all-time highs.
Volume growth accelerating; CNG +22% YoY
MISSTotal volume 50.9 MMSCM (+8% YoY) misses prior 30%+ FY27 guidance. CNG +22% + CNG commercial +75% YoY drive mix.
EBITDA/SCM margins at 19% sustainable going forward
OVERSTATEDQ1 achieved ~₹10/SCM (19% margin) via HPHT at USD 9 vs. spot USD 16-20. CEO: 'can't guarantee 19%'; expects ₹7-8 next 3Q.
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Volume growth FY27 target
DowngradePrior 30%+ → FY27 ~11.6% (250 MMSCM vs. 224 FY26). Q1 actual 8% YoY; FY27 guidance 10-12%. Implicit material downgrade.
EBITDA/SCM guidance
UpgradePrior ₹5.3-5.5 → ₹6-7 FY27 (caveated). Q1 windfall ₹10 explicitly non-repeatable; next 3Q expect ₹7-8.
CapEx scope clarity
NeutralPrior ₹150 Cr (Namakkal/Trichy only) → ₹250 Cr FY27 all GAs (150 NT + 50 Banaskantha + 50 Diu + 50 Fatehgarh). On track.
Namakkal/Trichy strategy
NewIntroduced as 'aspirational GA' with ₹150 Cr CapEx + TNSTC deal (80→200+ buses) + commercial PNG conversions as near-term volume catalyst.
The Q&A
Analysts probed heavily on EBITDA/SCM sustainability (Nilesh HDFC, Saket Kapoor) given Q1 windfall. Management held ground on ₹6-7 guidance but conceded Q1 non-repeatable. Pavan (RT Capital) challenged whether Namakkal volume ramp would dilute overall margins; CFO reaffirmed ₹7/SCM accounts for mix shift. No evasion on major points; direct Q&A.
EBITDA/SCM sustainability — Kiran Gadge, Knightstone Capital
AnsweredNo one-time items. Improvement from pricing optimization + gas sourcing + Opex efficiency. FY27 remaining 3 quarters expect ₹7-8/SCM, ~25% revenue growth.
Margin resilience post-Q1 windfall — Nilesh Ghuge, HDFC Securities
PartialSourcing is key. GSPC & Shell long-term contracts locked to 2030 at restricted prices despite USD 16-20 spot. EBITDA per SCM will continue 1-2 more quarters; NGT orders will help industrial volumes.
Volume growth FY27 — Pavan Kumar, RT Capital
AnsweredEBITDA guidance ₹7 per SCM overall accounts for regional mix. On track.
Pricing strategy & pass-through — Abhir Pandit, Old Bridge Mutual
AnsweredPrice hikes always linked to sourcing. Brent cooling; won't pass further to avoid market loss. Sourcing formula has 2–3 month lag, so some tailwinds continue. Price reduction not possible currently.
Fatehgarh Sahib NGT impact — Abhir Pandit, Old Bridge Mutual
PartialWar broke out 9 March; supply cut started immediately. NGT implementation dependent on Punjab govt (currently in elections). Natural growth happening; new industries seeking gas connections. Once NGT enforced, volumes should ramp nicely.
Q1 margin repeatability — Saket Kapoor, Kapoor & Co
AnsweredHighly optimistic to say same performance will repeat. It'll be definitely subdued going forward, not to this extent. Hope and pray, but can't guarantee 19% always.
Namakkal/Trichy ramp & TNSTC deal — Saket Kapoor, Kapoor & Co
Answered₹150 Cr CapEx allocated to Namakkal/Trichy. TNSTC: 80 buses operational, potential for 200+ more. CNG is profit & volume builder. Namakkal/Trichy is aspirational GA; expect to be pride GA in 1–2 years.
FY27 volume growth outlook — Saket Kapoor, Kapoor & Co
AnsweredFY27 expect 250 MMSCM minimum 10% growth. Also increasing sourcing sources & mapped supply for rest of year carefully.
Guidance
FY27: ~25% top-line growth (conservative: 20%)
MediumQ1 achieved 24% YoY. Dependent on volume growth 10–12% + pricing realization stability (already took 15% hike). Realistic vs. 30%+ prior volume guidance.
EBITDA/SCM FY27: ₹6–7 (vs. prior ₹5.3–5.5)
MediumQ1 windfall ₹10 non-repeatable. Next 3Q expect ₹7–8. Dependent on continued GSPC/Shell long-term sourcing + Opex optimization. HPHT contract expires 28 Jan 2027 (re-pricing risk).
EBITDA margin FY27: 'Better than 19% not guaranteed'
LowCEO: 'We hope and pray, but can't guarantee 19% always; will be subdued going forward, not to this extent.' Implies 16–18% range for FY27 average.
FY27: ₹250 Cr total (₹150 Namakkal/Trichy, ₹50 each others)
HighQ1 ₹67 Cr; cumulative ₹1,090 Cr. Utilizing IPO proceeds (₹337 Cr used, ₹159 Cr remaining) + ploughed-back profits. On track.
Risks the call surfaced
Gas pricing volatility
HighQ1 margins benefited from HPHT pricing at USD 9 vs. spot USD 16–20. If Brent prices fall, cost advantage erodes rapidly. HPHT long-term contract expires 28 Jan 2027.
Industrial volume recovery risk
HighPNG industrial volumes down ~80% due to 9 March 2026 govt allocation cut (geopolitical supply disruption). Recovery tied to NGT order implementation by Punjab govt. Fatehgarh Sahib contributes 38% of profit; downside if recovery delayed.
Namakkal/Trichy execution risk
MediumFY27 volume target 25–30 MMSCM (+77% vs. FY26 14.2) requires ₹150 Cr CapEx + market ramp. Lower margins (15% vs. Banaskantha) will dilute overall EBITDA/SCM if scaling underperforms. TNSTC deal (80→200+ buses) is critical near-term catalyst.
EBITDA/SCM guidance sustainability
HighQ1 achieved ~₹10/SCM (19% EBITDA margin) due to windfall HPHT pricing. FY27 guidance ₹6–7 assumes continued favorable sourcing + Opex optimization. CEO explicitly says 'can't guarantee 19% always; will be subdued.' Risk if structural costs rise or gas contracts reset unfavorably.
Promoter capital allocation
Low2% license fee to promoters (~₹20–25 Cr/year) is disclosed but subject to potential change. No formal commitment on capital allocation priority (growth vs. returns).
Management
Score 7/10. Direct, candid Q&A with multiple follow-ups answered directly. CEO explicitly tempers expectations on Q1 repeatability ('highly optimistic to repeat'). Hedges strategically ('can't guarantee 19%', 'figures very difficult'). Clear on sourcing strategy & regional roadmaps. Minor deflection on Diu beach revenue (referred to finance). Strong Q1 delivery: ₹354.7 Cr revenue (+24% YoY), ₹33.8 Cr PAT (+143% YoY). Volume growth 8% YoY misses prior 30%+ guidance but on track for 10–12% FY27. CNG station target (~36 prior vs. ~41 added Q1) achieved. CapEx on pace (₹67 Cr Q1; ₹250 Cr plan feasible).
1 · Sep 2026
Industrial volume recovery via NGT order implementation in Fatehgarh Sahib
2 · Q2–Q3 FY27
TNSTC bus fleet ramp-up (80→200+); Namakkal/Trichy volume acceleration & commercial PNG conversions
3 · Jan 2027
HPHT long-term contract expires (28 Jan); gas sourcing cost re-pricing risk
Key risk: gas pricing normalization + Namakkal/Trichy execution.